Gonzalo Varela Profile picture
Trade and macro economist, policy-researcher, commentator, and failed squash star in Manila. Views expressed are mine, not my employer's.

Oct 27, 2022, 11 tweets

We have now 3 months of disaggregated #trade data for FY23 in #Pakistan. Visible deceleration both on #exports and #imports. Some key elements in 🧵below:

#Exports grew in Jul-Sep 23 versus Jul-Sep 22 by 5.3%. Slightly faster growth in #goods than in #services.

#Pakistan

By destination: in general, expansions, but contractions of shipments to #China, to #UK and to #UAE.

#exports #Pakistan

#Textile #exports still expanding but at substantially lower rates. Contractions in exports of base metals, chemicals and minerals.

#Pakistan

The data on month-to-month growth shows the #export deceleration more clearly:

#Pakistan

In #services, a concerning decline in #exports of #knowledge intensive services: telecom and business services.

#Pakistan

#Pakistan's #imports contracted by 3.9% (tho services imports expanded).

#China and #USA are the origins from which #imports have contracted the most.

And it's #imports of #machinery that have been contracting.

More visible in the monthly data...
#Pakistan #imports

In sum:
Deceleration in trade is associated with the deceleration in activity.
Restrictions to imports, particularly of #machinery and spare parts are a challenge for #exporters. /end

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