THIS IS #BIG ! #Hawala 2.0 Will EXPLODE in India post JULY 1st. Just My opinion:
By IMPLEMENTING 20% Tax Collected On Source (#TCS) on Foreign Spend (Currency, FX cards, Credit Cards, Debit Cards, Transfers), it becomes Increasingly more Cost Effective to Transfer Via #Hawala
If you try and BUY #Foreign Currency in the Black, that spread that used to be 2-3%, will now become 10% possibly
Unused Balances of Loaded Forex Cards will Go at a Premium of 10-12%
This REMINDS me of what happened in GOLD SMUGGLING in India post June 2022 when @nsitharaman decided to Raise IMPORT duty on GOLD to 12.5% from previous levels of 7.5%
As soon as this #GOLD Import DUTY hike got announced, #WorldGoldCouncil published - report saying that #GOLD#SMUGGLING will EXPLODE since it becomes very profitable to BUY in Black vs Formal which is 15% More Expensive
Back in 2016, the GOVT RAISED the #PAN Requirement for #GOLD & #jewellery purchase from INR 50k to INR 200k. The limit for Mutual Funds, Insurance, Cash Deposits etc is INR 50k. Why will they RAISE the LIMIT on GOLD & JEWELLERY ago INR 200k
Let’s SUMMARISE
1) 20% Tax Collected at Source #TCS will revive #Hawala in a big way
2) GOLD Import Duty Hike in July 2022 resulted in HIGHER GOLD SMUGGLING
3) Raising the #PAN card Threshold on GOLD & JEWELLERY purchase to INR 200k implies REDUCED Disclosure of PURCHASE
This is just a view. It sounds logical to me. If my understanding is wrong, am happy to be corrected.
WILL #ITC Hive off the Non-Tobacco FMCG ?
During Q4 & FY23, Operating PAT Growth delivered by #ITCs non-tobacco #FMCG business has been No1 amongst Peers.
Revenue (+19% YoY) but EBITDA (+76% YoY) & margins a respectable 13.3%
Will Investors Attach Super High PE to Non-Tobac FMCH biz ?
I was looking at DABUR, its Consold Op Profit and PAT declined in FY23 vs FY22... its 3 yr CAGR is just 6% (that's way lower than inflation). Its Fwd PE and EV/EBITDA is 47 & 34 respectively (marketScreener.com)
Now lets look at ITC Non-Tobacco FMCG business. Q4 Segment EBITDA up 76% YoY against Q4 Segment Revenue up 19.4% YoY
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#Thread on how the #Foundation Stones & #Modus Operandi for dairy farmers of #Gujarat, who could eventually control not just Karnataka's Pride #Nandini but India's Entire #Dairy Industry
Crystal Ball Gazing into the future!!
CHRONOLOGY 1) Amul Enters a mkt 2) Jul-21: Union govt formed Min of Cooperation under #AmitShah 3) Dec-22: Amendments are made to the Multi-State Co-op Societies Act, allowing State Milk Coops to Merge 4) Dec-22: Amit Shah spoke of a possible #Amul#Nandini Merger
However (contd)
....While there is "No Merger on the cards", nothing stops the Elected Govt of Karnataka & Gujarat to merge #Amul & #Nandini since the Amendments to the Multi-State Co-op Societies Act are cast in stone (lets dig in)
This RANKING Is entirely OBJECTIVE and NOT Survey based. How do they calculate it - Stepwise
1) For each travel destination, if no visa is required for passport holders from a country or territory, then a score with value = 1 is created for that passport.