Thread by @TheStudyofWar

#WagnerGroup financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin and #Wagner sources have long indicated Wagner’s intent to encircle #Bakhmut and trap Ukrainian forces but proved unable to do so after the Ukrainian military command decided to defend the city. 🧵
isw.pub/UkrWar051823

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1659360647493083137

2/ #WagnerGroup financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin admitted on May 18 that #Wagner mercenaries are unable to encircle the Ukrainian forces in #Bakhmut due to the loss of stable flanks north and south of the city. isw.pub/UkrWar051823

3/ #Prigozhin accused the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) of losing advantageous positions after MoD-subordinated units retreated from their positions on #Bakhmut’s flanks necessary for an encirclement.

4/ ISW had previously assessed that Russian forces were unlikely to encircle #Bakhmut after #Wagner forces made several rapid breakthroughs north, south, and east of the city in winter-spring 2023. isw.pub/UkrWar03042023

5/ #Prigozhin likely anticipated that Ukrainian forces would entirely withdraw from Bakhmut out of fear of imminent encirclement and even offered to allow President Volodymyr Zelensky to withdraw Ukrainian forces from the city on March 3.

6/ The Ukrainian defensive operation, however, prioritized the defense of the Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) west of #Bakhmut, which forced #Wagner forces into urban warfare and grinding directly through the city itself.

7/ #Prigozhin’s admission further supports Ukrainian officials’ statements that Wagner is losing the initiative on the battlefield. isw.pub/UkrWar051823