Thread by @JJSchroden

I was asked today "what does the future hold for #Afghanistan?"

Rather than hazard a prediction, I went back to two of Colin Powell's questions for intel analysts: What's known? And what's unknown? 1/n

In regards to what's known, I'll assume you're familiar w/events of the last week & won't rehash it all. Suffice to say, we know the govt is in *serious trouble*

2/n

We also know that, despite what else they may say, western countries have concluded the collapse of Kabul is at least possible, if not probable & imminent

3/n

apnews.com/article/joe-bi…

And we know that @JoeBiden has no regrets about the decision to complete the withdrawal by 31 August. 4/n

bbc.com/news/world-asi…

@JoeBiden What don't we know? Well, a lot. But here are some things that seem particularly pertinent from a "what happens next" perspective.

- Will the #ANDSF fight for Kabul?

- Will militias hold in Mazar-e-Sharif? Panjshir? The Hazarajat?

5/n

@JoeBiden - Will powerbrokers stay actively or tacitly aligned w/@ashrafghani?

- Will calls for a #LoyaJirgaNow to form a transitional government gain traction?

- Do the Taliban want to seize Kabul by force? How much do they really care about future int’l support?

6/n

@JoeBiden @ashrafghani What will regional countries--#China, #Russia, #Iran, #Pakistan, #India, Central Asian States--do now?

What about #alQaeda & #ISIS-K?

7/n

@JoeBiden @ashrafghani Colin Powell's 3rd question for intel analysts was, "Now, what do you think?"

I'm still formulating what I think based on the thread above. In the meantime, I welcome your thoughts in the replies👇 8/8