ISW Profile picture
May 17 7 tweets 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The reported Russian reinforcements to the #Bakhmut area suggest that #Russia continues to concentrate offensive capabilities there despite an assessed wider effort to reprioritize operations to prepare for potential Ukrainian counteroffensives. 🧵(1/7) isw.pub/UkrWar051623
2/ Russian forces have also recently transferred elements of the 6th Guards Motorized Rifle Division (20th Guards Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) to an unspecified area north of #Bakhmut, likely from positions along the Svatove-Kupyansk line.
3/ The movement of Russian forces from other sectors of the front to the #Bakhmut area is likely a response to persisting Russian concerns about the stability of frontlines in the area amid #WagnerGroup’s continued degradation in the offensive to capture #Bakhmut.
4/ These concerns were likely more pronounced in recent days that saw limited Ukrainian gains around #Bakhmut and may have prompted further Russian concentration on the tactical offensive effort in the area. isw.pub/UkrWar051623
5/ The reinforcements are also likely meant to enhance #Wagner’s ability to capture the remainder of #Bakhmut rapidly and present a Russian tactical victory before possible setbacks during a Ukrainian #counteroffensive operation.
6/ ISW assesses that the Russian military command likely decided to reprioritize operations and sustainment efforts in recent weeks to prepare for potential Ukrainian #counteroffensive operations... isw.pub/UkrWar051623
7/ ...although the continued concentration on #Bakhmut may suggest that immediate tactical concerns could be undermining the larger effort. isw.pub/UkrWar051623

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More from @TheStudyofWar

May 18
Geolocated footage posted on May 17 shows that #Wagner Group forces made incremental advances in southwestern #Bakhmut. (1/4) isw.pub/UkrWar051723 Image
2/ A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces conducted a failed ground attack west of #Bakhmut near Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut) but advanced northwest of Bakhmut near the Bakhmut-Khromove highway, Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest), and Mynkivka (13km northwest).
3/ Another milblogger claimed that Wagner forces completed the capture of a Ukrainian fortified area in western #Bakhmut and began pressuring Ukrainian forces in an adjacent contested area.
Read 4 tweets
May 18
The #Kremlin reportedly accused three hypersonic missile scientists of treason. (1/4) isw.pub/UkrWar051723
2/ Employees of the Institute of Theoretical and Applied Mathematics of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science published an open letter on May 15 in defense of three of their scientists— Anatoly Maslov, Alexander Shiplyuk, and Valery Zvegintsev —
3/ ...whom Russian authorities reportedly arrested in the past year under suspicion of committing “high treason.”

The letter also noted that these arrests deter the younger generation from pursuing careers in science.
Read 4 tweets
May 18
NEW: #Russian and #Ukrainian officials acknowledged continued limited Ukrainian counterattacks near #Bakhmut on May 17.

Our latest: isw.pub/UkrWar051723 ImageImageImageImage
2/ Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that Ukrainian forces are advancing in unspecified areas on #Bakhmut’s flanks.
3/ Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Ukrainian forces advanced up to 500 meters in the #Bakhmut direction in the past day and continue to attack Russian flanks.
Read 6 tweets
May 17
Southern #Ukraine:

Russian forces are continuing to panic about maintaining their positions in the east (left) bank #Kherson Oblast ahead of an anticipated Ukrainian #counteroffensive.

Russian & Ukrainian sources reported explosions in #Tokmak on May 16. isw.pub/UkrWar051623 ImageImage
2/ The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) published a video on May 15 claiming that Russian airborne (VDV) artillery units are shelling Ukrainian infantry units in forested areas on the eastern bank of the #Dnipro River in #Kherson Oblast.
3/ A #Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that there are ”witch hunts” among Russian troops in #Kherson Oblast because many accuse each other of exposing Russian positions to Ukrainian forces by cooperating with Russian volunteers or reporting about the situation on the ground.
Read 6 tweets
May 17
Russian forces have made marginal gains within #Bakhmut as of May 16.

Geolocated footage published on May 15 indicates that Russian forces likely made marginal gains in southwestern Bakhmut along the road that leads to Khromove (just west of Bakhmut). isw.pub/UkrWar051623 Image
2/ #WagnerGroup financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin claimed on May 15 that Wagner fighters advanced 220m in #Bakhmut and that Ukrainian forces currently control 1.59 square kilometers of the city.
3/ Russian sources claimed on May 15 and 16 that #Wagner fighters have cleared several remaining contested areas in western #Bakhmut and control at least half of these areas.
Read 6 tweets
May 17
Russian forces continued limited assaults along the Svatove-Kreminna line on May 16 and are reportedly deploying additional manpower and equipment from #Belarus to reinforce their positions in #Luhansk Oblast. isw.pub/UkrWar051623 Image
2/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted offensive operations in the vicinity of Masyutivka (about 13km northeast of Kupyansk) and Novoselivske (about 16km northwest of Svatove).
3/ Russian milbloggers continued to claim that unspecified elements of the 6th Combined Arms Army (Western Military District) captured Masyutivka and pushed Ukrainian forces across the western bank of the Oskil River on May 15.
Read 4 tweets

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