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Mar 5 • 9 tweets • 4 min read
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1-9 EIA investigation of the adjustment & the results are all about “data quality.” @EIA_One tweeted a chart showing that the adjustment factor grew with exports since 2016.
I have been talking about data quality since 2017 & I created the hashtag: #Data_Quality_Matters
2-9 Mr. @EIA_One stated that the investigation led to two causes of the rise in adjustment: exports & production. Here is a tweet from June 6, 2019:
“The growing adjustment factor (something exaggerated: production or exports)”
Also, notice the hashtag
3-9 I am going down memory lane of this “data quality” to show you that some of the results of the investigation are really old news! EIA gets crude export data from the Census bureau!
This form October 2019:
4-9 While there were mentions of data quality in 2017 on my Twitter feed, here is one that focused on the issue form 2018. While the EIA and US Congress were NOT interested in the matter at ALL, China was!
5-9 On the crude quality and mismatch with what refiners want, which led to blending:
6-9 The concerns about oil trade data is old:
7-9 This tweet on the significant negative impact of deteriorating EIA data and the rising adjustment from November 2019:
8-9 one more:
9-9 Finally, I would like to applaud the Honorable @EIA_One on his decisive and prompt decision to conduct an investigation to officially get to the bottom of this and to take the issue seriously, own it, and tweet about it with humility and supported by evidence.

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More from @anasalhajji

Anas Alhajji Profile picture
Jan 20
Short Thread
Let us go along with what some pundits are saying:
Global oil demand will peak soon & then decline:

1-4 That doesn't mean lower oil prices. It might mean, among various scenarios, ever-increasing prices. Remember, prices are about demand & S U P P L Y! #Oil
2-4 Oil investment is needed no matter what because of the declining rates in the fields. Even at 75 mb/d in 2050, all of it has to be new oil. We literally need trillions of dollars in upstream investment if oil demand declines. Imagine if NO decline!
3-4 The idea that oil companies will go bankrupt & the economies of the oil-producing countries will collapse if oil demand peaks are nonsense. Oil under the declining scenario might end up more precious than ever: the supply reaction to the idea of declining demand is large.
Read 4 tweets
Anas Alhajji Profile picture
Dec 19, 2022
Thread on Turkey’s Energy Ambitions & Regional Dominance
1-18 President Erdoğan gave an energy-focused speech last Friday in a ceremony for the capacity expansion of the Silivri Underground Natural Gas Storage Facility, which reached 4.6 billion cubic meters (162.45 bcf).
2-18 The speech highlights several energy policy issues, provides some interesting data, and most importantly, highlights the two issues that we focused on in this week's and last week’s newsletters: Relations with Russia and the desire to be a gas hub.
anasalhajjieoa.substack.com
3-18 Below are translated excerpts from the speech (from medyanotu.com ):
- “Silivri has become the largest underground gas storage facility in Europe.”
#Turkey #Natgas #Russia #Europe
Read 18 tweets
Anas Alhajji Profile picture
Dec 17, 2022
1- The Biden Administration has the right to refill the SPR as it sees fit… but to flip the story and say we sold the oil at $96 and now we are buying it in the low $70s, therefore we are making money for the taxpayer is the worst story they can tell about the SPR.
2- from an accounting point of view, adjusted for inflation, the SPR oil that was sold at $96 in today’s dollars was sold at a very large loss. Some of the oil was sold at 40 cents on the dollar.
3- The most important stories of the SPR are:

A. it prevented oil prices from going above $140/b

B. then it lowered prices significantly worldwide, not only in the US.
Now count the economic growth benefits from that

C. It curbed Putin’s influence significantly
Read 4 tweets
Anas Alhajji Profile picture
Nov 21, 2022
Thread on OPEC
For those who are attacking OPEC. Hear me out:
1-9 I am a strong believer in free markets. Yet, natural resource economics dictate that natural resources need market management

2-9 Where did the idea of #OPEC come from?
Yep.. Texas Railroad Commission!
#Oil #OOTT
3-9 Just so you know in case you have no idea, Oklahoma and Texas used the armed national guards to occupy privately owned oil fields so both states can manage the oil market! This happened in the United States of America!
4-9 Has the US federal government managed the oil market? Yes, and for a long time via different means. For example, the US federal government adopted a communist-style price control that controlled all energy prices throughout the 1970s.
cato.org/commentary/rem…
Read 8 tweets
Anas Alhajji Profile picture
Nov 16, 2022
Thread 🩸

1- To think #Russia & #oil traders have not prepared for the Dec 5 deadline is naive.. however, everyone wants to take advantage of the weeks and days before the deadline.. activities increase, then decline, making the deadline looks more effective than reality #Russia
2- Remember:
A- the December 5 deadline is for crude only … not petroleum products

B- Five European countries are exempt in one way or the other

Question: do sanctions apply to oil via rails and trucks? 😳👿
3- Russia has already built the infrastructure to do what Iran has done for years, but on a larger scale… the ban and the price cap applies only to “official” imports…
Read 4 tweets
Anas Alhajji Profile picture
Nov 4, 2022
On Latin America turning left:
1-5 Leftists rely on populism & the mobilization of the poor, who are the majority in society. This requires spending huge money on this group. Where does the money come from in light of the dwindling private sector and the flight of capital? #oil
2-5 Solution? Interfere in the affairs of the NOCs in two ways: The first is to employ their supporters to satisfy them regardless of their competencies. This leads to higher company costs and lower efficiencies, which leads to permanent deterioration in production.
3-5 The second is milking the company to the point that it cannot spend on exploration and production, and sometimes even maintenance. For this, the decline in production becomes an inevitable result, and the evidence from the aforementioned countries and others is numerous.
Read 5 tweets

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