1/n This #thread will argue that a unique set of historical contingencies has obscured a looming problem for the #oil mkt, one which has been *delayed* by unprecedented events & interventions but not negated. We believe that in 6-8 wks the mkt will be subject to extreme turmoil /2 RECENCY BIAS: one can hardly read an article on oil w/out being told of crude’s supposed ‘weakness’ since last June’s highs, often accompanied by de rigueur chart crimes showing month-after-month of lower prices. These charts, of course, cherry-pick a ST price spike to make

1/n This thread will argue that the unique “triple-dip” nature of the 2014-2020 #Oil Bust has given #energy markets a false sense of security about the ability of #shale to meet any material Supply shortfall. It will also assess what this means for 2022-24. #OOTT #OPEC #Saudi /2 The explosive growth in US tight oil & gas production from ~2011-14 is not w/out historical precedent: the best analogue is perhaps the famous East TX field coming online circa 1930 & causing a (positive) supply shock just as the country entered the Depression. The comp is

1/n This thread will address some of the most frequent fallacies that are encountered in #energy investing.

While timing any commodity market is notoriously challenging, it is important to have guidelines & a basic framework of understanding.

#OOTT #EFT #Oil #shale /2 Myth: The transition away from #fossilfuels means that #Oil prices are permanently capped. Reality: oil is a depleting physical asset, with high capital intensity. When prices are high, producers expend significant time & capital exploring for oil & gas. When prices are low,