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Andrew A. Michta

@andrewmichta

Mar 23

🧵My take as I watch the Sino-Russian summit: There is growing convergence between China and Russia. It is intrinsic, driven by shared interests/opposition to the West; not a function of our actions. #Russia wants to revise the post-1991 order; #China wants to replace it. 1/5

After Xi's success with Saudi Arabia, he will try to position China as a peacemaker in #Ukraine, with an eye to securing a Russian victory there. Here much will depend on the outcome of the upcoming Ukrainian offensive. Both Beijing and Moscow believe time is on their side. 2/5

In this context, a key decision point for #Europe will be how it deals with #China going forward-not just because this will impact on its relations with the US, but also because Russia is now indirectly a part of this equation. Europe needs a consensus on the Russian threat. 3/5

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Andrew A. Michta

@andrewmichta

Mar 16

🧵As I watch fault lines in #Europe deepen (notwithstanding all the rhetoric of its unity in opposition to RUS invasion of #Ukraine), here are a few thoughts. The distribution of economic power in the #EU that unequivocally favors Germany needs thoughtful political rebalancing.1/

For #Europe to really come together the voices of those members along the flank need to become much more important to the #EU’s future trajectory than they were in the last 20 yrs. The flank countries were right on #Russia, while #Germany and #France were not. Recognize that. 2/

If #Europe is to heal this realization has to be the starting point. #EU can never again allow itself to be subjected to the kind of brass-tack geopolitics that was Nord Stream. No matter how economically powerful the state is that makes this play. No matter the arms-twisting. 3/

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Andrew A. Michta

@andrewmichta

Mar 13

🧵I keep getting emails from various people to tell me that 1. #Ukraine can’t win or 2. that the war in UKR is a distraction from the real threat posed by #China. Then I get those about how we are depleting our stocks and won’t have enough should a crisis erupt over #Taiwan 1/5

To the first point: Neither I nor the naysayers know what the final outcome in #Ukraine will be. Wars are inherently unpredictable.They are not just about mass, population, or resources. History is replete with wars where a smaller but better motivated and led force prevailed 2/5

To the second point: We are in a global contest between democracies and dictatorships. #Russia and #China are aligned against us not because we pushed them together but because they share the same interest: to dismantle the current order. These theaters are interconnected. 3/5

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Andrew A. Michta

@andrewmichta

Mar 9

🧵Recently a parliamentarian from #Ukraine said to me: "You give us enough to defend ourselves, but not enough to win." Too true. No war can last forever, no nation has infinite resources or stamina. In the end one side breaks. 1/

Wars are decided not just by resources, planning or morale. There is a temporal factor when all elements come together. We are at such a moment in this war when #Ukraine - if given MBTs, long-range fires, aircraft and munitions can defeat the Russian forces on its territory. 2/

I have to ask myself why so many governments in the West continue to delay, debate, hesitate and then send only a few tanks, howitzers or limited shipments of ammunition that will arrive at some later date? Why with our stocks depleted we are not moving to wartime production? 3/

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Andrew A. Michta

@andrewmichta

Mar 1

🧵As I watch delays in weapons and munitions deliveries to #Ukraine amidst incessant talk about “redlines” and “risk of escalation, let me offer a few thoughts. First,why are we second-guessing ourself as to what Russian reaction might be when #Europe’s security is at stake? 1/

The reality is that we are self-imposing those redlines. We keep communicating our anxiety at every turn, while we should actually keep Russia guessing as to what we will do when it comes to both policy and weapons deliveries to #Ukraine. In effect, we are “self-deterring.” 2/

On my 2nd point, i.e., the risk of escalation let’s remember that in the final analysis we have limited capacity to control what Putin does next. I say this not to dismiss the threat but to focus on what we need to do to help #Ukraine win because it is fighting for us as well.3/

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Andrew A. Michta

@andrewmichta

Feb 27

🧵Remember how, because of “globalization,” communist China was to become more open, more democratic, more like us-to quote a former U.S. official: “a responsible stakeholder in the international system”? This was nonsense, showing how little we understood culture and history.1/

Here is a small example of how off-base we were: EY China staff is being encouraged to wear Communist party badges on.ft.com/3Y4843K Rather than democratizing, the PRC has reasserted its commitment to the very ideology that, in CCP’s view, made China’s rise possible. 2/

Had we paused for a minute in 1991 and thought of what happens each time a country rapidly modernizes, three things hold: 1. The country becomes more geostrategically assertive and expansionist; 2. The leadership and political class become more self-confident; and finally, 3/

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