Market musings

Tradfi is going to (almost traditionally) soon have round-tripped the election move.

Then what?

It’s tough, because Trump’s policies on paper are, without a sliver of a doubt inflationary. Less immigration = higher salaries
Deportation = higher salaries
Tariffs = higher prices

Ie Inflation.

Inflation implies the Fed does not cut rates (as much), which means leas liquidity.

Had some talks with crypto & securities lawyers re $ETH ETF approval.

Will try to put what I heard in a 🧵 here, just listing things.

To be clear: not legal advice, not financial advice. Opinions of people and conclusions of a frog with a hockey stick only. DYOR. I know nothing 1/ What can SEC do?

Come May 23rd, SEC can deny, approve or ask issuers to pull applications.

In case of denial or pulling, issuers can re-apply immediately, starting a new max 240 day clock

ARK is first on block and may just agree to pull. In June, Grayscale is the big one.

There is one black swan for crypto atm:

An SEC denial of $ETH spot ETFs.

I don‘t know how likely it is and, ceteris paribus, I would expect it leads to a V-shaped recovery in all alts but ETH, but it would bring about the typical 30-40% correction of previous Bull markets. I do not know how likely it is. I think the legal arguments, as I understand them, should heavily favor approval.

Outright denial or asking issuers to pull and refile likely leads to another Grayscale lawsuit with very,very similar arguments (few% diff in correlation irrelevant)

Oke, so where are we right now in crypto markets?

Indicators first:
- Open Interest is almost back to highs
- Funding has cooled by about half, but is still very hot
- Real $ price is in line with $USDT prices (Coinbase v Binance)
- RSI/MACD still super extended
- $WIF ATH



Charts next (even included the famous Tone-Vays-RightWingRadical count to 9 indicator):

- $BTC between levels and has to break yesterday's candle top to look good
- $ETH already looks super good like it just wants higher
- $SOL looks in between the two, unsure of itself

Oke. Honestly, I hedged a part of my book again. Kicked out smol Memecoin positions I had too. I am too scared for this market. Some charts look like they need to let out some air. Will be back when we see any kind of re-set. Smol is enough for me 👉👈. Or if I get stopped LOL. Not advice. In this stage of the market I literally have zero advantage over anyone :).

I think we are currently running too hot with leverage, but on any actual leverage re-set, I would look to add to various alts (or TWAP over 10 days now), as I expect alt market cap to go to ATHs and beyond (unless an $ETH ETF is denied or the world ends).

Smol 🧵on my favs 👇 Important:
- I may have already bought these!
- these are additions to my '24 picks:
- none of this is advice. Don't know where markets go, I am a frog with a hockey stick
- if I am right, any left curve thinking likely outperforms me

No particular order:

https://x.com/dkcrypto13/status/1736734822754591203

Many of you have probably noticed I keep talking about how "Coinbase is leading" or "real USD demand" as opposed to "funny Dollars". I also keep saying the $BTC ETF is the cause of this rally (and $ETH getting one next).

Let me explain how you can see for yourself.

Smol 🧵👇 1/ What is the Tether premium?

I refer to the indicator as "Tether premium" in my article on how I like to trade crypto (). It is still a good read btw.

It used to be a very good indicator for when Tether is pushing prices. Now it has another function.medium.com/coinmonks/indi…

Depending on who you ask, "FDV is a meme" or "bro that coin is $20bn market cap, down only LOL".

So what is right? Does FDV matter or is it irrelevant and only circulating supply matters?

It's actually both 🤪

Smol educational 🧵on FDV and Circulating Market Cap in crypto 👇 1/ What is FDV and market cap?

FDV stands for "fully diluted value". It is the number of all coins that can be created for a given token x it's current price per token. Today for example, $WLD is up 40% and now trades at an FDV of $70bn, likely a totally absurd value.

I put out what I think about $WHALES before, but now I want to focus on $JLP - the $JUP perpetual liquidity token. I think it is truly a situation of "few understand". It is the better $GMX rn.

So, a short 🧵on @JupiterExchange perp liquidity provider token $JLP. Not advice.👇

https://twitter.com/dkcrypto13/status/1754114503631937667

1/ What is $JLP token?

$JLP is the liquidity provider token for the @JupiterExchange perpetual exchange. It is a participation in the liquidity pool that is used for people to trade perps. You can find it going to , then perpetuals, then "Earn".jup.ag

No position, but $COIN, valued at the same sales multiple as Nasdaq but getting absolutely all the ETF volume now and in the future is probably a pretty easy buy here at $133. Sure, it can fall more, but still. Not advice. Pulled the trigger today. Bought a small amount of $COIN

So I thought I’d use the time while we consolidate and shake some leveraged apes to share my current view on #crypto #picks for 2024. It’s personal opinion, not advice and yes, you should assume I have a bag 🤷🏻‍♂️. So here it goes: 1/ Let’s start with the obvious one. I think 2024 will be the year when $ETH strongly outperforms $BTC. Right now, you have all the ETF momentum and ordinals etc that carry #bitcoin. Meanwhile #ethereum fundamentals are strong.

