Russian officials released limited info about the March 2 incursion in #Bryansk Oblast but failed to provide clarity about what actually transpired. #Putin did not address the reported incident in a meeting with the Russian Security Council, per a readout. isw.pub/UkrWar030323
2/ The head of the Russian Volunteer Corps, which claimed responsibility for the incursion, claimed on March 3 that Ukrainian officials greenlit the incursion. isw.pub/UkrWar030323
3/ The #Russian Investigative Committee did not corroborate the Volunteer Corps’ claim, instead announcing that it has initiated an investigation into the actions of “Ukrainian saboteurs.”
4/ #Russian sources widely claimed that #Putin held the meeting to discuss anti-terrorist security measures in response to the #Bryansk incident, but the readout of the meeting instead recycled a number of tired #Kremlin talking points...
5/ ...and did not use this platform to introduce any new objectives or means for Russian military operations in #Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar030323
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#Russian Defense Minister Sergei #Shoigu met with Eastern Military District Commander Colonel General Rustam Muradov in western #Donetsk Oblast, likely to assess the extent of Russian losses around #Vuhledar & the possibility of a further offensive there.🧵isw.pub/UkrWar03042023
2/ #Russian forces suffered catastrophic losses in a recent three-week offensive near #Vuhledar, and severe personnel and equipment constraints are likely preventing Russian forces from making even marginal advances in this direction.
3/ The #Russian MoD may be considering whether transferring reserves of manpower and equipment to the #Vuhledar area for renewed offensive operations is a worthwhile effort.
📌A turning movement aims to force the abandonment of prepared defensive positions & is different from an encirclement, which aims to trap/destroy enemy forces. #Russia's slow & gradual advances don't suggest they will soon encircle #Bakhmut, much less take it by frontal assaults
2/ The #Russians have, rather, managed to push close enough to critical ground lines of communication from the northeast to threaten Ukrainian withdrawal routes from #Bakhmut in a classical turning movement.
3/ The Russians may have intended to encircle #Ukrainian forces in #Bakhmut, but the Ukrainian command has signaled that it will likely withdraw rather than risk an encirclement.
#Donetsk: Russian forces continued ground attacks in and around #Bakhmut as Ukrainian forces appeared to prepare for a controlled withdrawal from at least parts of the city. Russian forces continued ground attacks in the #Avdiivka-Donetsk City area. isw.pub/UkrWar030323
2/ Geolocated footage posted on March 3 shows that Russian forces have made incremental advances on the NW outskirts of #Donetsk City near #Vodyane. Russian sources continued to report on Russian efforts to seize the remainder of western #Marinka. isw.pub/UkrWar030323
3/ Western #Donetsk: Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast on March 3.
While #Putin did not address the reported situation in #Bryansk Oblast, #Russia in the read-out of the meeting, he did use his remarks to outline new, albeit limited, support measures for Russian soldiers serving in #Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar030323
2/ #Putin announced that all families of soldiers killed in #Ukraine will receive the standard insurance coverage provided for by law, a one-time lump sum allowance of 7.4 million rubles (98,143 USD).
3/ #Putin also called for “appropriate payments” for those wounded in #Ukraine in the form of insurance payments and one-time injury payments. isw.pub/UkrWar030323
#Russian forces have been fighting to take #Bakhmut, a city with a pre-war population of roughly 70,000 people, since roughly May 2022 and have suffered devastating casualties in the process. (1/7) isw.pub/UkrWar030323
2/ Geolocated footage posted on March 3 confirms that #Ukrainian troops have destroyed two critical bridges in the #Bakhmut area—one across the Bakhmutivka River in northeastern Bakhmut and one along the Khromove-Bakhmut route just west of Bakhmut.
3/ The preemptive destruction of bridges is likely an indicator that Ukrainian troops may seek to inhibit #Russian movement in eastern #Bakhmut and limit potential westward Russian egress routes out of Bakhmut.