There are clear signs we will rally & bottom is in:
- negative news being absorbed, price no longer crashes
- difficulty low, mining profitable, less centralized & greener than in May
- Leverage premium negative for $ETH & $BTC
- #tether premium is negative
- funding has been consistently negative
- Futures are flat/small contango
Basically there is little enthusiasm about #bitcoin price and sellers are exhausted. The market is without direction but squeezing up is easier than squeezing down.
Unfortunately there is a second side to this:
- it’s obvious global regulators are finally (slowly) aligning on bringing down #binance & #tether. This could take time and may not end in an extinction of both, but it very well could. That is the mother of all black swans.
I couldn’t sleep before I researched this further.
Let’s put to rest the assertion that $USDC is just the new $USDT and just as sketchy at #tether because the monthly attestations by a Top auditor aren’t full audits. This can all be wrong, but think for yourselves:
For every month, without fail, Grant Thornton attests that the USD held by @circlepay for $USDC match the token in circulation. This report is not, as with #tether, an irregular, unclear document. It is very clear.
Check the screenshots.
You got an auditor saying “we attest that we have seen the cash or approved investments” in the value of outstanding token every month (!).
Note that auditor liability increases with value, so yes the 2021 reports have been later in general than in 2020, but that is to be…
I think it is good to be skeptical and there is literally no person with a brain in the entire industry who truly thinks that $USDT was not used to manipulate prices in 2017 or that it is backed with cash.
Everyone knows it is the biggest tail risk in this space and most people would probably rather it disappears.
However, recently more than before, I notice you guys are taking the high moral ground but you use the exact same “scam” tactics for your own arguments. You repost
articles without fact checking because they fit your bias, then ignore corrections, you don’t care about any use of #crypto because it seems you cannot stand the thought of it not all going to zero. Everything is a scam & everyone a scammer. You may not feel that way,
#Tether is an unregistered, unsecured debt security.
What does that mean?
"Unregistered debt security": 1 $USDT is a promise by Tether Inc to pay you back $1 should you request it back without interest. It is, funnily enough, not unlike commerical paper.
The way that it was sold (ie promising audits that never came, pretending the assets that "back" it sit in a bank account and playing as if you had any legal claims to those assets) make it a debt security in my view and it should have had a proper prospectus.
"Unsecured": There are no assets that legally back up 1 $USDT. ZERO. You have a company that has no contract with you. They say "we will always 'peg' it to 1 $". They do not explain what this peg means. It is just an internal accounting procedure and you have to take their word.
Just wanted to make sure you are all aware of the things that could happen to #bitcoin, so you do not need to panic dump on every headline re $BTC:
- #tether could turn out to be an unregistered security, backed by unregistered securities
- tax authorities might add a carbon tax
- more and more countries will outlaw #crypto mining
- the blockchain is a fully tansparent ledger, so as crystal, chainalysis and other ramp up their tools, #dex will block addresses that involved mixing and tax authorities will know absolutely every one of your moves & tax you
- China and India will ban #bitcoin at least 8 more times
- large exchanges like Coinbase or binance will be hacked, maybe even disappear because of regulatory action in some cases
- AWS will go down and #BSC will not be reachable
- Stablecoins will be regulated
Look guys, everything can always be a scam. But the allegations hurled @circlepay from the #tether skeptics (of which I am one) are a bit too aggressive & too early.
Ever since assets climbed above $3bn, attestations have been later and later. That is reasonable ->
Why? Because an auditor (and this is not an audit, but an auditor attesting to it) has a liability, so while it may be easy for them to attest to $400m, the current $16bn might be might more of a risk. Also $USDC is cross-chain; the larger it gets the more difficult to count ->
And yet, we are STILL within the timing of their last release (its still 8 days before it exceeds that and I'd assume it is natural that it will).
So yes - it could be another #crypto scam. It's possible. But saying a Goldman & Coinbased backed venture
Wanted to put out an article but no time. So I’ll try like this. Within my trading methodology we have left Bull market territory and are now in between. I called that consolidation in my trading article (bit.ly/3yg5bkQ).
What does that mean?
It means that consolidations have started to drift downwards instead of up and while a return to new highs is definitely possible, it is now 50/50 that we enter a full Bear market first. We have established an early pattern of a lower high and a lower low as well.
