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@TheStudyofWar
Mar 26 • 3 tweets • 3 min read • Twitter logo Read on Twitter
#Putin instead remains focused on achieving his initial war aims through protracted conflict in which he wins either by imposing his will on #Ukraine by force or by breaking #Ukraine’s will following the West’s abandonment of #Kyiv.

isw.pub/UkrWar032623
Multiple successful #Ukrainian counter-offensives are almost certainly necessary but not sufficient to either persuade #Putin to negotiate on acceptable terms. . . 2/3
. . . or to create military conditions on the ground favorable enough to #Ukraine and the West that continued or renewed #Russian attacks pose acceptable threats to Ukraine or #NATO. 3/3

isw.pub/UkrWar032623

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
Mar 28
Southern #Ukraine update:

#Russia appears to be increasingly deploying elements of conventional formations in a piecemeal fashion along the entire frontline, including in southern Ukraine.

isw.pub/UkrWar032723 ImageImage
#Russian sources claimed on Mar. 27 that the 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade is operating in the #Zaporizhia direction... [B]ut a Russian milblogger claimed on Mar. 21 that unspecified elements of the 136th are instead operating in the #Avdiivka direction. 2/
The apparent simultaneous commitment of elements of the 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade to two disparate areas of the frontline is notably not a doctrinally sound pattern of deployment. 3/
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 28
NEW: Rumors about the dismissal of #Russian Eastern Group of Forces Commander Colonel General Rustam #Muradov generated a muted and cynical response in the Russian information space. #Ukraine

Our latest: isw.pub/UkrWar032723 ImageImageImageImage
One prominent milblogger claimed that military authorities are also considering dismissing Western Military District Commander Colonel General Yevgeny #Nikiforov, whose forces operate along the #Kupyansk-#Svatove-#Kreminna line in eastern #Ukraine. 2/
ISW cannot confirm the rumors of either #Muradov’s or #Nikiforov’s dismissals, but it is noteworthy that #Russian milbloggers are discussing potential dismissals of commanders associated with areas of operation in which . . . 3/
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 27
March 26 Assessment Highlight:

The outcomes of wars often are, in fact, determined on the battlefield with negotiations that merely ratify military realities. Putin likely has one such example vividly in his mind—World War II in Europe. 1/

isw.pub/UkrWar032623 Image
WWII ended only when Allied forces had completely defeated the German military and Soviet troops stood in the wreckage of Berlin. Japan surrendered a few months later after the US had demonstrated what appeared to be the ability to destroy the country completely. 2/
Going further back in history the peaces that ended the three Wars of German Unification, the American Civil War, and the Napoleonic Wars also merely ratified realities created by decisive military victories. Even the most recently ended war adhered to this pattern. 3/
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 27
The continuing of #Russian offensive operations around #Bakhmut and #Avdiivka, as well as along the #Luhansk and western #Donetsk front lines, is a further indicator that #Putin remains committed to victory in a protracted war.

isw.pub/UkrWar032623
It is not a given, nevertheless, that #Putin will continue fighting regardless of cost until the day he dies.

Putin is nevertheless putting no terms for negotiation on the table now other than #Russia’s total success. 2/
The choices before #Ukraine and its Western backers at this time are thus relatively straightforward:

(1) Ukraine can unilaterally cease fighting even as #Russian attacks by ground and air continue, which would lead to disastrous defeat. 3/
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 26
#Russian Mobilization & Force Generation Update:

#Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin accused Russian authorities on March 25 of rewriting the history of the war in #Ukraine to cut out Wagner.

isw.pub/UkrWar032523
#Prigozhin claimed that unspecified #Russian authorities forced state-controlled media outlet RT—which has consistently promoted #Wagner operations in #Ukraine—to cut the first half of a film on the role of Russian convicts in the war because it centered on the Wagner Group. 2/
#Prigozhin claimed that #Russian authorities want to convince the populace that “pomaded generals” in fancy offices really won the war. 3/
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Mar 26
#Ukrainian and Western officials offered various views of the state of the #Russian offensive in #Bakhmut on March 25, but all are consistent with the assessment that the Russian effort around Bakhmut is likely culminating.

isw.pub/UkrWar032523
#Russian forces may continue to attack #Bakhmut frequently and aggressively even if the offensive has culminated with little to no success, as ISW has previously assessed, as culmination does not mean the absence of fighting. 2/
#Russian attacks in and around #Bakhmut may resume at high levels without generating significant new gains if conventional Russian forces do, in fact, enter the fray. 3/
Read 4 tweets

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