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ISW is not ready to assess who or what is responsible for destroying the #KakhovkaDam in #Kherson but notes that we forecast in October 2022 that the Russians would do so.
That forecast was inaccurate at the time, but the reasoning supporting the forecast was & remains valid. 🧵
That forecast was inaccurate at the time, but the reasoning supporting the forecast was & remains valid. 🧵
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1582938879329722369
2/ ISW assessed on October 19, 2022, that Russian forces would blow the #KakhovkaDam to cover their withdrawal from #Kherson Oblast and to prevent Ukrainian forces from pursuing Russian forces deeper into left (east) bank Kherson, likely blaming #Ukraine. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct…
3/ #Russia's "continued preparation for a false-flag attack on the #KakhovkaDam is also likely meant to distract from reports of Russian losses in Kherson Oblast," we assessed on October 20. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct…
4/ "#Ukraine has no material interest in blowing the dam, which could flood 80 Ukrainian cities and displace hundreds of thousands of people while damaging Ukraine’s already-tenuous electricity supply," ISW assessed on October 21. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct…
5/ "#Russia, however, has every reason to attempt to provide cover to its retreating forces and to widen the #Dnipro River, which Ukrainian forces would need to cross to continue their counteroffensive." isw.pub/RusCampaignOct…
6/ "Any claims that Russian forces would not blow the dam due to concerns for the water supply to #Crimea are absurd," our October 21 assessment added. isw.pub/RusCampaignOct…
7/ "#Crimea survived without access to the canal flowing from the Dnipro since Russia illegally invaded and annexed it in 2014 through the restoration of access following Russia’s invasion in February 2022." isw.pub/RusCampaignOct…
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