Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Natgas

Most recents (24)

#natgas market can get lost in the weeds at times. Right now seems like one of those times. L48 NG production has never had a larger capacity to decline...
NG Shale Production, which declines much more precipitously than conventional NG production, has never been larger on a nominal (~81 Bcf/d) or percentage of total basis (~80%)
Said another way, L48 NG production's base decline rates have never been higher with 15-18 Bcf/d of production having to be replaced each year by new wells.
Read 8 tweets
Since the recent event with arguably the largest echo was the #FOMC decision, it's called - what else- "The Pause That Refreshes"
#FederalReserve Image
The first thing to notice is that goods prices have broadly stabilised and volumes are fairly flat - in other words, #NGDP has ceased its torrid pace of increase. Service prices are still elevated but #payroll cost increase is slowing.
2/n Image
The #ISM #PMI showed an uptick but is still below 50 which implies that revenue growth is NOT about to accelerate again. Again, slower #inflation & flatline volume = an end to the boom, but not yet a bust.
3/n Image
Read 15 tweets

With US #natgas trading at 2.5y low and wek fundamentals, there is a big growth in positions in gas ETFs: #BOIL (2x levered) and #UNG.

Is it driven by retail bottom pickers? The real story is more complicated. Here……
For UNG and BOIL we can also see the increase in the share count and market cap ahead of the roll.

What could be the motive for a professional fund to short ETF, instead of doing the same trade via futures?

Aside from mandates/simplicity a fund might expect the ETF doing……
Does it matter if the shares are created to satisfy the demand of the short sellers or on demand from bottom pickers (longs)?

I believe it may since the effect on the final futures position could be different:
•When ETF is created in response to demand from the long side (e.g.……
Read 3 tweets
My latest. Last week, @AirDistrict approved regs banning #natgas furnaces & water heaters. It's latest example of CA policymakers forcing residents to use electricity instead of gas. These regs are happening while CA's electricity costs are soaring. 1/x…
Two weeks before the BAAQMD passed its ban on natural gas appliances, the Energy Information Administration released data showing that California’s residential electricity prices jumped by 14.7% in 2022. 2/x
That’s only the latest increase. Since 2008, when @Schwarzenegger signed an executive order requiring the state’s utilities to obtain a third of the electricity they sell from renewables by 2020, all-sector electricity prices in California have soared by 80%. 3/x
Read 14 tweets
Thought of the day: How many don't understand they own #cyclical equities? And the cycle peaked out in 2022 for 90% and contagion is the order of the day in 2023? #natgas #lumber #coal #oil #uranium #ironore #tin #nickel
#cyclical means you exit as the cycle matures .....that was 2022 if not 2021 for 80% of #commodities. Then 60% will experience a 55-75% fall in spot prices. Then one revisits in 2H 2023 or 2024 for reentry. If one holds through the cycle they don't understand what they own.
In short stupidity holds

#Natgas stocks post the $10 peak.....bottom < $2

#Coal stocks post the $450 plus ton peaks.....bottom < $130
Read 3 tweets
The EIA released its Annual Energy Outlook
Here's 15 forecasts that went right and wrong over the past decade - a thread #oott #oil #natgas #renewables
Oil Demand: In 2011, oil demand was forecast to be 19.1 Mbbls/d by 2022 (actual: 17.7 Mbbls/d) Image
Part of the energy revisions reflect changes to U.S. population growth (which has been revised down 6% since the 2018 - the first year with forecasts out to 2050). By 2050, U.S. population is expected now at 370 mln vs. 395 mln people previously. Image
U.S. Crude Supply: In 2011, oil production was forecast to be 3.8 Mbbls/d by 2022 (actual: 9.6 Mbbls/d).
2050 production forecast has been revised 5% higher y/y to 11.2 Mbbls/d. But overall, for the next ~30 years, the EIA expects production to remain mostly flat #permian #bakken Image
Read 15 tweets
This yr on Twitter we've seen an increase in individuals who specialize in Natural Gas, some have included "#NatGas" in their profile names.
I'm sharing this thread 🧵to help distinguish between the guessing or lies by applying sound technical analysis & reasoning to $Ung & $BOIL Image
NatGas aka the WidowMaker isn't an island unaffected by overall Market Stress esp aftr showing more weakness since last November than any other commodity.
And now that Oil $cl $Wti has weakened as i Tweeted March 2 there's more pressure on energy overall. Image
Many "Fundamental" arguments have little or nothing to do with price aft a Market Correction.
$UNG #NATGAS $BOIL are not an exception.
In addition, they are not a good Long-Term Hold.
These should be Traded Short-Term and only with sound technical awareness and caution. Image
Read 6 tweets
PEs < 3x there are hundreds out there in Frontier markets, many growing eps at 20% per year plus. Let alone Fossil fuel stocks.
Remember a < 3x on peak #commodity spots is > 15x on spot lows
Note many think #Coal #Natgas & #oil stocks looked cheap on 2022 low PEs, in fact 65% were expensive.

