Thread by @quakes99

#USA/#EU rely on #Russia's oil to meet 8%/27% of demand.😯 A ban on Russian oil means finding alternate sources to fill gap & moderate price rise.🎢 #USA & #EU also rely on #Russia for 20% of #Nuclear fuel supply.😱 A thread for U on banning that👇 .../2 wsj.com/articles/biden…

2) Majority of US/EU imports of #Russia's #uranium is in Enriched Uranium(EUP) with Russia having 43% of global enrichment capacity.🇷🇺 If US/EU (or Russia) were to ban imports then first impact, I think, would be steep price rise for EUP, enrichment SWU & UF6 enricher feed⬆️ ../3

3) A US/EU ban on #Russia's #uranium would require alternate enrichment plants in #USA & #EU to increase output ASAP.🏭 They've been in low demand, running with excess SWU capacity that's led to underfeeding & large secondary U supply⛏️ to lessen the #Nuclear fuel deficit.⚛️.../4

4) New skyrocketed demand for #SWU enrichment & #UF6 feed to those enrichment facilities would, imho, drive Up #SWU & #UF6 prices.💲⬆️ Enrichers can't quickly add more enrichment capacity so instead would flip from underfeeding to overfeeding of #UF6 to get more EUP per SWU. ../5

5) Overfeeding involves feeding more #UF6 #uranium into centrifuges than provided by #Nuclear fuel buyer, so enricher will need to go to Spot market & elsewhere to buy extra UF6 needed, if available, spiking higher prices for UF6 & for conversion of #U3O8 to produce UF6.💲⬆️../6

7) Rising demand for #Uranium conversion services to produce more #UF6 would likely hasten restart of the ConverDyn Metropolis conversion plant in #USA & ramping up of other #U3O8 conversion facilities in #France & #Canada that have been operating well below capacity.⬆️⛏️ .../8

8) Finally, at front-end of #Nuclear fuel cycle, spike in immediate demand for #UF6 & #U3O8 conversion would force buyers into the Spot #Uranium market to buy up as much #U3O8 feed as possible🛒🚛 as there's little time for writing term contracts.⌛️ U Price & U #stocks soar🚀🌜🔚