Wow. This is a super-interesting story by @a_cormier_ and @JasonLeopold. It has a dozen interesting dimensions. I am going to mention only a few of them here. I urge people to read the whole thing, which I am still digesting.
For starters, I want to stress that I don’t have a unified field theory to explain what the story means. But it reflects a pattern of highly interesting Russian government financial transactions that any serious investigation would be taking seriously.
And Robert Mueller is, at least according to the story, doing exactly that.
Before diving in, let me note that there are at least three reasons to take Cormier and Leopold seriously. The first is that they identified specific wire transfers to and from Paul Manafort as important in the days *before* his indictment.
The second is that their reporting—in that story, in one that followed this past fall, and in this one—seems to reflect actual law enforcement sources. That does not necessarily mean Mueller folks, but they do seem to have a line into some stream of actual information.
The third is that the subject of this story—and the one before it—is a remarkably interesting set of data: Treasury Department suspicious activity reporting by Citibank about Russian government banking activity.
Following the money is off the beaten track in the current reporting on L’Affaire Russe. And it may turn out to be not the most fruitful path in the long run. It is, however, a very interesting path. And if their information is good, it looks like an increasingly promising one.
Cormier and Leopold took a lot of criticism for their earlier story on wire transfers to the Russian embassy. Without rehashing the controversy, I will say that I said at the time that the story warranted more consideration than it was receiving. This followup emphasizes that.
All that said, the story raises more questions than it answers.
It is not obvious that this pattern of money movement has anything to do with L’Affaire Russe. It could be legitimate, though I’m not entirely sure how.
It could also be evidence of routine Russian graft of the type the Putin regime is known for.
It could also be evidence of intelligence activity that is unrelated to the U.S. election interference—though the coincidence in time of some of the transactions would be, well, coincidental.
But it also could be walking-around money that is connected to the broader Russian election interference. Bottom line, in my view, is that it’s probably time for other reporters to start taking this investigative line more seriously.
I’ve asked @a_cormier_ to join me today on the @lawfareblog Podcast to discuss the story, what we know, what we don’t know, and what it all means.
That’s all I got—for now.
