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ISW Profile picture
@TheStudyofWar
May 5 • 5 tweets • 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
NEW: The Military Service Law reform that came into effect on May 1 may enable faster #Chinese mobilization during the event of a conflict.

Read ISW's China–Taiwan Weekly Update: isw.pub/CN-TW050523

Key Takeaways: 🧵👇 Image
Li Ganjie replaced Chen Xi as Director of the Central Organization Department on April 26, possibly to bolster the implementation of #Xi’s aim to have a technologically self-reliant #China. 1/4
#Taiwan People’s Party Chairman Ko Wen-je's reluctance to participate in a KMT-led “opposition alliance” may bolster the Democratic Progressive Party’s standing in the upcoming presidential election. 2/4
Potential KMT presidential nominee Hou Yu-ih's rhetoric on US-Taiwan relations and national security furthers the popular domestic discussion about the role of the #USA in #Taiwan’s national security. 3/4
Democratic Progressive Party legislators are considering stronger punishments for espionage that could increase the cost of #Chinese Communist Party led espionage attempts in #Taiwan. 4/4

isw.pub/CN-TW050523 Image

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
May 6
Russian forces made additional gains within #Bakhmut as of May 5.

Geolocated footage published on May 5 shows that Russian forces have advanced in northwestern Bakhmut towards #Khromove (directly west of Bakhmut). isw.pub/UkrWar050523 Image
2/ Additional geolocated imagery posted on May 4 shows a destroyed Ukrainian bridge over the Siverskyi Donets Donbas Canal west of #Bakhmut near Chasiv Yar.
3/ Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces blew up the bridge, but the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces struck an unspecified bridge near Chasiv Yar.
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 6
Russian occupation authorities announced the forced removal of 70,000 civilians in occupied #Zaporizhia Oblast to areas deeper in the Russian-occupied rear under the guise of evacuations. isw.pub/UkrWar050523 Image
2/ Zaporizhia Oblast occupation officials said on May 5 that RU authorities will conduct a partial evacuation of 70K UKR civilians from 18 settlements along the southern bank of the Kakhovka Reservoir and along Russian ground lines of communications ~20-40 km from the front line.
3/ The officials claimed that authorities have already begun evacuating civilians from the Polohy Raion to Berdyansk.
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 6
It is not immediately clear whether #Prigozhin actually intends to withdraw #Wagner forces from #Bakhmut on May 10 or whether he made the announcement in a last-ditch attempt to secure the support of the Russian MoD. isw.pub/UkrWar050523
2/ If #Wagner does withdraw, then it will likely need Russian MoD equipment to protect and facilitate the retrograde. The Russian military lacks the reserves needed to man positions Wagner might abandon in #Bakhmut, moreover.
3/ The massive losses suffered by Wagner in #Bakhmut for the sake of tactical gains + #Russia's shift towards a more cautious posture preparing for defensive operations appears to be offering Ukrainian forces opportunities for fruitful counterattacks in various areas of the front
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 6
#Wagner’s ongoing persistence within #Bakhmut is incompatible with the overall slow-down in the pace of RU offensive operations elsewhere in #Ukraine as conventional RU forces appear to be largely shifting focus to prepare to receive a much-anticipated UKR counteroffensive. (1/5)
2/ Aside from very limited and localized attacks in the #Kreminna area and near #Donetsk City, Russian forces have largely ceased offensive operations throughout the theater, likely signifying a transition to the defensive.
3/ It would be an operationally sound decision for the Russian MoD to begin withholding and stockpiling ammunition and supplies in order to prepare for any Ukrainian counteroffensive actions, and #Prigozhin’s desperate statements indicate that the Russian MoD is likely doing so.
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 5
NEW: The Russian Ministry of Defense appears to have deprioritized the #Bakhmut offensive in favor of preparing to defend against an anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive, putting #WagnerGroup & its financier #Prigozhin in a potentially difficult position isw.pub/UkrWar050523 ImageImageImageImage
2/ #Prigozhin released a series of videos on May 4 and 5 announcing that #Wagner will withdraw from #Bakhmut on May 10 unless Wagner receives the necessary supplies...
3/ ...and launched particularly acerbic and emotional attacks against Chief of the Russian General Staff Army General Valery #Gerasimov, Russian Minister of Defense Sergei #Shoigu, and the Russian MoD establishment writ large.
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 5
ISW appreciates every reader and is proud that its products have proven helpful in understanding the war in #Ukraine for over 430 days. The points below can help audiences understand the work ISW produces and engage with ISW's methodology.

Full statement: isw.pub/Methodology Image
1. ISW applies rigorous intelligence tradecraft that reflects best practices drawn from the US intelligence community.

ISW uses technical language from the military and intelligence community in its products to maintain the rigor of its tradecraft and communicate with precision.
2. ISW’s extensive, daily collection and analysis provides a highly tested baseline of existing patterns that enables its analysts to make fast judgments on a given piece of data because they are informed by months of prior study.
Read 17 tweets

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