#Iranian weapon shipments into #Syria could trigger a new escalation cycle with #Israel that risks entangling US and Coalition forces. 2/9
Ultra-hardline political factions are mounting a political campaign against pragmatic hardline Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, likely to restrain him from pursuing major political reforms. 3/9
The #Iranian regime is portraying clerics as allies of the Iranian people likely to prevent further acts of violence against them. 4/9
Unspecified individuals attacked clerics on five separate occasions in April and May 2023, marking a five-fold increase in attacks against religious figures compared to the first three months of 2023. 5/9
The #Iran Update aims to inform national security policy by providing timely, relevant, and independent open-source analysis of developments pertaining to Iran and its Axis of Resistance. 6/9
This update covers political, military, and economic events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the #Iranian regime. 7/9
It also provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. 8/9
The Critical Threats Project (CTP/@criticalthreats) at the American Enterprise Institute with support from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW/@TheStudyofWar) provides these updates Monday through Friday. 9/9
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#Russian sources claimed that Russian forces captured Masyutivka, Kharkiv Oblast (13km northeast of Kupyansk) and established a bridgehead on the west (right) bank of the Oskil River, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these claims. 2/5
#Russian forces continued ground assaults in Bakhmut and its outskirts on May 15, while Ukrainian forces are continuing defensive operations in the Bakhmut direction. 3/5
Russian forces conducted ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Kupyansk-Svatove line.
Russian forces have not made additional confirmed gains in or around Bakhmut and continued limited offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
NEW | Ukrainian forces have made gains northwest of Bakhmut in localized counterattacks as of May 12. Read the full update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar here:
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) attempted to distract from and assuage information space paranoia over a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive on the Kharkiv-Luhansk front.
Russian forces continued ground attacks in and around Bakhmut against the backdrop of localized Ukrainian counterattacks. Geolocated footage posted on May 12 shows that Russian forces have advanced between Marshal Tolbukhin and Iryna Levchenko streets in northwestern Bakhmut.
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line on May 5. 2/6
#Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on May 5. #Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed or claimed ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast on May 5. 3/6
NEW | Attacks on #Iranian clerics increased during the past month, which may reflect broader public antipathy to the regime's sociocultural and economic policies. Today's update from CTP & @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-… 1/5
Iranian leadership is signaling greater cohesion among #Palestinian resistance factions, likely to support their integration into the Axis of Resistance. 2/5
#Iraq-i Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani may replace Popular Mobilization Authority Chairman Faleh al Fayyadh according to Iranian-backed Telegram channel Sabreen. 3/5