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Farzan Sabet Profile picture
Farzan Sabet
@IranWonk
Senior Research Associate @GVAGrad_GGC focused on sanctions, nuclear non-proliferation, and Middle East security. Alumnus @UNIDIR, @StanfordCISAC, and @McGillU.
Apr 1 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
A few preliminary thoughts on the #Israel|i strike on the #Iran|ian diplomatic facility in Damascus, Syria:

1. According to #IRGC public relations seven of its personnel (including its senior most general in Lebanon and Syria) were killed. 1/
Image This takes the total number of #Iran|ian personnel killed by #Israel in #Syria since 7 October 2023 to 16.

2. In November 2023 Iran's FM said killing of its personnel there would not go unanswered but it's unclear if there has been any direct retaliations for these deaths. 2/ Image
Mar 31, 2022 • 9 tweets • 7 min read
The lack of a viable #Israel|i strategy to the #Iran nuclear issue after nearly two decades of dealing with it is shocking.

#Bennet tells #Blinken Iran can be deterred from 90% enrichment via #Russia level sanctions.

There are some problem with this. 1/ axios.com/newsletters/ax… While #Iran and #Russia sanctions regimes are complex and comparison is hard #Iran sanctions are arguably more comprehensive. Critically its energy exports are sanctioned whereas #Russia's are relatively unfettered. Iran is a template for Russia sanctions not other way around. 2/
Nov 28, 2020 • 25 tweets • 8 min read
Now that the smoke has cleared somewhat, a few thoughts on the assassination of Mohsen #Fakhrizadeh:

1. What does it mean for Iran's nuclear program?

2. How will it affect future #JCPOA talks? And

3. How will it affect Iranian and regional politics? 1/ What does it mean for Iran's nuclear program? #Fakhrizadeh is said to have headed the AMAD plan: Scientific and technological projects allegedly aimed to give the IRI the capability to build a nuclear explosive device. This murder represents both practical and symbolic blows. 2/
Oct 30, 2018 • 18 tweets • 16 min read
Excited to share my first piece in 18 months and in @ForeignPolicy, co-authored w/ Simon Miles, an assistant professor @DukeSanford, completing a book on US-Soviet relations during the early 1980s based on new Eastern bloc archival sources. 1/ foreignpolicy.com/2018/10/30/wha… Context: @mike_giglio had an excellent piece last month on how the #Trump admin may be executing a strategy of "maximum pressure" against #Iran, partly inspired by the book "Victory" & its claim that Reagan used this strategy to defeat the Soviet Union. 2/ buzzfeednews.com/article/mikegi…
Nov 27, 2017 • 10 tweets • 9 min read
New @nytimes piece captures recent wave of #Iran|ian nationalism, particularly among non-principlists (-conservatives), that seasoned analysts have been noting for some time. But there are some important caveats to consider. nytimes.com/2017/11/26/wor… 1/ Article starts w/ beheading of Mohsen Hojaji by #ISIL. Then, bizarrely, article attributes cause of nationalist wave to #Trump & #Saudi. ISIL carried out terrorist attack on #Tehran!!! It is arguably larger structural factor that triggered wave since 2014, but largely ignored! 2/