Thread by @TheStudyofWar

The reported Russian reinforcements to the #Bakhmut area suggest that #Russia continues to concentrate offensive capabilities there despite an assessed wider effort to reprioritize operations to prepare for potential Ukrainian counteroffensives. 🧵(1/7) isw.pub/UkrWar051623

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1658611654689521666

2/ Russian forces have also recently transferred elements of the 6th Guards Motorized Rifle Division (20th Guards Combined Arms Army, Western Military District) to an unspecified area north of #Bakhmut, likely from positions along the Svatove-Kupyansk line.

3/ The movement of Russian forces from other sectors of the front to the #Bakhmut area is likely a response to persisting Russian concerns about the stability of frontlines in the area amid #WagnerGroup’s continued degradation in the offensive to capture #Bakhmut.

4/ These concerns were likely more pronounced in recent days that saw limited Ukrainian gains around #Bakhmut and may have prompted further Russian concentration on the tactical offensive effort in the area. isw.pub/UkrWar051623

5/ The reinforcements are also likely meant to enhance #Wagner’s ability to capture the remainder of #Bakhmut rapidly and present a Russian tactical victory before possible setbacks during a Ukrainian #counteroffensive operation.

6/ ISW assesses that the Russian military command likely decided to reprioritize operations and sustainment efforts in recent weeks to prepare for potential Ukrainian #counteroffensive operations... isw.pub/UkrWar051623

7/ ...although the continued concentration on #Bakhmut may suggest that immediate tactical concerns could be undermining the larger effort. isw.pub/UkrWar051623