1/ #Yield generation for $USDC, $USDT, $DAI or other #stablecoins has been pretty much dead after #FTX and the #Mango hack. However, there is still a very nice opportunity to generate high yield in #Defi:

#Acumen, home on #AVAX @avalancheavax. A short 🧵 shows how to get it: 2/ #Acumen generates #yield from real world #microfinance activities. It is based in #ElSalvador and that is also its first market. The team genuinely wants to improve lives of the people who live there and they just launched on #AVAX.

How does microfinance generate the yield?

Amazing, everyone already knows that FOMC is going to be uber Bullish, taking bets that markets will rally and within days this rate hike, regardless if 50, 75 or 100bps will make us forget all worries 😍. True goldilocks coming. At least according to risk assets… I mean, yes I know initial reactions are often corrected, but sorry:

Ha ha ha.

WTF were people really bidding up that market so much before?!

Lose macro observations…

In Germany, CO2 used for carbonated drinks is in tight supply, someone at the supermarket mentioned nobody has „normal“ crisps (that‘s paprika in Germany) anymore, heating tariffs jumped by 250% on average… producer price inflation is 35% (not a typo). At the same time, the US Dollar is strongest in a long, long time, which squeezes Emerging markets whose debt is often denominated in USD and the Fed & other central banks have to continue quantitative tightening till people can breathe again under the weight of inflation.

Been bashing the "it's priced in" talk recently... Here is what I really think:

I think short term bond markets have priced in all that's likely
I think long term bond markets are waiting to see impact on economy
I think stocks have not priced balance sheet reduction at all Obviously, not advice, though I'd fail to read what that advice would be anyways.

I am on record stating that using $BTC as a national currency if you aren't using another country's one today is madness.

However, the dead end central banks are in (inflation too high, cannot raise rates much without causing debt crisis) is single most Bullish long term driver. You can only solve this kind of dilemma if you have the world's reserve currency (you simply forgive the debt to yourself), but the USD is shaky and the EUR certainly is not the world reserve OR you do a currency reform. The latter is much harder when a "hard" alternative exists.

Today I was humbled by the markets. Trading has been an absolute grind these past weeks and I also slept way too little.

I had it all right last night and had I kept that position, I’d have brought my book almost back to end of 2020 levels.

https://twitter.com/dkcrypto13/status/1489431637574262794

So far in January I managed to be down just about singe digits in a long-biased mandate, which is still good with markets -25 to 30% in crypto & basically tracking the Nasdaq with a crypto book, but last night I decided against my tweet setup above last minute and kept hedges on.

I really love all the project we work with. Truly. But my favorite project in #crypto at the moment is doing its #IDO soon so I wanted to share a bit: Acumen Network @acumenofficial building on #solana.

A 🧵on why I like it so much and why I think it‘s just what #DeFi needs:

https://twitter.com/dexlab_official/status/1480102792669065216

1/ Acumen has set out to use the power of #DeFi to bring #microfinance to underserved segments of the world, starting in El Salvador.

Microfinance means giving out very small loans to people who otherwise don’t have access to financing to start a business or keep it going.

I think that this relief rally will give us Bearish re-tests across the board for $BTC ($46k, maaaaaybe $53k), $ETH ($3500, maaaaaybe $3800), $SOL (155, maaaaybe 167) and practically all other alts too. Not because the market is broken, but because I think... ... we've taken it far enough with useless coins that have only a "community" (aka apes mislead by marketing or influencers) and nothing else. So I think that should wash out before we can truly continue higher. Hedging my useful coins to a large degree with meme coins & scams...

I think we look pretty bad, but I also think we are due relief. I know that‘s not helpful, but I kinda think after weekend shenanigans are over we follow tradfi again and I‘d be more inclined to lean relief rally than more doom. Not advice. Purely musings. $38-41k is most stacked area with bids on bitfinex. If we fall through that area I think we see a liquidation cascade to $30k. I think mid term it‘s 70% likely we test that liquidity again. But it also is the best chance for any bounce. If there is one.

Sitting right at the bitfinex buy wall. We break through this and 42k looks pretty fast… not advice 42.55k was the last bitfinex buy wall before 40.5k, so I got a small bid filled at 42.65k… small. Very small. Not advice. Not even small advice