#coal avg prices will drop by 50-65% over the next 2 years Vs 2022 average.

#natgas avg prices will drop by 50-60% over 2023 Vs 2023 avg.

#oil likely 30%

The market values
Read 4 tweets
Observed power nominations on pipes in the Southeast rose to 6.4-6.5 Bcf/d the last two days, and these will likely move higher as the cold sets in. #natgas #ongt Image
As demand began to increase, South Central gas flows to the Southeast recovered to 8 Bcf/d in the past two days. #natgas #ongt Image
Along the South Central to Southeast corridor, Florida Gas Transmission is now flowing 2.2-2.3 Bcf/d eastbound across the Mississippi state line. #natgas #ongt Image
Read 4 tweets
🗓 Daily #Macro & Market Recap 📰 Let's dive into a quick thread recapping some of today's market moving events 🗞, data 📝, & charts 📈📉 for Friday (03/03/23)… 🧵/👇🏼

$SPY $SPX ⬆️✅
$QQQ $NDX ⬆️✅
$DIA $DJIA ⬆️✅
$IWM $RUT ⬆️✅

#stocks #StockMarket #bonds #macro
1/🧵 Daily #StockMarket Sector Performance:

🍽 $XLP ⬆️✅
🏥 $XLV ⬆️✅
🏘 $XLRE ⬆️✅
📡 $XLC ⬆️✅
🛢 $XLE ⬆️✅
🏭 $XLI ⬆️✅
🤖 $XLK ⬆️✅
🏨 $XLY ⬆️✅
🏦 $XLF ⬆️✅
🪵 $XLB ⬆️✅
⚡️ $XLU ⬆️✅
2/🧵 Daily 🇺🇸 🏦 Treasury Market & Currency Performance: 💵💴💶💷

$DXY ⬆️✅
$TLT ⬆️✅
$HYG ⬆️✅
3mo ⬆️✅
2yr ⬇️🔻
10yr ⬆️✅
30yr ⬆️✅

#bonds #interestrates #Currencies #macro
Read 4 tweets
#COM @USAEnergyNatGas @oilmutt @RazorOil A thread/question on #natgas and the current contango.

Markets, like natgas, where the commodity is "just in time" consumed usually exhibit backwardation. There is a plausible theory for why con tango must be rare in such markets.
The argument goes like this: owning reserves is like having an option on natgas, where the strike price of the option is the total cost of extraction and the payoff at expiry is the then spot price.

