DK 🇺🇦❤️ Profile picture
Entrepreneur, Investor & Hockey Player. #bitcoin & #crypto since '13. Opinions, never investment advice.
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Feb 11 4 tweets 1 min read
Been bashing the "it's priced in" talk recently... Here is what I really think:

I think short term bond markets have priced in all that's likely
I think long term bond markets are waiting to see impact on economy
I think stocks have not priced balance sheet reduction at all Obviously, not advice, though I'd fail to read what that advice would be anyways.
Feb 6 4 tweets 1 min read
I am on record stating that using $BTC as a national currency if you aren't using another country's one today is madness.

However, the dead end central banks are in (inflation too high, cannot raise rates much without causing debt crisis) is single most Bullish long term driver. You can only solve this kind of dilemma if you have the world's reserve currency (you simply forgive the debt to yourself), but the USD is shaky and the EUR certainly is not the world reserve OR you do a currency reform. The latter is much harder when a "hard" alternative exists.
Feb 4 4 tweets 2 min read
Today I was humbled by the markets. Trading has been an absolute grind these past weeks and I also slept way too little.

I had it all right last night and had I kept that position, I’d have brought my book almost back to end of 2020 levels. So far in January I managed to be down just about singe digits in a long-biased mandate, which is still good with markets -25 to 30% in crypto & basically tracking the Nasdaq with a crypto book, but last night I decided against my tweet setup above last minute and kept hedges on.
Jan 13 24 tweets 14 min read
I really love all the project we work with. Truly. But my favorite project in #crypto at the moment is doing its #IDO soon so I wanted to share a bit: Acumen Network @acumenofficial building on #solana.

A 🧵on why I like it so much and why I think it‘s just what #DeFi needs: 1/ Acumen has set out to use the power of #DeFi to bring #microfinance to underserved segments of the world, starting in El Salvador.

Microfinance means giving out very small loans to people who otherwise don’t have access to financing to start a business or keep it going.
Jan 12 4 tweets 1 min read
I think that this relief rally will give us Bearish re-tests across the board for $BTC ($46k, maaaaaybe $53k), $ETH ($3500, maaaaaybe $3800), $SOL (155, maaaaybe 167) and practically all other alts too. Not because the market is broken, but because I think... ... we've taken it far enough with useless coins that have only a "community" (aka apes mislead by marketing or influencers) and nothing else. So I think that should wash out before we can truly continue higher. Hedging my useful coins to a large degree with meme coins & scams...
Jan 8 5 tweets 2 min read
I think we look pretty bad, but I also think we are due relief. I know that‘s not helpful, but I kinda think after weekend shenanigans are over we follow tradfi again and I‘d be more inclined to lean relief rally than more doom. Not advice. Purely musings. $38-41k is most stacked area with bids on bitfinex. If we fall through that area I think we see a liquidation cascade to $30k. I think mid term it‘s 70% likely we test that liquidity again. But it also is the best chance for any bounce. If there is one.
Jan 5 6 tweets 1 min read
Sitting right at the bitfinex buy wall. We break through this and 42k looks pretty fast… not advice Image 42.55k was the last bitfinex buy wall before 40.5k, so I got a small bid filled at 42.65k… small. Very small. Not advice. Not even small advice
Jan 2 12 tweets 3 min read
2022 in crypto.

Pretty much every larger account that made a name trading is Bearish.

Funding is leaning negative (traders press shorts).

Everyone expects the Fed to kill the party & regulators to finish it off.

Everyone has learned crypto can only really rise if $BTC rises. I am not sure.

I know the Fed is fighting inflation and has historically always caused a recession in doing so successfully.

I also know $BTC behaves like digital gold and gold itself is a pretty stupid idea & only really works when liquidity expands.
Jan 1 15 tweets 4 min read
I am getting to a point where I cannot take #crypto haters seriously anymore:

- Coins with governance and revenue rights to a smart contracts aren’t scams. They are decentralized ownership aka equity
- It may seem absurd to have a start up valued at $100m fully-diluted but… … that’s the point - “fully” diluted implies there will not be future (stock) issuance, so this number compares to maybe 5m$ valuation of a classic equity start up that will raise multiple rounds issuing new stock in the future
- #tether was not backed in 2017 and…
Dec 30, 2021 14 tweets 4 min read
Assuming you have $SOL sitting somewhere and you do not wish to sell it, but want to hold it and maximize yield, here is one thing that currently works like an endless #yield loop:

1) Split the $SOL 50/50 into @MarinadeFinance and @SoceanFinance - liquid staking for 6.75% annual 2) take your $mSOL and $scnSOL (the token you receive in exchange for staking) and deposit them as collateral on @solendprotocol receiving additional 1.8% yield on those

