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Mar 20 • 3 tweets • 3 min read
The tempo of #Russian offensive operations across the theater has slowed in recent weeks, suggesting that the Russian spring offensive in #Donbas may be nearing culmination.
isw.pub/UkrWar031923
2/ Ongoing Russian offensives along the Svatove-Kreminna line, around #Bakhmut, & along the Avdiivka-#Donetsk City and #Vuhledar frontlines have failed to make more than incremental tactical gains in 2023. isw.pub/UkrWar031923
3/ Ukrainian military officials additionally continue to indicate that massive Russian losses in the #Vuhledar area in particular are severely degrading Russian offensive capacity in #Donetsk Oblast. isw.pub/UkrWar031923

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
Mar 21
#Xi’s refusal to explicitly align #China with #Russia in #Putin’s envisioned geopolitical conflict with the West is a notable departure from China’s declared “no limits partnership” with Russia preceding the start of the Russian invasion of #Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar032023
2/ #Xi’s rhetoric suggests that he is not inclined to fully give #Russia the economic and political support that Russia needs to reverse setbacks in #Ukraine.
3/ #Putin and #Xi offered somewhat similar visions for increased Chinese-Russian economic partnership, and it is likely that the two will sign bilateral trade and economic agreements during Xi’s visit, some of which will likely aim to facilitate schemes for sanctions evasion.
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 21
Chinese President #Xi Jinping met with Russian President Vladimir #Putin in #Moscow on March 20 and offered a more reserved vision for Russian-Chinese relations than what #Putin was likely seeking. 🧵(1/6) isw.pub/UkrWar032023
2/ #Xi and #Putin touted the strength of Chinese-Russian relations in their meeting on March 20, but offered differing interpretations of the scale of future relations in articles they published on March 19.
3/ #Putin published an article in Chinese state media arguing that #Russia & #China are building a partnership for the formation of a multipolar world order in the face of the collective West’s seeking of domination & the US policy of dual containment against China and Russia.
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 21
#Russian forces likely made additional gains in SW and northern #Bakhmut as well as northwest of Bakhmut between Bohdanivka and Khromove as of March 20. 1/5

isw.pub/UkrWar032023
The #Ukrainian General Staff reported on March 19 that #Russian troops attacked toward Berdychi (10km NW of #Avdiivka), which indicates that Russian forces likely advanced west of Krasnohorivka (9km north of Avdiivka) and captured Stepove (just west of Krasnohorivka). 2/5
#Russian forces are likely increasing the tempo of operations north of #Avdiivka in an effort to set conditions for the encirclement of the settlement and are reportedly employing a greater number of aviation units in the area to support these operations. 3/5
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 20
#Russian President Vladimir #Putin visited occupied #Mariupol on March 19, likely to project the image of invulnerability and to continue efforts to portray himself as an involved wartime leader. isw.pub/UkrWar031923
2/ #Putin also likely meant his visit to be a response to the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant for his involvement in war crimes connected to the deportation of #Ukrainian children, at least 1,000 of whom #Russian officials deported from #Mariupol alone.
3/ #Putin’s visit to #Mariupol likely also aimed to assuage a longstanding and pervasive fear in the nationalist space about a prospective Ukrainian counteroffensive in southern #Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar031923
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 20
#Ukrainian forces likely conducted a localized counterattack southwest of #Bakhmut amid growing #Russian discussion about a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Bakhmut area. isw.pub/UkrWar031923
2/ Geolocated footage published on March 19 indicates that #Ukrainian forces conducted a successful counterattack southwest of Ivanivske (6km west of #Bakhmut) and pushed Russian forces further away from the T0504 highway in the area.
3/ #Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty reported that #Russian forces conducted 25 attacks in the Bakhmut area on March 19, but Russian forces likely only secured marginal gains.
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 19
More on #Bakhmut:

The #Ukrainian General Staff specified that Ukrainian forces repelled #Russian assaults in the northern part of #Bakhmut, likely suggesting that Russian forces are concentrating offensive operations on the northern part of the city. isw.pub/UkrWar031823
2/ #Russian milbloggers claimed that #Wagner Group fighters captured unspecified industrial facilities in the AZOM complex in northern #Bakhmut and have cleared most of the complex of #Ukrainian forces.
3/ ISW has not observed any visual confirmation that Russian forces have advanced into the territory of the AZOM complex.
Read 7 tweets

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