If natgas were in contango, E&Ps would have no incentive to extract . . .
or exercise this option because they could get a higher price in the future. So, there would be no production under contango. It's a similar argument as to why no one exercises and American call prior to maturity. exercises and American call prior to maturity. In this case,
Read 12 tweets
A few people have asked me why after 6 years being #bearish #natgas I’ve become vocally and aggressively #bullish - I know I give off the impression of a degenerate gambler but I do have a thesis underlying my view, I’ll do my best to share and summarise in the comments below…
1) despite common misconception, it’s not because of the weather… I’m not one to tweet about vortexes (you know who you are), crazy weather patterns, climate change or hurricanes. That’s all short term, I typically take a 9-12 month #natgas position absent of leverage…
2) it’s not to do with LNG, #freeportlng etc. - one can’t deny that has had an effect in 2022/23. But that’s exacerbated what was already in effect IMO. All upcoming projects have been priced in the contango curve (2024 earliest) and prod has reacted (drilling, DUC increase etc)
Read 7 tweets
These are the EIA's key forecast revisions impacting natural gas markets. Although many of the adjustments are small, it shows the directional bias within their models. Overall, negative revisions for production; upward revisions in consumption for 2024, as NYMEX prices come down Image
LNG volumes are taking longer to pick-up in early 2023 but ultimately are still expected to grow to 13.5 bcf/d by YE 2024 #LNG #Natgas Image
Natural gas consumption doesn't quite reach levels seen last year (in both winter and summer months). This is typically the result of weather; with current demand being revised down slightly from last month Image
Read 5 tweets
🔁 Antero Resource ($AR) 💮 Gas Natural para exportación LNG.…

Nueva idea en largo #trading - Esquemáticamente en #TradingView, gracias si podéis darle un "Boost".
🔸Inventario de #GasNatural en terminales de #GNL en la #UE a partir del 28 de enero. Alguien está empezando a posicionarse en $UNG... Image
🔸Energy investors flee the market, dumping their natural gas-weighted stocks as unseasonably warm weather pushes $UNG prices lower, I am taking the opportunity to increase my natural gas holdings. European prices remain at high levels, and #LNG exports remain highly profitable. Image
Read 6 tweets
Columbia Gulf will be conducting pigging runs “between Hampshire and Corinth Compressor Stations and between Delhi and Alexandria Compressor Stations beginning Wednesday, February 1, 2023, through Thursday, February 9, 2023.” #natgas #ongt Image
Flows at the Corinth Segment could be reduced as much as 0.8 Bcf/d during the event, depending how low OpCap is during the maintenance period. #natgas #ongt Image
Alexandra CS flows will also face limitations, with the OpCap range of 1.95-2.5 Bcf/d coming in well below the recent throughput of 2.6-2.8 Bcf/d. #natgas #ongt Image
Read 4 tweets
Freeport LNG is now waiting for FERC approval to start cooling down a portion of their Loop 1 LNG line, which will take 11 days after they are given clearance to begin. As of this morning, Coastal Bend was not delivering any gas into the facility. #natgas #ongt #lng
Marginal feed gas flows to Freeport could occur at some point in February, but LNG Storage Tank 3 will likely remain down for an extended period as there is still quite a bit of work tied to that portion of the terminal. #natgas #ongt #lng
We cannot yet determine when a restart will truly occur, but the rough timeline for reaching 2 Bcf/d will be 1-2 months from that point (based on the initial November plan that Freeport rolled out.) #natgas #ongt #lng
Read 4 tweets
What is California is getting itself into?
#ongt #natgas
Bay Area bureaucrats and politicians are talking about banning even #naturalgas water heaters and furnaces... Electric heating costs are higher. San Francisco will pay 2.5x more for electric heating than gas.…
3/ and San Diego to make a retroactive mandate costing consumers tens of thousands of dollars whether they want #NaturalGas or not, all the while putting additional strain on the electricity grid.
Read 8 tweets
At first glance, Nov #CPI was somewhat better-than-expected report (headline MoM slightly lower than expectations -0.1% vs 0%) and mostly in line (YoY headline, as well as MoM&YoY core).

But in the details #inflation is much weaker than gets recognized.

A thread.

Unadjusted headline #CPI is down for the 2nd M in a row with -0.31% which is the lowest print since Apr 2020 (-0.67%).

In the last 8 yrs there were only 2M with materially lower prints (Apr 2020 and Jan 2015 -0.47%)!

2/17 Image
Unadjusted headline in Dec 2022 (-0.31%) is the 6th lowest in 8 yrs but 3 of these prints were almost identical (Dec 2018 -0.32%, Nov 2018 -0.33% and Dec 2015 -0.34%).

