Nooresh Merani Profile picture
Apr 20, 2023 12 tweets 21 min read Read on X
New iOS in #Markets

Indian #Options Speculators.

There has been a huge surge in #Retail and #Proprietary trading in #Options and more specifically in #Index Options.

The Data & Charts below are just #Crazy and getting crazier.
1) #Retail Participation went through the roof in 2021

Some Moderation now in 2022-2023

#Retail in Cash Market From 3 cr in Jan 20 to 11.7 cr in 2021.
#Retail at 3.2 cr participants March 23.

3x jump in all participation from Jan 20 !! Image
2) Everyone is an #Option Trader

#FIIs are just 9.5% of #IndexOptions Premium Turnover !!! From 21% in Fy20.

45% is #Domestic Prop ( #Broker trading on its own behalf )

35% is #Retail.
Retail + pro = 80%
#Retail is almost 4x of #FIIs.

Btw #FIIs own 20% of India. Image
3) #Pro are propping up the #Trading Volumes in #EquityDerivatives .

On a notional turnover, 53% of the #Volumes is #PRO accounts.

#Brokers are now #Traders or #Traders have turned #Brokers ?

#FIIS are just 7.4%

#Retail at 27% Image
4) The #Indian #Options #Speculator is an Indexer

For all the talk about #IndexFunds & #ETFs the data suggests #Retail is all in on #Index Futures instead.

31.7% of #Index Futures is #Retail and 34% is #PRO

#FIIs at 11.8% Image
5) #Retail is shifting from #Futures to #Options

#StockFutures sees a major cut in #Retail participation.

From 31% of Volumes in 2018 to just 15.6% in 2023.

#FIIs continue to be at 23-25%

#DIIs at 8.5% thanks to the #ArbitrageFunds and #TaxBenefit. Image
6) #StockOptions is all about the #PRO and #Retail

56% of Volumes by #PRO and 31% by #Retail.

#FIIs are just 3.1 % .

Repeating

#FIIs are just 3.1% of Stock Options ( Premium Turnover ) Image
7) The #Machines are fighting it out.

51.5% of #Volumes of Equity Derivatives and 33% of #CashMarket is via Co-Location.

17% of trades via a Mobile in cash Market. It peaked at 25% in 2021 !! ImageImage
8) #CapitalMarket still has #FIIs #DIIs and #Retail slugging it out.

#PRO is 27%

#Retail is 36.5% from a peak of 45% in FY21.

#FIIs at 15% Image
Couple of odd ones
#SURAT just beat the Rest of India in terms of Cash turnover of #Individuals in March 23 with 6.3% of Volumes !!! .

Mumbai continues to be the largest.

#EquityMarket AUM crosses #DebtMarket in #MutualFunds ImageImage
10) #Retail participation is increasing in a big way. More in #OptionSelling

Mind you #Leverage is the toughest way to make money and the easiest to Lose it All.

I just hope a lot of #Retail does not have to learn this lesson in a tough way with #Volatility going berserk.
A lot of things are not in your Control.

Outages can be everywhere.
#Broker
#Exchange
#Bank
#War a lot can create volatility.

Remember a 15 min Lower circuit in 2012 due to a Freak order by a Broker.

Control your Size and Leverage. Be conservative.

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More from @nooreshtech

Nov 13
Nifty & RSI Positive Divergence

Nifty – Oversold and Triple Divergence

Like I have said in my earlier posts that RSI is a good indicator for bottoming out analysis on Nifty50.

Now is the time with RSI being oversold it gets into practice for us.

Oversold and a possible Triple Divergence in making.

In majority of the instances a RSI divergence has led to a Strong Bounce.

A cluster of supports closer to 23300-23600.

Recent lows can be broken tomorrow and ideally one would expect a good bounce from the support band.

The trade is to look for longs in the band of 23300-23600 or as close to it or stock specific.

A bottoming out can take a few sessions as per previous instances. A stoploss of 2% from entry closer to 23000.

A bounce to the tune of 30-50% of the downmove is the initial target. That would come to 24500-25000.Image
The past instances

The 2021-2023 – RSI divergence bounces

Nifty from top to bottom corrected 18% but there were multiple bounces and sideways range.

In the same period many stocks/sectors did really well.

For example the June 2022 bounce was led by Banks.Image
The RSI Divergences in 2015-2016

Although the trend was down there were many bounces.

Textiles/Chemicals and many sectors continued to do well.Image
Read 4 tweets
Sep 28
Nifty50 RSI at 80. Sell Everything and Run Away

Did you all get this Forward/Post of how #Nifty of how 80 RSI was followed by a Correction !!

A Thread.
Image
Image
A) March 1992.

Nifty50 index started in 1996 with a 1-2 year backdated data. NSE started operations in 1994.

So I have no clue where the 1992 data came from. Sensex monthly RSI was 92 in 1992 in 1985. So that also does not match
B) Dec 2003.

My data shows 78.5. But fits the Curve and Narrative.

The next 4 months are sideways. May 2004 elections led to the 30% correction.

So now we start with the actual 80 + RSI instances.
Read 11 tweets
Sep 23
#SEBI - Profit Loss Analysis of #Individuals in #Derivatives

Total Traders = 1.13 cr

93% of #individuals made losses.

Total Loss = 1.8 lakh crores.

Transaction Cost = 50k cr

Only 1% of Traders managed to earn more than 1 lakh!!

A THREAD
1) #Futures Profit But #Options Losses

FY 24 all Individuals

Individuals made losses in Options to the tune of ~ ₹55,000 crore in FY24, they made profits to the tune of about ~ ₹13,400 crore in Futures.
2) But Everyone wants to trade only #Options

FY24

94.2% traded only Options
5.1% traded both Futures as well as Options.
0.7% of the F&O traders traded only Futures.
Read 10 tweets
Aug 6
The Rotational Bull Market !!

This Bull Market has been Unique in terms of No Single Theme being the Leader for a long period.

Read PDF
rb.gy/mo19dw
If we go back in History.

> 1992 was about Cements and other cos driven by Harshad Mehta.

> 2000 was about IT & Telecom – K10 stocks of Ketan Parekh

> 2008 was about Real Estate, Infra etc.
Bear Markets after that saw 60% drawdowns.

Post this period  we have seen more and more Rotational Bull Markets in Sectors/Themes but no Central Leadership.
Read 17 tweets
Jul 10
#Snippets

A few interesting snippets from different notes.

1) DIIs narrowing the gap with FIIs.

Can we see DIIs>FIIs in coming years ? Image
2) #India narrowing the gap with China in MSCI weightage Image
3) Last 5 years Sensex Growth= Earnings Growth

Valuations Expensive or Justified? Image
Read 10 tweets
Dec 31, 2023
Setting the Stage: World Indices Setup for 2024

AEX - NetherlandsImage
ASX All - AustraliaImage
ASX 200 - AustraliaImage
Read 23 tweets

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