Thread by @Ex_Trac

1. #IS deployed 342 attacks globally during Ramadan, 219 of them since 17 April as part of its global revenge campaign.

This is ten attacks more than it reported during Ramadan last year.

Here’s what that surge looks like when charted out.

2. Most attacks (by far) were reported from #Iraq, followed by #Nigeria, #Syria and #Afghanistan.

These four states accounted for three quarters of all #IS’s attacks in Ramadan.

3. Besides the sole attack reported from #Uzbekistan at the beginning of the month, no major new fronts were opened anywhere outside of #Nigeria.

4. From a targeting perspective, attacks on civilians increased significantly during Ramadan.

This was likely driven by operational exigencies – when looking to surge attacks, it’s easier to surge against targets that are typically softer.

5. Last month’s intensification also brought with it a significant surge in both official and unofficial comms activity.

This will likely decline in the coming days now we're out of Ramadan.

6. As we mentioned in an earlier update on the campaign, there has been a highly conspicuous silence from both #Mozambique and the #Sahel.

We’ll likely have retrospective Ramadan reporting from both in the foreseeable future.

7. But, in any case, in the coming weeks, #IS activities will likely drop back to “normal” levels in #Iraq, #Syria, and #Afghanistan.

#ISWAP, though, may well try to sustain itself outside of the #LCB beyond the end of this campaign.

8. Whatever happens, we’ll be continuing to track these dynamics closely.

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