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ISW Profile picture
@TheStudyofWar
Jun 4 • 4 tweets • 6 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
#Donetsk Axis: #Bakhmut

Regular #Russian forces have likely largely relieved #WagnerGroup forces in Bakhmut amid a low offensive tempo in the area as of June 3.

#Prigozhin claimed on June 2 that 99 percent of his #Wagner units have left Bakhmut. isw.pub/UkrWar060323 ImageImageImage
2/ The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that degraded Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) elements, including those of the 76th VDV Division, 106th VDV Division, and two unspecified brigades have deployed to the #Bakhmut area and are increasing their role in the area. Image
3/ A #Russian milblogger claimed that Russian and #Ukrainian forces are conducting positional engagements on the northern and southern flanks of #Bakhmut. Image
4/ The milblogger claimed that #Ukrainian forces are strengthening defensive lines in this area because #Russian forces aim to restart their offensive effort on June 5, the claimed completion date of the #Wagner withdrawal from #Bakhmut. isw.pub/UkrWar060323 Image

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
Jun 5
ISW is committed to helping policymakers and the public understand what is occurring in #Ukraine without reporting details that would in any way compromise Ukraine’s ability to liberate its occupied lands.

Follow-up 🧵on ISW policy and what to expect from us ⬇️
2/ We will remain conservative in mapping and assessing Ukrainian advances given that control of terrain may rapidly change during mechanized operations.
3/ ISW will not compromise Ukrainian operational security or report on anything the Russians don’t already know based on our extensive and detailed study of Russian publicly available sources.
Read 6 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jun 5
Russian and Ukrainian officials are signaling the start of the Ukrainian #counteroffensive. ISW has observed increased combat activity in different sectors of the frontline and assesses that Ukrainian forces are making territorial gains despite Russian claims to the contrary.🧵⬇️
2/ The signals include Russian MoD claims that Ukrainian forces launched an unsuccessful “large-scale offensive” on June 4 & Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar’s June 5 statement that Ukrainian forces are “transferring to offensive actions” in some unspecified areas.
3/ Russian officials have historically immediately claimed that Ukrainian counter-offensives failed even when the counter-offensives ultimately succeed.
Read 7 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jun 5
Southern #Ukraine:

Ukrainian forces conducted local ground attacks and reportedly made limited tactical gains in western #Donetsk Oblast and eastern #Zaporizhia Oblast on June 4. isw.pub/UkrWar060423 ImageImage
2/ Ukrainian forces continued to target frontline and rear areas in southern #Ukraine. Russian sources claimed that Russian air defenses intercepted Ukrainian missiles targeting #Berdyansk and #Melitopol on June 3. isw.pub/UkrWar060423
3/ Russian sources also claimed that Ukrainian forces struck additional areas in #Zaporizhia Oblast on June 4: near #Melitopol, northeast of Melitopol near Chernihivka, and near the frontline near Verbove and Polohy. isw.pub/UkrWar060423
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jun 5
#Kharkiv-#Luhansk Axis

Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces are attempting to regain the initiative on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.

Ukrainian & Russian forces both claimed to have made limited territorial gains on the Kupyansk-Svatove line on June 4. ImageImageImageImage
2/ Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Ukrainian forces successfully advanced 400 meters in an unspecified area in the Svatove direction and liberated a significant area of the Ivanivskyi forest. isw.pub/UkrWar060423 Image
3/ Russian sources claimed that Russian forces crossed the #Oskil River and seized Novomlynsk (21km NE of #Kupyansk) but noted the absence of photo or video evidence for this claimed advance. isw.pub/UkrWar060423 Image
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jun 5
#Wagner Group financier Yevgeny #Prigozhin claimed on June 4 that Ukrainian forces may have regained positions in SW #Bakhmut, supporting repeated Ukrainian reports that Ukrainian forces maintain positions on the southwestern outskirts of the city. isw.pub/UkrWar060423 ImageImage
2/ #Prigozhin claimed that some unspecified reports suggest that #Ukrainian forces established observation posts in the southwestern outskirts of #Bakhmut and recommended that the #Russian forces in the city take action if these reports are true.
3/ Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar and other Ukrainian officials have continuously reported that Ukrainian forces maintain positions in the southwestern outskirts of #Bakhmut since May 20, when #Prigozhin claimed that #Wagner forces seized the entirety of the city.
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jun 5
The dissonant Russian responses to and reporting about the limited raid in #Belgorod Oblast continue to suggest that the Russian leadership has not yet decided how to react to these limited cross-border raids into #Russia. isw.pub/UkrWar060423
2/ The contradictory reporting from official Russian sources about the situation in #Belgorod Oblast and Gladkov’s apparent personal decision to respond to the RDK and LSR suggests that the MoD and Gladkov are not coordinating their responses to the raids.
3/ ISW has previously reported that Russian officials have disproportionately responded to the limited raids into #Russia to assuage growing Russian anxiety about the war in #Ukraine while supporting ongoing info operations that aim to present the war as existential to Russia.
Read 4 tweets

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