🟥Do you believe attacking tankers is something unfamiliar to Trump or to insurance companies? Why did insurance companies cancel their policies this time?
Here, from 2019:
July 2019
Middle Eastern Oil: Is Trump making the situation worse?
Dr. Anas Alhajji / Contributing Editor
The recent attacks on two tankers (Table 1) carrying naphtha and methanol in the Gulf of Oman were well-planned by a powerful group that has access to intelligence, information, military hardware, and experts. A group that wants to derail any possible negotiations between Iran and the U.S., direct or indirect. It succeeded, for now.
President Trump visited Japan at the end of last May. He asked Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to visit Tehran, to mediate between the Trump administration and the Iranian regime, on the hope of having a direct dialogue between the two countries.
While Abe was in Tehran, the attacks on the two tankers took place, one carrying naphtha to Japan, and the other one, carrying methanol, is owned by a Japanese company. The timing and the targets cannot be a coincidence.
Someone wants to derail Abe’s effort. Someone who wants to make sure that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran will not happen. While there is a list of possible suspects, it is clear that IRG (Iranian Revolutionary Guard) tops the list. They will do whatever is necessary to derail such negotiations. The Iranian government is under massive political and economic pressure to negotiate, but the IRG and their supreme leader are not.
While Japan is the common element in the attacks mentioned above, the common element in the previous attacks on two tankers in Fujairah in the UAE, and the pumping stations of the East-West pipeline in the middle of the desert in Saudi Arabia, is that all of them circumvent the Strait of Hormuz. The most powerful card Iran has in its war chest is the significance of the Strait to the world, where about 19 MMbopd pass through. Pipelines in the UAE and Saudi Arabia that circumvent the Strait reduce Iran’s bargaining power.
Main Impact
Saudi Arabia, and to some extent the UAE, established themselves as reliable and dependable suppliers of energy. Any attacks or disruptions, caused by anyone in the region, harm this strategic objective. Long-term losses from being viewed as unreliable suppliers are massive, as politicians and policymakers in oil-consuming countries reduce dependence on oil imports from the region and, in some cases, reduce dependence on oil altogether. This might explain why countries in the region would like to maintain pressure on Iran, but without escalation.
Here, from 2019:
July 2019
Middle Eastern Oil: Is Trump making the situation worse?
Dr. Anas Alhajji / Contributing Editor
The recent attacks on two tankers (Table 1) carrying naphtha and methanol in the Gulf of Oman were well-planned by a powerful group that has access to intelligence, information, military hardware, and experts. A group that wants to derail any possible negotiations between Iran and the U.S., direct or indirect. It succeeded, for now.
President Trump visited Japan at the end of last May. He asked Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to visit Tehran, to mediate between the Trump administration and the Iranian regime, on the hope of having a direct dialogue between the two countries.
While Abe was in Tehran, the attacks on the two tankers took place, one carrying naphtha to Japan, and the other one, carrying methanol, is owned by a Japanese company. The timing and the targets cannot be a coincidence.
Someone wants to derail Abe’s effort. Someone who wants to make sure that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran will not happen. While there is a list of possible suspects, it is clear that IRG (Iranian Revolutionary Guard) tops the list. They will do whatever is necessary to derail such negotiations. The Iranian government is under massive political and economic pressure to negotiate, but the IRG and their supreme leader are not.
While Japan is the common element in the attacks mentioned above, the common element in the previous attacks on two tankers in Fujairah in the UAE, and the pumping stations of the East-West pipeline in the middle of the desert in Saudi Arabia, is that all of them circumvent the Strait of Hormuz. The most powerful card Iran has in its war chest is the significance of the Strait to the world, where about 19 MMbopd pass through. Pipelines in the UAE and Saudi Arabia that circumvent the Strait reduce Iran’s bargaining power.
Main Impact
Saudi Arabia, and to some extent the UAE, established themselves as reliable and dependable suppliers of energy. Any attacks or disruptions, caused by anyone in the region, harm this strategic objective. Long-term losses from being viewed as unreliable suppliers are massive, as politicians and policymakers in oil-consuming countries reduce dependence on oil imports from the region and, in some cases, reduce dependence on oil altogether. This might explain why countries in the region would like to maintain pressure on Iran, but without escalation.
https://x.com/anasalhajji/status/2035138027962401057
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