In Apr 2020 the economy was on forced lockdown, and in 2015/late 2018 #deflation was a problem.

Read 17 tweets
Grid update: Demand forecast is much lower than last night but ERCOT missed its forecast by 23% last night so that's cold comfort. A miss that bad tonight & conditions would be tight. Reports of gas supply ⬇️ 8bcf overall, ~3bcf in the Permian. Gas/coal outages ~9.5GW. #txlege 1/
Add it all up & still low chance of outages tonight, though higher than last night, esp. given the massive demand miss. #ERCOT and @PUCTX simply have to get better at forecasting demand and improving #energyefficiency. More on that here: 2/…
I said coming into this the two biggest wild card were power demand & gas supply. The drops in gas output weren't enough to cause problems yet. I don't think this level of reduction would cause outages. Keepin an eye on it though. #energytwitter #natgas 3/
Read 9 tweets
MANIPULATION - how can natty be selling off in the middle of an arctic blast?!?
1) Wx traders trade long range forecast - that's hot
2) A steep FJ calendar spread is bearish in Dec
3) Historically oversupplied

A thread

#natgas @Ronh999 @DoombergT @NatGasGuy1 @AndreasSteno
Although it is cold, that was priced in a week ago. The long term forecast is HOT - natgas wx traders are trading changes in the 6-16 day forecast, because that is where most of the forecast volatility is.
A steep January/April backwardation in the futures strip at the end of November is a significant predictor of negative price action in December. I wrote a post on this a few weeks ago.
Read 6 tweets
ERCOT’s hourly loads are projected to peak at 70.1 GW tomorrow at 8 am, which is above the peak rates seen during Winter Storm Uri in 2021 (69.2 GW.) #natgas #ongt #ercot
The ISO’s stack has evolved since Uri, and solar is expected to contribute 2.8 GW early tomorrow morning before lifting to 8 GW during the day (well above the Feb-21 rates of 1 GW.) #natgas #ongt #ercot
Meanwhile, wind generation will peak at 25 GW late this afternoon as the front blows in, but it will rapidly fall after that, with the resource projected near 12 GW as power loads peak tomorrow morning. #natgas #ongt #ercot
Read 3 tweets
PJM coal burns rose again today, reaching 27.6 GW as natural gas units ran at 41.9 GW. #natgas #ongt #pjm #power Image
Coal usage ramped last night as PJM’s wind assets weakened substantially. #natgas #ongt #pjm #power Image
PJM’s coal inventories climbed +335 GWh during the week ending December 19, which pushed total inventories to nearly 37K GWh. #natgas #ongt #pjm #power Image
Read 4 tweets
Thread on Turkey’s Energy Ambitions & Regional Dominance
1-18 President Erdoğan gave an energy-focused speech last Friday in a ceremony for the capacity expansion of the Silivri Underground Natural Gas Storage Facility, which reached 4.6 billion cubic meters (162.45 bcf).
2-18 The speech highlights several energy policy issues, provides some interesting data, and most importantly, highlights the two issues that we focused on in this week's and last week’s newsletters: Relations with Russia and the desire to be a gas hub.
3-18 Below are translated excerpts from the speech (from ):
- “Silivri has become the largest underground gas storage facility in Europe.”
#Turkey #Natgas #Russia #Europe
Read 18 tweets
Nov #CPI was the 2nd better-than-expected report in a row.

The last time that happened was, prepare yourself, in Oct 2018!

It didn't even happen during the lockdowns in 2020 making this report all the more significant.

Let's delve deeper.

A thread.

On an unadjusted basis headline #CPI was down -0.1% MoM, the lowest MoM reading since April 2020!

Back then the economy was on forced lockdown and this is only second to that lowest 2 readings (Mar-Apr 2020) in the recent history.

3M moving average of headline #CPI (MoM unadjusted) is 0.17% which is 2.1% annualized, well BELOW the #Fed's #inflation target.

I already explained this but for the ones that are reading this for the first time, yes, you read that right - 2.1% #CPI is way below the target

Read 16 tweets

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