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Andrew Goodman-Bacon @agoodmanbacon
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
The other #ASHEcon18 session in which I'm involved as more than just a discussant is, surprise, about diff-in-diff.
ashecon.confex.com/ashecon/2018/w…
I'll talk about my work on DD with variation in timing, which I'm eager to share very soon. I do a lot of stuff and am really excited to get comments from Michael Anderson, whose work continually introduces me to technical things I'd otherwise never tackle.
Then @ajhollingsworth gives a paper w/ Coady Wing on "Synthetic Control Using Lasso". If one were to do a synthetic control about how much I specifically learn from this, the answer will surely be "a lot". @jtkolstad a seasoned LASSO user discusses.
Finally, Scott Barkowski (who organized--thanks!) talks about DD models with a log outcome. You don't generally get common trends in levels when you have it in logs, so that can matter for how you interpret the parameters from the semilog regression. I humbly discuss.
We're late on Monday, but hope to see you in Salon V before dinner!
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Does your diff-in-diff treatment variable turn on at different times? Of course! Most of them do!

nber.org/papers/w25018

Very happy to share my paper showing how DD with variation in treatment timing works and what that means in theory and practice. 1/29
So…

Maybe there are untreated units and units treated at different times.

Maybe you ONLY have variation in timing (ie. everyone winds up treated).

Essentially your data look like this: 2/29
We add “two-way fixed effects” for units and times to our regression. But what comparisons actually get made in this case? Where did the elegant DD expression in terms of sample means go? 3/29
Read 30 tweets
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And industry has been doing this for a century.
Here's a physician group, the California League for the Conservation of the Public Health (academic.oup.com/jhmas/article/…) writing in 1918:
Worth noting that in the health insurance context it doesn't become "socialized medicine" until after WWII. Before that it's "too German" not "too socialist".
Read 3 tweets
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OK, a thread of weird graphics from historical reports that I like.
Not (Medicare) sure (could) what ("cover") the (us) subtext (all) here (you know) could (like) be (a blanket?!).
Here is a waterfall of faces in need and some plaintive Old Age Assistance recipients from 1960.
Read 14 tweets

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1/ I realized something earlier that may be obvious. For a long time in America we tribalized with our values. Different values, different tribes. But over the last 10 years we’ve started to conflate values and beliefs. And now our beliefs are tied to our identities.
2/ And this is really bad! Because while values are pretty static, beliefs should be changeable!
3/ A lot of polarization is because we are losing the ability - at a lizard brain level - to change our minds.

Our brains tell us we’re under threat and all of our friends will leave us if we change our minds on something.
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More than 4,000 people have been cut from Medicaid in Arkansas for not complying with the state's new work requirement, the first time that's been allowed since Congress created Medicaid in 1965 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The work requirement is the first to go into effect since the Trump administration opened the door for it in January

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
People have to report 80 hours a month of work or other activity (like volunteering). They have to use a website that...closes at 9 p.m. That's right. The website is closed for 10 hours for maintenance every night (70 hours a week).
Read 11 tweets
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Hi everyone I have some thoughts on this. #surprise
First and let's just get this out of the way, I'm against the City expanding North of 8 Mile Road and I will admit a large part of that is agricultural sentimentality. But there are other reasons I think reserving this land for a "transformative project" is dangerous.
Second. The area really isn't suited for the type of industrial development ala Tesla that would meet the major jobs generator criteria. The infrastructure for goods movement is much stronger in other parts of the City/County where freeway, freight, port, air access are better.
Read 13 tweets
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[Wątek] 1/ na szpagat @prezydentpl trzeba spojrzeć w szerszym kontekście. Prezydent zaniechał dwóch fundamentalnych czynności wprost przyznanych mu w jego ustawie o SN #SN
2/ pierwsza - prezydent powinien wydać postanowienie (art. 142 ust. 2 Konstytucji) stwierdzając przejście w stan spoczynku 10 sędziów. Tymczasem prezydent wysłał listy, w których pisze, że przeszli w stan spoczynku. List nie ma żadnego znaczenia, nie kreuje stanu prawnego.
3/ co ciekawe, listy wysłał również do tych sędziów, którzy powołali się na Konstytucję, wyrażając wolę dalszego urzędowania i nie dołączając zaświadczeń lekarskich. Co ciekawe, takiego listu nie wysłał do PSN Iwulskiego. Ten również stwierdził, że nie dołączy zaśw. lekarskiego.
Read 17 tweets
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The US is home to 5% of world’s women, and a whopping 30% of all incarcerated females in the world.

25 US states have higher incarceration rates than any other jurisdiction in the world–West Virginia has highest imprisonment rate on Earth, with 273 female prisoners per 100,000.
2. "Number of women in US detention facilities has increased exponentially. One of the issues that they face in a prison system geared toward men, is their treatment during pregnancy, limited access to healthcare and practice of shackling during birth." qz.com/553672/25-us-s…
3. More gobsmacking facts: “60% of women in local jails are not convicted, and more than a quarter of them have not yet had a trial.” newsweek.com/incarcerated-w…
Read 4 tweets
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Pour le régime de Maduro, tout opposant est un fasciste doublé d’un criminel.

Ça s’applique aussi à Luisa Ortega Díaz. #Thread
13 décembre 2007 — Luisa Ortega est nommée procureur général du Venezuela par l’assemblée nationale (sous Chávez, majorité PSUV).
Pendant presque 10 ans, c’est une des principales figures de la majorité chaviste, une fidèle parmi les fidèles jusqu’à ce que…
Read 13 tweets

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