Tim Hogan 浩勤 Profile picture
May 23 8 tweets 6 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1. I recall the Russian state was overthrown once in history. A foolish #Tsar chose to support his cousin and joined a war against another cousin. The Tsar was not a very good commander and the war did not go well for Russia. Eventually people rose up and shot the Tsar.
2. Today that history may be repeating. It started with artillery strikes on the area of a Russian border control point attacked from #Ukrainian territory by approximately 50 #Russiannationals. After securing the control point approximately 500 more Russian nationals moved in and Image
3. began taking towns until they reached #Grayvoron where they were eventually met by Russian forces trying to halt the advance. The invading force started with one #tank an #IFV and several #Humvees and also captured vehicles in Russia. ImageImage
3. Panic ensued as the towns in the path of the incursion began to evacuate while Russian helicopters flew overhead dropping flares above rooftops. Image
4. There were reports of artillery being used by both the attackers and the Russian defenders near #Grayvoron. The Russian national attackers conducted drone strikes that included strikes on the #InternalAffairsMinistry and the #FSB. Image
5. There were reports of explosions 4km north of Grayvoron where #tacticalnukes had been stored but it is reported they were removed some time ago. I had spotted these bunkers yesterday on Google Earth and though they may not have nukes they looked to be still operational
6. and would not surprise me if they hold conventional munitions. This photo is less than two years old and it shows the bunkers and the surrounding area were at that time still well-maintained. Image
7. The most-recent report is that fighting in Grayvoron continues. The operation was conducted by members of the #FreedomRussiaLegion and the #RussianVolunteerCorps. I don't think this is the last Putin's terrorist crime state sees of these folks. Image

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More from @TimInHonolulu

May 24
1. The operation around #Belgorod is reported to have been more extensive than originally reported. The #RussianVolunteerCorps and #FreedomOfRussiaLegion may have withdrawn back to Ukraine but the incursion was on a larger scale than previously reported. ImageImage
2. The original incursion on the left of this map shows the fallback positions prior to withdrawal, with the Russian mechanized unit pushing forward. To the east, the anti-Putin forces also pressed on two other lines of advance. Because Russia has no reserve forces, detachments Image
3. of FSB security forces moved to counter but only after their HQ was attacked by drones. Reports are the FSB did not fare well. These two eastern incursions may have been brief but apparently accomplished a Ukrainian strategic objective of forcing Russian commanders to rapidly Image
Read 4 tweets
May 24
1. We made the same mistake with China we made with Russia. Our IC's blindness about China in the mid-1980s was repeated when the Soviet Union collapsed. We had the power to make being part of our economic world require liberal democratic principals. Barring that, a polite
2. but firm denial of advanced technology or markets should have been the stick to the carrot of the US economy. But as Chairman Mao warned, the "silver coated bullets of capitalism" made us blind to what they both had in store. We craved the Chinese labor and consumer markets
3. and the abundant Russian natural resources. And when the mortgage crisis brought the western economies to their knees, dirty Russian money was freely available but it came with a special price: Corruption that is so pervasive to have even infected the NY FBI.
Read 8 tweets
May 22
1. In second E. Jean Carroll case that was removed from state court, Ms Carroll filed a motion for leave to amend her complaint to add the defamatory statements made after verdict and harmonize pleading with jury findings. Link to redline. timinhonolulu.com/2023/05/22/1-i…
2. The proposed first amended complaint adopts the jury finding of sexual assault that globally replaces the rape allegations.

#45 is about to learn a new legal term: collateral estoppel.
3. The courts have developed doctrines that are meant to prevent taking two-bites of the apple. When an issue has been decided, was actually litigated, is necessary to the judgment and between the same parties or those in privity, that fact is decided and can't be relitigated.
Read 7 tweets
May 22
1. We understandably view the term propaganda in a negative light. But when I studied it many years ago, it was defined by type. This is the good type. Truthful official statement that has a defined purpose or goal. And with a hint that something may be coming. Perhaps very soon.
2. I remain of the view, reported earlier, that the step back from Bakhmut had a clear strategic purpose. Wagner is now able to disengage. The Russian forces rushing to fill the imminent vacuum are all weakening other areas. By reaching out to the individual Russian fighter
3. with options that are covered by the Geneva convention, and with the history of Ukrainian AF following the law of armed conflict, even in the face of Russian AF violations, they've set the conditions for mass surrenders. I fall back to my experience in the war to defeat ISIS.
Read 4 tweets
May 21
1. @JoeBiden's comment about how #Russia should be concerned about the #F16s, is spot-on and consistent with my view that, when #Ukraine controls its skies the Russia forces will forced to withdraw. I report on the #Syrian war to defeat #ISIS. With US air power, light militia
2. forces were able to defeat a force of over 70,000 crazed ISIS terrorists. #SDF are brave, disciplined and willing to fight but until they had US air support they were unable to gain traction and had their backs against the wall in #Kobane.
3. I closely observed the way they were able to advance and that informs me on how the battle in Ukraine will change. First, the trench war will be over. Any Russian trench complex will become an easy target for massive US JDAMS that Russian forces won't survive. When Ukraine
Read 8 tweets
May 21
1. As the final Ukrainian forces withdrew from #Bakhmut towards #Ivaniske Russia continued to send forces to reinforce Bakhmut's flanks giving #Ukrainian #HIMARS crews many opportunities to attack and destroy Russian troops and equipment in transit.
2. Friday's attack on the Russian forces near #Mariupol turned out to be an underground command and control HQ for #Vuhledar and #Zaporizhia forces that resulted in the deaths of 24 Russian forces and 37 wounded. More long-range strikes on other targets in an around Image
3. #Mariupol resulted in large losses of equipment. Strike reported in #Tokmak was confirmed but awaits details. In #Donetsk HIMARS strikes destroyed as many as 10 T-90 tanks east of Mar'inka. Rapid redeployment of Russian forces has given Ukraine many targets of opportunity. Image
Read 6 tweets

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