Thread by @donnermaps

Today, a closer look at special elections as specials wind down. Part 1: Is the Democratic advantage in specials disappearing, after a huge bounce in winter? At first glance, it looks like it, but… 1/8

dailykos.com/stories/2018/6…

… it’s an illusion. After accounting for the types of districts holding elections, performance is pretty darn flat over the entire cycle. 2/8

What’s going on here? Democratic overperformance is concentrated in red states and districts that shifted red in 2016. And in April, we had 10 special elections drop in one of the bluest states of all, New York. 3/8

dailykos.com/stories/2018/4…

Part 2: There’s no need to wonder whether special elections or governor’s races are more predictive of November results, because both are telling us the same thing. 4/8

Again, Democratic overperformance is concentrated in red states and districts that shifted red in 2016. By these measures, the shifts we saw in NJ-Gov and VA-Gov were just about what they ought to have been. 5/8

Part 3: We return to the issue of turnout. While Dem overperformance may appear to be a function of turnout… 6/8

After accounting for, you guessed it, the concentration of Democratic overperformance in red states and districts that shifted red, any apparent trend evaporates. 7/8

And if you try to predict anything from said (not really real) apparent trend… you will probably be very wrong indeed. 8/8

dailykos.com/stories/2018/2…