3) borrow $SOL from solend, which is being subsidized with $SLND rewards and has a NEGATIVE borrow cost of 5%
Dec 25, 2021 5 tweets 3 min read
I have thought about it enough. Jack and friends dislike #web3 because it doesn’t have copyright protections (yet) and it threatens to break the decade old model of natural monopolies forming on the web once a firm has sufficient mass in an area. It is true that VCs get great deals in #crypto atm & it is also true some try to flip quickly. But it is also undeniably true that people who participate in #web3 own a far larger share of it than in the case of web2.0. Airdrops alone are often 4figs+ & you control your data.
Dec 18, 2021 5 tweets 1 min read
Picked up a number of under performing, high quality protocols along with some of the most strongest recently, hedged it with low quality stuff. I think we are at the point where things are so low sentiment-wise it’s difficult not to see a pop. Low qual hedges will help otherwise Too tired to provide more reasoning, but should echo my previous few posts
Dec 18, 2021 4 tweets 1 min read
#crypto is in FWIW I am in the latter category. I think both traditional markets and crypto need to shake off the fact liquidity will reduce, but the underlying drivers (economy, virus clean up, innovation) are going to win out at the end.
Dec 16, 2021 10 tweets 2 min read
Market musings:

So the Nasdaq Bearishly engulfed the Fed relief rally, which makes it look more and more like a short squeeze. The S&P wasn’t quite as bad, but the picture isn’t pretty for risk assets. Unless we turn around quickly, this could mean stocks are in for more pain. As I said before, I think that crypto as a whole has become a risk asset like all others, meaning that I find it hard to see that crypto rallies extensively but stocks don’t. So therefore unless stocks recover quickly my stance will be cautious.
Dec 10, 2021 6 tweets 2 min read
$ETH forming vomiting camel pattern.

No, really, this isn't pretty, neither on the weekly, nor the daily. Deviation up, back into channel, now sitting at the bottom of it... This isn't trivial support. This is quite an important level. Not sure it can hold, but we can pray. ImageImage Be sure to keep praying please. We‘ll need all of the gods.
Oct 27, 2021 9 tweets 2 min read
Still scared of the open interest, but realistically, this is no longer a super dangerous set up. Highly theoretical of course, but given supports around $58k & $4k that we'd all like to see held on weekly I guess it's as good a time as any to look at these favorably. Not advice. Image I dipped more than a toe this time. Keeping a pretty tight stop of course.
Oct 24, 2021 7 tweets 3 min read
So look. I think there are great things happening in #crypto.I think we have ways to go in terms of growth. I am not Bearish on this industry.

But when I look at all indicators I track, it seems pretty likely that we‘ll see a full on leverage flush sooner than later. Not advice. A) Leverage premium both in coin and $USDT margined futures is high
B) Funding (a result of A) is downright scary for some coins like $SOL and nowhere near neutral for any of them
C) $BTC Futures open interest was up the most in any 30 day rolling period before,then remained high
Sep 15, 2021 19 tweets 10 min read
Super busy today, but felt like I needed to put out a few thoughts on the #solana DDoS / downtime, how it was solved and what it means for $SOL & #DeFi

Firstly, I understand that what happened was that too many bots tried to claim/buy a token and spammed the network excessively. There was already a patch that was released to take care of situations like these, but it was not adopted fast enough.

To solve this, the validators decided that they would do a re-start of the network with the new patch and it was fascinating to be a live spectator on discord.
Sep 3, 2021 7 tweets 2 min read
So to be clear I think “all of the #crypto markets” are overheated short term as regards euphoria of holders and levered players. Usually that has produced a set back.

At the same time, I see $ETH, $BTC and $SOL all in very strong chart setups AND usage is absolutely up. Furthermore, I am being approached by reasonably sized institutions to get them up to speed on the asset class, so there is a strong backdrop.

Therefore I am cautious with leverage for this as I do expect a move up, but may see small airpockets down in between.Or even a wash out
Sep 1, 2021 10 tweets 4 min read
Short story:

There are all these promises of "you can make it with little $ in #crypto" and a ton of influencers charming in on the topic. A lot of that is scammers trying to get your money.

But it has to be said: it is absolutely f-ing true. Here is an example of a project: In January 2020 (1st post in the thread is from Feb 1st), I stumbled upon @0xmons $XMON token. I checked out the page and even though I wasn't into #NFTs at all, I thought the idea of AI generated pixel monsters is cool AND novel.
Aug 30, 2021 7 tweets 3 min read
In stocks, after the high quality names move, all the sh1t follows. $SOL has made its move.

Wonder if the sh1t will follow… Was thinking $DOGE, but, looking at the chart, maybe it‘s not sh1tcoin time yet. Looking at $ETH, I guess crazier things have happened than this breaking down, but seems to be one of the best set ups to be „Bullish at resistance“,so I‘ll bet a bit on this breaking up. NOT advice. Image