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ISW Profile picture
@TheStudyofWar
May 19 • 8 tweets • 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The limited nature of #Wagner’s ongoing offensive operations in #Bakhmut compared to the localized Ukrainian counterattacks underscores the loss of Russian initiative in the area. 🧵
isw.pub/UkrWar051823 Image
2/ ISW recently assessed that the Russian military command is reallocating military assets to the #Bakhmut area in order to augment #Wagner’s offensive capabilities and to gain a tactical victory ahead of a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
3/ UKR Eastern Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated on May 18 that UKR forces regained the battlefield initiative & are forcing RU forces to respond to UKR actions, including by transferring Russian Airborne elements to Bakhmut’s flanks in response to UKR advances.
4/ Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar further stated that Russian forces have deployed most of their reserves to the #Bakhmut area, very likely to the detriment of other areas of the frontline.
5/ Meanwhile, Russian milbloggers today claimed that #Wagner forces began assaulting one of the final Ukrainian fortified areas in western #Bakhmut.
6/ And #Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official and prominent Russian information space voice Vladimir Rogov claimed that #Wagner forces cut the Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar road in western #Bakhmut on May 17, although ISW is unable to confirm this claim.
7/ #Prigozhin claimed that #Wagner forces advanced 260 meters in #Bakhmut and that Ukrainian forces only control 1.28 square kilometers of the city.
8/ One milblogger optimistically claimed that #WagnerGroup forces increased their pace of advance following Russian ammunition deliveries to #Wagner, though #Prigozhin’s claimed daily rate of advance has remained largely consistent. isw.pub/UkrWar051823

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
May 21
#Prigozhin claimed that #WagnerGroup forces completely captured #Bakhmut City on May 20, seizing the last multi-story apartment building in SW Bakhmut near the MiG-17 monument. ISW hasn't observed geolocated footage confirming Prigozhin’s claims as of today's publication. (1/6) Image
2/ #Prigozhin announced that #Wagner forces will establish defensive positions before transferring responsibility for the city to Russian conventional forces on May 25. isw.pub/UkrWar052023
3/ #Prigozhin effectively stated that #Wagner forces will conduct an operational pause by resting and restoring combat power at field training camps in unspecified areas, presumably far from the frontline.
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 20
"It's going to have a terrible effect on morale for the Russian forces, officers, and commanders who are going to be operating within #Ukraine."

@TheStudyofWar #Russia analyst @georgewbarros spoke with @insidermildef about the impact of #StormShadow missiles on Russian tactics:
2/ "#Ukraine used the HIMARS to degrade the effectiveness of #Russia's battlefield tactic, which depended heavily on Moscow's ability to stage massive amounts of artillery shells near the front line to sustain a high rate of fire, [@georgewbarros] said.
3/ "To mitigate their new problem, Russian forces had to move their ammunition back outside the range of the HIMARS to prevent it from being destroyed."
Read 7 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 20
A Ukrainian source reported that elements of 2 spetsnaz brigades of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (GRU) have deployed to border areas of #Kursk Oblast in #Russia to conduct counter-sabotage activities & provocations. (1/5) twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
2/ The Ukrainian Resistance Center stated on May 19 that the 3rd and 22nd Guards Special Purpose brigades have deployed to Tyotkino, Kursk Oblast to prevent cross-border Ukrainian partisan activities, carry out cross-border provocations, and raise the morale of Russian forces.
3/ ISW has previously assessed that such Russian deployments to border areas are likely an attempt to fix a portion of Ukrainian forces to border regions and disperse them from critical frontline areas.
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 20
Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks in the Bakhmut area on May 19. Russian milbloggers made varied claims that #Wagner Group forces made either some advances within or completely cleared a Ukrainian fortified area in western #Bakhmut on May 18 and 19. Image
2/ Geolocated footage suggests that Ukrainian forces maintain positions in the fortified area as of May 18, however. isw.pub/UkrWar051923
3/ Various voices in the Russian information space are prematurely declaring that #Wagner forces have completed the capture of #Bakhmut on May 19, drawing ire from other dominant voices.
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 20
#Ukrainian counterattacks near #Bakhmut have notably likely eliminated the threat of a #Russian encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut and ... 1/2

isw.pub/UkrWar051923
... and forced #Russian troops to allocate scarce military resources to defend against a limited and localized offensive effort, as #Ukrainian command likely intended. 2/2

isw.pub/UkrWar051923 Image
3/ Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated on May 19 that Russian forces concentrated most of their reserves in the #Bakhmut direction, which has slowed the rate of Ukrainian advances. isw.pub/UkrWar051923
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 19
#Russia conducted another large-scale missile strike across #Ukraine on the night of May 17 to 18, targeting #Kyiv for the ninth time since the beginning of May. isw.pub/UkrWar051823
2/ Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces launched 22 Kh-101/555 air-launched cruise missiles, six Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles from Black Sea vessels, and two Iskander-K ground-launched cruise missiles at #Kyiv, #Odesa, and #Mykolaiv cities.
3/ Ukrainian Commander in Chief General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed 29 cruise missiles, two Shahed-136/131 drones, and two reconnaissance drones.
Read 4 tweets

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