ISW Profile picture
May 11 6 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
ISW & @criticalthreats are tracking the latest developments in #Pakistan, where hostility between former Prime Minister Imran #Khan's Tehrik-e-Insaf Party (PTI) and the Pakistani military had led PTI protesters to target military and police infrastructure across the country. 🧵⬇️
2/ Demonstrators set fire to multiple police stations in #Islamabad and exchanged small arms fire with #Pakistani security forces outside the Frontier Corps’ headquarters in #Peshawar on May 10.
3/ The #Pakistani government may choose to expand its crackdown against the PTI in response to attacks on the military, which could exacerbate the protests and open new security gaps that Salafi-jihadi groups could exploit.
4/ Indeed, the #Pakistani prime minister called PTI protesters “terrorists” on May 10, suggesting the Pakistani government is preparing to crack down on unrest further.
5/ #Pakistan’s military capacity is already limited, and the government announced military expenditure cuts on April 26. The deployments could further delay a nationwide counter–Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan campaign which Pakistan’s chief of army staff announced on April 7.
6/ Read more on the unfolding events in #Pakistan in today's Salafi-Jihadi Movement Update Special Edition from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar:…

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More from @TheStudyofWar

May 12
More from last night's #Ukraine update:

1. #Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov contradicted the pre-war Kremlin justifications for the war by asserting that the Russian “special military operation” began as “a conflict between #Russia and Ukraine.”
2. Two #Kremlin sources told Russian opposition outlet Meduza that the Kremlin saw #Prigozhin’s attempts to blackmail the Russian MoD on May 5 as a “serious threat” and that Prigozhin is not acting in the Kremlin’s interests.
3. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) denied official Ukrainian and US reports that a Patriot missile defense system shot down a #Kinzhal missile on the night of May 4.
Read 4 tweets
May 12
#Bakhmut Update

Ukrainian forces continued to conduct successful but localized counterattacks around #Bakhmut on May 11, likely constraining Russian offensive efforts in the city. Image
2/ Geolocated footage shows that Ukrainian forces pushed Russian forces from a section of the T0504 #Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar highway in southwestern Bakhmut.
3/ Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced northwest of #Bakhmut near Bohdanivka (6km northwest of Bakhmut) and Khromove (immediately west of Bakhmut) after Russian forces retreated from positions north of Khromove.
Read 6 tweets
May 12
The deployment of low-quality #Russian forces on the flanks around #Bakhmut suggests that the Russian Ministry of Defense has largely abandoned the aim of encircling a significant number of #Ukrainian forces there. 🧵(1/8)
2/ The Russian MoD likely began a broader deprioritization of the #Bakhmut effort by January 2023 when the MoD cut off #WagnerGroup penal recruitment efforts...
3/ ... which likely prompted #Prigozhin to ramp up the Soledar-Bakhmut effort in January and publicly complain about the lack of MoD support for his efforts starting in February 2023.
Read 8 tweets
May 12
NEW: Ukrainian forces likely broke through some Russian lines in localized counterattacks near #Bakhmut, prompting responses from #Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).

Latest on #Ukraine w/ @criticalthreats: ImageImageImageImage
2/ Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Russian forces retreated up to two kilometers behind Russian lines in unspecified sectors of the #Bakhmut front.
3/ Syrskyi’s confirmation of Ukrainian gains prompted a response from #Prigozhin, who claimed that Ukrainian forces have started the counteroffensive and recaptured three kilometers of ground in and around #Bakhmut.
Read 5 tweets
May 11
Pervasive issues with #Russian combat capability, exacerbated by continued attritional assaults in the #Bakhmut area, are likely considerably constraining the ability of Russian forces in this area to defend against localized #Ukrainian counterattacks. 1/
The Russian military command’s apparent commitment of elements of the 72nd Brigade—a formation that has suffered 2 successive defeats—to the #Bakhmut axis alongside already attrited Wagner forces likely offer Ukrainian forces opportunities to exploit w/ limited counterattacks. 2/
The 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade itself is emblematic of many of the endemic force generation issues constantly faced by the #Russian military.  3/
Read 5 tweets
May 10
#Donetsk City axis:

Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the #Avdiivka-Donetsk frontline on May 9.

Ukrainian forces likely made additional marginal gains in a recent counterattack southwest of Avdiivka. Image
2/ Geolocated footage published on May 8 indicates that Ukrainian forces likely made further marginal advances north of Vodyane (7km southwest of Avdiivka) in an area where ISW assesses Ukrainian forces conducted a limited counterattack as of April 30.
3/ Ukrainian forces likely conducted a successful limited counterattack in western #Donetsk Oblast.

Geolocated footage published on May 9 indicates that Ukrainian forces conducted a counterattack near Novodonetsk (50km SW of Donetsk City) and made marginal advances in the area.
Read 4 tweets

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