Thread by @Mathieu_Droin

Tomorrow, Sweden hosts the second EU – Indo-Pacific forum, gathering ministers and high-level representatives from around 60 countries.
A great display of the EU’s convening power, but what is the agenda and potential outcomes of such a broad format? A 🧵 1/13
#EUIndoPacific

This forum was instigated by 🇫🇷 during its presidency of the EU Council in Feb 22, in line with France’s efforts (along with others, 🇳🇱🇩🇪) to raise the EU’s profile in a region that is vital to its interests (40% of EU imports) and that faces many common challenges.

The first forum, in Paris, was hailed as a success. But from the onset, there have been debates on the format (mainly regarding 🇺🇸&🇨🇳) and the substance (what are the conducive topics for #EU-#IndoPacific cooperation). 3/13

On the format, a geographical criteria has been favored, raising the question of 🇨🇳’s participation, mindful that the Indo-Pacific construct has emerged also as a frame to tackle the challenges posed by 🇨🇳. 🇫🇷 decided not to invite 🇨🇳, so decided @sweden2023eu & the @eu_eeas too.

The other thorny question is the association of major EU partners, starting with 🇺🇸🇬🇧. When the 1st Forum convened, #AUKUS emotions were still pretty vivid. The forum offered a first opportunity to reconnect with 🇦🇺, but the 🇫🇷 presidency would not consider inviting the US & UK.

But even leaving AUKUS aside, the degree of closeness of this forum with – mainly – the US is and will remain a fundamental question, if the EU is to chart its own path in the Indo-Pacific. For this forum, 🇪🇺 & 🇸🇪 decided to invite 🇺🇸🇬🇧 & 🇨🇦. It does not prejudge future formats.

Another challenge for the 🇸🇪 Presidency was to secure high level presence to keep a momentum. Challenge has been met, with high profile figures confirming their attendance, incl. 🇮🇳 EAM @DrSJaishankar, 🇯🇵 FM Hayashi, 🇮🇩 @Menlu_RI or 🇸🇬 @VivianBala, among around 40 Ministers. 7/13

These participations are not only important for Sweden’s prestige, they are first and foremost indicative of the level of interest from Indo-Pacific countries in increased cooperation with the #EuropeanUnion. 8/13

On the substance now, what the EU and IP countries truly expect from one another remains rather unclear. This is also one aspect that this forum aims at clarifying. For now, the agenda revolves around 3 themes: sustainable and inclusive prosperity, green transition and security.

These themes are consistent with the EU Indo-Pacific strategy adopted in September 2021. Yet their prioritization reinforces the idea that the EU’s common approach to the Indo-Pacific favors “soft issues”, rather than more strategic, “hard issues” 10/13

In this context, the expected deliverables are mainly to build synergies and to agree on new cooperations in the three identified themes. Participants will also surely call for an accelerated implementation of the EU #GlobalGateway initiative. 11/13

On the security front, progresses are expected on EU initiatives such as the Critical Maritime Routes @CrimarioII programme, the concept of Coordinated Maritime Presence in the Northwestern Indian Ocean, or the Enhancing Security Cooperation in and with Asia @ESIWA_EU 12/13

The EU and IP countries are still learning to work together, hence the cooperation agenda remains timid. But this reunion holds important symbolic value, stressing that the war in 🇺🇦 has not taken away EU's attention from the IndoPacific and that challenges are intertwined. END