Gonzalo Varela Profile picture
Oct 27, 2022 11 tweets 10 min read Read on X
We have now 3 months of disaggregated #trade data for FY23 in #Pakistan. Visible deceleration both on #exports and #imports. Some key elements in 🧵below:
#Exports grew in Jul-Sep 23 versus Jul-Sep 22 by 5.3%. Slightly faster growth in #goods than in #services.

#Pakistan
By destination: in general, expansions, but contractions of shipments to #China, to #UK and to #UAE.

#exports #Pakistan
#Textile #exports still expanding but at substantially lower rates. Contractions in exports of base metals, chemicals and minerals.

#Pakistan
The data on month-to-month growth shows the #export deceleration more clearly:

#Pakistan
In #services, a concerning decline in #exports of #knowledge intensive services: telecom and business services.

#Pakistan
#Pakistan's #imports contracted by 3.9% (tho services imports expanded).
#China and #USA are the origins from which #imports have contracted the most.
And it's #imports of #machinery that have been contracting.
More visible in the monthly data...
#Pakistan #imports
In sum:
Deceleration in trade is associated with the deceleration in activity.
Restrictions to imports, particularly of #machinery and spare parts are a challenge for #exporters. /end

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More from @gonwei

Jul 2, 2023
Today's my last day in #Pakistan. So I'll close with a thread on #trade trends. With @StateBank_Pak data recently released for 11 out of 12 months of FY23.

Here's a summary: 🧵👇
1) Exports declined in July-May FY23 by 9.4% relative to same period of FY22. Largest contraction for #goods. Services exports actually expanded by 3.4%.
Role of restrictions to import inputs may explain the difference.
2) By destination: #exports to the top 5 markets fell during July-May FY23 (vs FY24), including USA, China, UK, Germany and UAE.
Read 12 tweets
Jan 25, 2023
. @StateBank_Pak has released disaggregated #trade data for #Pakistan, for the first half of FY23. Some analysis on main trends in 🧵👇👇
1) #Pakistan's #exports have declined in H1 FY23 relative to H1 FY22 by 4%. The fall is driven by goods #exports that fell by 5.8%. in million USD
2) By #destination, the largest #export contractions are observed to the USA, China, the UK and the UAE.
#Pakistan Image
Read 11 tweets
Jan 15, 2023
#Pakistan is going thru a complex #macro situation. At its heart is one symptom: the #CAD. Because the CAD has been perennial, this long-standing symptom translated into large foreign liabilities. Short 🧵👇
a) The #CAD shows that #Pakistan has been consuming beyond what it produces. At its heart, there’s another perennial deficit: the fiscal deficit.
b) To fix the #CAD, compressing #imports is futile (e.g. with the flood levy). You need either to reduce the fiscal deficit, or increase private saving well beyond investment. 👇
Read 10 tweets
Jan 13, 2023
In our latest #growth report for #Pakistan, we examined, among other themes, the role of #FDI in the country. How much #Pakistan attracts, how much it could attract, the impact on #productivity and on #jobs.

A short 🧵👇

openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/3…
1) #FDI is a useful source of financing for #developing countries. It is stable, and typically associated w/ #export growth, #job creation and #productivity upgrading. Does that all of that apply to #FDI in #Pakistan? Let's see...
2) #Pakistan's #FDI inflows/GDP (in green below) have been historically low and declining. Image
Read 11 tweets
Aug 4, 2022
Now we have dissaggregated @StateBank_Pak data on #Pakistan's #trade performance for the full of the FY22.

This thread will show performance in #values. not #volumes. Keep in mind FY22 was extraordinary in terms of high #prices, both for #imports and #exports. 👇👇👇🧵
1\ #Exports reached record highs, both #goods and #services, increasing by 26.6 and 17.1% respectively w.r.t. FY21. Good export prices and a decent #export response played a role here. Note: June 2022 is preliminary. Figures are Jul-Jun FY22 and
2\ #Pakistan #export growth was generalized by main destination. Particularly noticeable are increases in shipments to #USA and to #China - the two largest destinations.
Read 10 tweets
May 20, 2022
A month ago I wrote this 🧵 on why #import duties were not the answer to #Pakistan's Balance of Payments constraints. #ImportBans are certainly not the answer either. Rather, they exacerbate the underlying problem. Five thoughts. 🧵👇

1\ The usual: CAD results from a macro imbalance (Saving too low relative to investment, so foreign saving needed (borrowing) (CAD is the mirror image of borrowing from the rest of the world (financial account of BOP)). Fixing the CAD takes increasing saving (cool off demand).
2\ The #importban in #Pakistan reduces #imports (does it? see point 3\ below), but not the CAD, because it also reduces #exports.
profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2022/05/01/imp…
Read 8 tweets

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