There are strong fundamental headwinds for $BTC to consider now:
1) Inflation is showing up everywhere and the labor market seems okay in the US. New debt issuance will exceed Fed purchases for the first time in a while soon and the Fed is likely to begin looking at a taper.
When they announced their pie chart to the #crypto world, everyone (incl me) was like "Okay, they are backed, great - let's move on".
The thing is - I don't think we can move on actually...
I have written before (cutt.ly/pbZKGiC) the main issue is not that #tether is backed with something these days, but what that backing is and whether that means $USDT should trade as a stablecoin pegged 1-1 to the USD.
Their publication actually means they should not...
Let's look at their breakdown of assets and believe it without a second thought.
You can see that the #tether reserves consist of a grand total of 3.87% in actual cash. All else are instruments that any company might use to park their cash in, however there are some problems...
Just thought of some #crypto personalities:
- @TheCryptoDog: The Warren Buffet of crypto. Always friendly, loves what he buys, finds value, never sells
- @AltcoinPsycho: The Jim Simons of crypto. Quant trading, options, return, but good person.
- @CryptoDonAlt: George Soros of crypto. Will speculate against the crowd, remains a good person with sound advice.
- @SalsaTekila: the Jesse Livermore of Crypto. "Colossal gains and colossal losses" sounds like his twitter feed.
- @woonomic: Ray Dalio of crypto. Best at macro.
Disbelief levels as measures by leverage premium continue to look good now. In order for me to actually believe #tether is done extracting $, I want to ideally see both dotted blue lines hold on an hourly closing basis. #bitcoin
And in a truly perfect world, someone other than Michael Saylor or Elon Musk announces they bought all the spot $BTC that left Coinbase in the last 2 days.
Larry Ellison? A friend of Elon, big Tesla stake and definitely on the crazy side of executives plus a billionaire...
So far so good. Both levels tested, both held for now 💪🏻. Not advice
My read on #Fed press conference is broadly Bullish risky assets including #bitcoin. Points JP made that leads me to thsi conclusion:
- Unemployment rate understates problem as labor participation rate is lower
- Economy is 9.5m jobs below pre pandemic
- we will aim for inflation higher than 2% for some time
- We are looking for broad based and inclusive labor market improvement
- We won't taper asset purchases before economy has made "substantial progress towards max employment and inflation expectation firmly at 2%" ...
- We want to give notice WELL in advance of actual tapering of the asset purchases (meaning they won't just reduce them next meeting out of the blue)
- Talked down moving of rate projections of some slightly upwards in 2023 by reaffiriming stance on asset purchases and rates...
The thing with #crypto and #bitcoin is that right now practically everything that’s out there is built on the same “usecase” - speculation, casino and pyramid schemes (#Defi). So that is exceptionally vulnerable to Fed moves. However, there are now so many smart & motivated...
... people working in #crypto & on making the #blockchain a useful tool in our lives that betting against that innovation is now pretty poor risk reward. There are thousands of usecases that may or may not require a token, but they will be built:
- identity on chain makes identity theft impossible & where would you store it if not on the most decentralized one (ie $BTC)
- voting will be done on chain, instant results no fraud
- clearinghouses will disappear as the #blockchain replaces settlement (albeit a centralized one)
The fact #bitcoin isn‘t getting completely obliterated given Powell just basically said „Yes we still need to print now but before anything happens with inflation we‘ll hit the breaks hard“ is certainly a silver lining.
It will depend a lot on how markets read the Fed‘s communications tomorrow, when the dust settles, but in case they go with „ok it‘s confirmed, the Fed will be less expansive soon to avoid inflation“, I think $40k is totally doable here. #bitcoin $BTC
FWIW the likeliest outcome is investors decide tomorrow not so much changed after all & all those tech stocks seem quite a bit cheaper now.May see a good reaction in $BTC as well. Just definitely a warning:we‘re much closer to the end than the beginning & the end may have started
While #tether not immediately being wound up now, Yellen speaking negatively or Square buying definitely impacted price this week, there is a larger picture we should bear in mind & watch closely:
Due to other news in cryptoland, the larger macro picture (which, IMO was and is the main driver of #bitcoin since March 2020) has been a bit under the radar.
