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Mar 5 • 3 tweets • 3 min read
W. #Luhansk/E. #Kharkiv

Russian forces reportedly continued offensive operations near #Svatove & #Kreminna. The reported Ukrainian evacuation of vulnerable citizens from #Kupyansk does not suggest #Ukraine believes that Russian forces threaten the city. isw.pub/UkrWar03042023
2/ Geolocated footage published on March 4 indicates that #Russian forces likely secured gains north of Novovodyane (16km southwest of #Svatove).
3/ A Russian commander inaccurately framed Russian operations in #Luhansk and #Kharkiv oblasts as limited in scope, likely to set informational conditions for the potential culmination of the Russian offensive in this sector of the frontline. isw.pub/UkrWar03042023

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
Mar 6
#Russia's offensive to capture #Bakhmut will likely culminate whether its forces capture the city or not. The #Russian military will likely struggle to maintain any subsequent offensive operations for some months, giving #Ukraine a chance to seize the initiative. 🧵(1/9)
2/ The conventional #Russian military recently massed and lost significant numbers of mobilized personnel for a since-culminated offensive push near #Vuhledar, #Donetsk Oblast. isw.pub/UkrWar03052023
3/ Russian "major" offensives in the #Kupyansk, #Svatove, and #Kreminna directions in #Luhansk Oblast are also failing to generate any significant successes on the frontlines.
Read 9 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 6
#Donetsk Oblast:

#Ukrainian forces may be withdrawing from their positions on the eastern bank of the #Bakhmutka River given recent geolocated footage of the destruction of the railway bridge over the river in northeastern #Bakhmut. isw.pub/UkrWar03052023 ImageImage
2/ #Russian war correspondents and milbloggers claimed that Russian forces captured eastern, northern, and southern parts of #Bakhmut on March 5 and claimed to be reporting from positions in eastern Bakhmut, but @TheStudyofWar cannot independently verify these claims at this time Image
3/ Geolocated footage showed that #WagnerGroup forces continued to make advances in northeastern #Bakhmut and advanced near the Stupky railway station on March 5.
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 6
NEW: #Ukrainian forces may be conducting a limited fighting withdrawal in eastern #Bakhmut & are continuing to inflict high casualties against advancing #Russian forces, but it is still too early to assess Ukrainian intentions concerning a complete withdrawal from the city. 🧵1/6
2/ The #Ukrainian defense of #Bakhmut remains strategically sound as it continues to consume #Russian manpower and equipment as long as Ukrainian forces do not suffer excessive casualties. isw.pub/UkrWar03052023
3/ The #Russian military’s attritional campaign to capture #Bakhmut has likely prompted Russian milbloggers to adopt more realistic expectations for further Russian operations in #Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar03052023
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 5
The #Wagner Group reportedly opened at least three new recruitment centers at sports clubs in #Russia between March 2-4, possibly to augment #WagnerGroup’s recruitment base after losing access to prisoner recruits. isw.pub/UkrWar03042023 Image
2/ The #Wagner Group reportedly opened at least three new recruiting centers collocated with Russian sporting clubs since #WagnerGroup financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin officially announced that Wagner launched recruiting efforts through sports clubs in #Russia on March 2.
3/ The new #Wagner recruiting centers are reportedly based at the “Dynamo” sports facility in Samara, the “Antares” Sports Club in Rostov, and the #Russian Boxing Federation building in Tyumen.
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 5
#Russian Defense Minister Sergei #Shoigu met with Eastern Military District Commander Colonel General Rustam Muradov in western #Donetsk Oblast, likely to assess the extent of Russian losses around #Vuhledar & the possibility of a further offensive there.🧵isw.pub/UkrWar03042023
2/ #Russian forces suffered catastrophic losses in a recent three-week offensive near #Vuhledar, and severe personnel and equipment constraints are likely preventing Russian forces from making even marginal advances in this direction.
3/ The #Russian MoD may be considering whether transferring reserves of manpower and equipment to the #Vuhledar area for renewed offensive operations is a worthwhile effort.
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 5
📌A turning movement aims to force the abandonment of prepared defensive positions & is different from an encirclement, which aims to trap/destroy enemy forces. #Russia's slow & gradual advances don't suggest they will soon encircle #Bakhmut, much less take it by frontal assaults
2/ The #Russians have, rather, managed to push close enough to critical ground lines of communication from the northeast to threaten Ukrainian withdrawal routes from #Bakhmut in a classical turning movement.
3/ The Russians may have intended to encircle #Ukrainian forces in #Bakhmut, but the Ukrainian command has signaled that it will likely withdraw rather than risk an encirclement.
Read 6 tweets

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