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Tuomas Malinen Profile picture
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Mar 7 • 10 tweets • 5 min read
Many have asked me on preparation and my opinions about #gold , #stocks , #Cash and #banks .

We have presented these and preparation guidelines in the following reports, which will continue next week.

Our latest forecasts. 👇
@GnSEconomics
🧵1/10
gnseconomics.substack.com/p/deprcon-outl…
The fundamental thing to understand, concerning preparation, is how prices of different assets are likely to behave in the coming crisis.

In this report, we present historical patterns of key assets classes during crises.
2/
 gnseconomics.substack.com/p/the-preppers…
As a historical 'appendix' we also report the best performing stocks during and after the GFC and the Great Depression. (Free.)
3/
 gnseconomics.substack.com/p/the-best-per…
In this first actual guide for preparation for the approaching crisis, we present means for financial preparation for households and nations.

We'll publish similar guidelines for firms and investors next week.
4/
 gnseconomics.substack.com/p/preparation-…
In this entry, we explained the basic principles of banking crisis preparation and the 'counter-cyclicality' principle for households, businesses and investors.
5/
 gnseconomics.substack.com/p/how-to-prepa…
In the second entry of banking crisis preparation, we deal with what assets to hold during a banking crisis and which banks, in Europe, are likely to be safe.

Note that the data presented here somewhat overlaps with that of the 'Prepper's Bunker'.
6/
 gnseconomics.substack.com/p/how-to-prepa…
Here, we present the 'anatomy' of a banking crisis.
(Free.)
7/
 gnseconomics.substack.com/p/the-anatomy-…
However, this time around we also have to prepare for the possibility of a 'global financial lockdown'.
We will analyze it through more thoroughly and include it to our next preparation reports.
8/
 mtmalinen.substack.com/p/up-next-glob…
The fact that the onset of the crisis has been postponed, should NOT be wasted on thinking that everything will "be just fine", because with a very high likelihood it will not be.

Vigilance in all investment activities is highly recommended. ☝️
9/
 gnseconomics.substack.com/p/into-the-per…
Our six month old newsletter has over 1100 subscribers, which number grows steadily. Our customers range from savvy keepers of households to hedge fund managers and global bankers.

Join in.
gnseconomics.substack.com

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More from @mtmalinen

Tuomas Malinen Profile picture
Mar 1
During the past week, I and we conducted an in-depth analysis of the U.S. #economy . The results were not encouraging.

First, I discovered that the banking sector was more fragile than previously thought.
🧵1/8
mtmalinen.substack.com/p/the-us-econo…
It also seemed that the U.S. credit markets were in the grips of a (fallacious) complacency, shown on the proportionally milder reaction of the "junk" bonds on the current tightening cycle.

But, can the #Fed support the markets in the current situation? We're not so sure.
2/ Image
The good news was that the "zombie-corporation" problem seemed to be less severe than previously thought.

However, we also know that the ultra-easy monetary policies has created weak highly indebted firms.
3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
Tuomas Malinen Profile picture
Feb 26
I have to admit that March worries me, while I "called" it already in November.

This is because it can become a month where "everything" converges to form a 'perfect storm'. I shortly summarize them here.
🧵1/6
I first warned on the risks ("fracture lines") in global liquidity in November.

We and I have been analyzing them further and it looks that there's a risk of an outright collapse of global market #liquidity in March. 2/
mtmalinen.substack.com/p/an-update-on…
At the same time the effect of waning China stimulus is likely to become visible in Europe and the world economy. 3/
gnseconomics.substack.com/p/derpcon-outl…
Read 6 tweets
Tuomas Malinen Profile picture
Feb 21
The global business cycle is forecastable around 4-5mo ahead and the provision of liquidity into the financial markets is forecastable around 2-3mo ahead, currently.

The onset of economic crises is much more cumbersome and uncertain to forecasts.

A short 🧵on what's coming. 1/6
The flow of aggregate financing in China sputtered in October and fell of a 'cliff' in Nov/Dec. This implied that

1) This month will see first signs of a renewed decline in econ. indicators.
2) Decline will deepen in March and April.

Details. 👇
2/
Global liquidity has been driven by China especially during this year with the onset of QT:s by the #FederalReserve and the #ECB.

The slump in October was followed by a massive increase in November, which lifted the markets. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Tuomas Malinen Profile picture
Feb 18
Past week I promised a (long) thread on global #liquidity and so, here goes!

I have been analyzing the current state global liquidity since early November. Then I warned on possibility of an outright collapse of market liquidity.
🧵1/25
mtmalinen.substack.com/p/global-liqui…
Basically, I re-iterated our original warning from October 2018, when we had discovered that:

1. Global outside-US dollar denominated debt has risen to a record.
2. The role of non-bank institutions on providing funding has increased.
2/
3. The composition of international credit has shifted from bank loans to debt securities.

These straight-forwardly implied that:
"The increased role of non-bank institutions in providing credit means that an increasing proportion of international finance comes..."
3/
Read 25 tweets
Tuomas Malinen Profile picture
Feb 9
I'll do one more effort to explain, why the "recession is cancelled" argument is false. 🧵

It is based on ignorance on the forces that lifted the global economy from its slump in the fall.

Global recession is still very much 'on the cards'. 1/17
gnseconomics.substack.com/p/derpcon-outl…
Everything you need to know is summarized in this graph. It shows that Chinese business (debt) cycle leads European cycle by around 3-4mo and the global business cycle by around 4-5mo.

In tight turning points (crises), with synchronous response, the lag is shorter. 2/ Image
This relationship was revealed in 2015/2016.

In 2015 Chinese leaders tried to stabilize the economy by tightening the availability of credit especially to the manufacturing sector, which led to a slump in the Chinese housing market, which had already weakened in 2014. 3/
Read 17 tweets
Tuomas Malinen Profile picture
Dec 8, 2022
Seven charts to explain, why the U.S. is heading into a #recession (which is unlikely to be "mild"). 🧵

Let's start with the most problematic one: the yield curves. Many read these like the Bible, and they rarely have gotten it wrong. However, this time there's a problem.
1/14 Image
Our first-ever U.S. #recession call, in March 2019, predicting the beginning of an U.S. recession in early 2020, was based on the inversion of the yields of the Treasuries with 10-year and 3-month maturities.

But, they are being manipulated. 2/
gnseconomics.com/2019/03/27/rec…
This is depicted in the strange divergence of the 10y/3mo and 10y/2y spreads in early 2022 shown in the figure above. I explained this in detail in my @EpochOpinion piece in May.

Main point: purchases of Treasuries by the #Fed are twisting the curves. 3/
theepochtimes.com/recession-come…
Read 14 tweets

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