I was asked today "what does the future hold for #Afghanistan?"
Rather than hazard a prediction, I went back to two of Colin Powell's questions for intel analysts: What's known? And what's unknown? 1/n
In regards to what's known, I'll assume you're familiar w/events of the last week & won't rehash it all. Suffice to say, we know the govt is in *serious trouble*
2/n
We also know that, despite what else they may say, western countries have concluded the collapse of Kabul is at least possible, if not probable & imminent
3/n
apnews.com/article/joe-bi…
And we know that @JoeBiden has no regrets about the decision to complete the withdrawal by 31 August. 4/n
bbc.com/news/world-asi…
@JoeBiden What don't we know? Well, a lot. But here are some things that seem particularly pertinent from a "what happens next" perspective.
- Will the #ANDSF fight for Kabul?
- Will militias hold in Mazar-e-Sharif? Panjshir? The Hazarajat?
5/n
@JoeBiden - Will powerbrokers stay actively or tacitly aligned w/@ashrafghani?
- Will calls for a #LoyaJirgaNow to form a transitional government gain traction?
- Do the Taliban want to seize Kabul by force? How much do they really care about future int’l support?
6/n
@JoeBiden @ashrafghani What will regional countries--#China, #Russia, #Iran, #Pakistan, #India, Central Asian States--do now?
What about #alQaeda & #ISIS-K?
7/n
@JoeBiden @ashrafghani Colin Powell's 3rd question for intel analysts was, "Now, what do you think?"
I'm still formulating what I think based on the thread above. In the meantime, I welcome your thoughts in the replies👇 8/8
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