There are several future uses of the #bitcoin#blockchain, but it's current main use is vaccuuming up USD the Fed prints
$BTC is perfect for it. It is digital, fast (in comparison to Gold), very hypable and it has absolutely no intrinsic value yet without the speculation around it. So when the Fed started printing in response to #COVID, in order to prevent a new Great Depression, it rallied.
We can obviously continue to dip endlessly more and #bitcoin usually has a second shoe drop after the first one, but as I said about 1 hour ago, I do not personally believe the bull market is over and leverage desperately needed to be re-set. And it has.
#tether premium and leverage premium both went from $400 and more to negative so the initial speculative "excess" has been eliminated. I am good with being long now.
None of this is advice. I use low leverage and I do not invest more than what I am able to lose. DO NOT COPY.
These two tickers have been extremely helpful in understanding how to time dip buying and how long to stay short.
Article contains some more info. NEVER ADVICE:
#crypto is in a raging bull market because of the Fed. It‘s not because #Defi or $DOGE all of a sudden have any real use. #Yieldfarming is the definition of a pyramid scheme. Just want to disillusion you
Some interesting crypto uses today:
#bitcoin is indeed becoming a highly volatile investment product that institutions are looking at due to the abundance of liquidity. It remains to be seen what is left when the Fed ends QE. Also, $BTC can act as money in unfree societies which is really cool...
...#ethereum, with all its scalability issues (if you think using a network with $150 per tx will become mainstream once the Fed stops printing buy the proverbial bridge), is showing how #crypto can replace clearing houses, how applications can run decentrally, how tokenizing...
ICYMI The $GME ripple effect was so strong that clearing houses (those insitutions that ensure when two sides trade, both get the asset or the cash) were unable to deliver stocks for a short period of time. That is the reason they increased margins for brokers, which is...
... the reason that #RobinHood had to restrict trading (along with other brokers) as they could no longer afford the margins at clearers. This is the only reason trading was restricted. Regulators really not doing themselves a favor by repeating "will protect small investors"...
... all the time. This was a move that was necessary to protect the entire financial market from collapsing. Not more and not less. It was not an attack on small traders nor a support of HFs. It also did not stop the bleeding. FWIW professional investors were also unable to...
2/3 aller #Corona Toten kommen aus Pflegeheimen. 90% sind über 70 Jahre.
Seit Januar 2020 gibt es das Virus. Erst Januar 2021 (!) wurden FFP2 Masken und Schnelltests zur Pflicht in Pflegeheimen.
Immernoch gibt es keine Schnelltests für jedermann. Das Versagen ist enorm.
Statt Schnelltests breit anzubieten und jeden (!) durchführen zu lassen und die Menschen nicht mehr einzusperren machen wir #lockdown für alle für immer bis alle geimpft sind und wenn mutiert wird sperren wir eben #alternativlos alle wieder ein. Das ist so beschämend.
Man könnte 2/3 aller Toten (!) verhindern indem Schnelltests nur in Pflegeheimen ständig angewendet werden. Jeder kann sie durchführen, ich tue es privat seit 3 Monaten. Es ist unsagbar einfach. 100% Sicherheit gibt es nie, wir könnten ein normales leben führen. #covid#corona
The biggest #bubble of our lives:
- Retail makes prices at the margin by buying OTM calls on sh1t #stonks
- #Tether prints USD backed with #bitcoin and loans & it’s fine
- “It’s a software co” EV maker is larger than almost all #software companies
- Digital images sell for >$300k
- People now make videos explaining they don’t need to work jobs because they buy stonks when they go up
- $ETH is undervalued on basis of cashflows for transactions that token holders have zero claim on
- #Ripple dumping on you is fine because they have $XRP fans in Japan
- #Restaurants & Small #businesses go bankrupt because of #lockdown and slow gov’t help but it’s fine
- $HTZ tries to do a cap increase out of chapter 11 because #robinhood
- A Company does reverse stock split and people brag about gains on per stock price basis on social media
Let's hope this is what Paolo is trying to achieve... #bitcoin $BTC
Well done Paolo. Maybe we can be friends again 😉. #bitcoin $BTC
Almost made it back to $34k resistance. Really hope we can get past and leverage & tether premia would seem to allow that, but I am just going to be not so greedy and take a bit off here. Should improve leverage premium 🙈. Not advice. #bitcoin $BTC