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Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
@TimInHonolulu
May 18 • 6 tweets • 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
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1. With the #Ivanivske road supply-line reopened, #Wanger forces can't hope to starve the remaining #Ukrainian forces fighters like they did in #Mariupol. #Prigozhin, fearful of encirclement, announced he was going to withdraw but the Kremlin threatened him with treason charges. Image
2. So Prigozhin is likely to increase the pace in hopes of defeating the Ukrainian force but there's little evidence he will succeed. At the end of a few days Prigozhin is expected to declare victory and turn Bakhmut's over to the Russian army
3. and try to escape with his mercenary army what he knows is a likely encirclement.

Wednesday saw more Ukrainian advances mostly in the area to the south approaching #Klishchiivka that could be in play soon. Ukrainian forces moving towards Klishchiivka advanced so fast that Image
4. at times they took fire from Russian forces from their rear as they continued to advance. Klishchiivka is defended with trench complexes that interestingly are visible on Google Earth Pro. Here is the settlement. The white circle is the area of the next photo. Image
5. I've highlighted the path of the Russian trench lines. This is on Google Earth Pro. I don't understand why the Ukrainians have not begun combined arms tactics here. Flat ground with some roads. NATO supplied MBTs and IFVs could roll over this ground in short order. Image
6. Employing unsupported dismounted infantry when there are three Ukrainian tank units nearby is hard to comprehend. The Ukrainians protect their tanks like they were Fabergé eggs. At some point they have to jump in and see what they can do with the new western tanks. Image

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More from @TimInHonolulu

Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
May 20
1. As I had guessed, the attack near the airport in Mariupol killed 150 Russian troops in these buildings. Ukraine has begun to strike Russian forces forming in large numbers to be sent to Bakhmut as the battle for control continues amid the failing Russian flanks. Image
2. Ukraine has begun to focus on destroying rail lines supplying Russian forces in southern Ukraine. Today Ukraine used a small drone swarm to strike near the Russian rail hub at ##Dzhankoi in northern #Crimea causing a derailment on the critical rail line. Image
3. This followed a claimed sabotage attack on a rail line further south in Crimea near #Simferopol at #Chystenke that also caused a derailment. Image
Read 9 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
May 19
1. U.S. Will Support F-16 Training for Ukraine nytimes.com/live/2023/05/1…
2. We have already supplied Ukraine with components of a US doctrine air-superiority campaign. They have HARMS but lack the US planes to use them to their full capability. They have MALDS that are being used in Luhansk that mimic aircraft to draw the Russian
3. anti-air missiles to fire at drones. We would deploy JSOW glide bombs to use to take out the missile batteries. SDBS can also fit that role. The last piece is US fighter aircraft to launch the HARMs, SDBs and take on the Russian fighter aircraft.
Read 4 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
May 19
1. Thursday saw #Russian tactical situation worsen around #Bakhmut. Despite #Prigozhin's warnings to the Russian command of the need to reinforce Russian flank at #SakkoiVantsetti, the updated map indicates that Ukraine opened this new line of attack and was already successful. Image
2. The loss of this key position will allow the Ukrainians to move south towards #Bakhmut over very favorable ground. In preparation Ukraine conducted artillery strikes on #Paraskoviika and #Krasnopolivka.
In the south Wagner moved to reinforce the approach to #Klishchiivka with
3. prisoner and mobilized forces that quickly suffered heavy casualties from HIMARS strikes. While the Russian north and southern flanks continue to disintegrate, the Ukrainians have apparently begun a tactic of falling back, out the the area of expected Russian artillery Image
Read 6 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
May 17
1. #Parlatore is leaving, so everyone guesses that his relationship to the Mar-a-Lago searches, that made him a witness, was likely the reason for the outwardly amical departure.
2. But just to keep a jaundiced-eye peeled for misdirection, I looked at Mr. Parlatore's history and found a few nuggets that convinced me we may not be on the right track.
3. In addition to representing Trump, Parlatore has also represented Trump-related clients and at least two of his clients received Trump pardons and both had connections with Rudy Giuliani. Image
Read 11 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
May 17
1. As #Russian commanders expend more forces to take the last #Ukrainian-held area of western #Bakhmut city, the #Ukrainians may be quietly disengaging from the city and instead focusing on a strategy to turn Russian-held Bakhmut into a massive kill zone.
2. The propaganda value to Russian leadership of being able to finally announce taking Bakhmut after over a year of massive casualties may be short-lived if the Ukrainian strategy works. Rather than waste more soldiers and material in beating back the waves
3. of Wagner attackers, Ukraine appears to have chosen to seek the envelopment the Russian position in Bakhmut while the Russians are laser-focused solely on advancing towards what may be a pyrrhic victory of occupying a totally-destroyed Bakhmut city.
Read 6 tweets
Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
May 16
1. Worth noting: In the #Dunphy lawsuit against #RudyGiuliani the plaintiff alleges that, in what appears to be in early 2019, while Giuliani was still Trump's attorney, #RudyGiuliani admitted to Noelle Dunphy that he and #45 were conspiring to sell pardons. Image
2. It's significant that these allegations were made in a "verified complaint" thus they were made under penalty of perjury. As Trump's attorney they can be considered to be Trump's own admissions and are not hearsay. The allegations were stated as personal knowledge Image
3. and IMO could be used to establish the basis for a criminal investigation and support a finding of probable cause. I would think the finances of someone like #ElliottBroidy along with Giuliani and the the Trump crime family might be worth looking at to see if Broidy
Read 5 tweets

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