1. In response to my @nytopinion piece with @jamesonmcb advocating a national clean energy standard, I got multiple questions on why it might be more likely to pass Congress than a carbon tax. Herewith, a theory:
2. Fossils are increasingly worried about climate lawsuits, so much they are spending money to gin up an Astroturfy campaign pushing Congress to exempt them from liability. They are willing to trade a low carbon price for relief, but getting few takers among Rs on Hill.
3. Suppose a big court decision goes against them. Juliana vs. U.S. case is most likely, judge has already written hugely favorable opinion toward kid-plaintiffs. Now fossils really worried. They put screws to their bought-off R and D politicians on Hill.
4. R leadership rolls over for fossils, but many rabble-rouser Rs still opposed to giving the climate movement anything. Policy cannot pass without votes from Ds, who see a chance to get a real climate bill. Rs and Ds talk turkey. (Imagining this is next year, election over.)
5. Fossils try to get weakest possible bill in exchange for liability waiver, but honest Ds and even a few Rs hold firm. Serious clean energy standard emerges as easiest path to House majority, 60 votes in Senate. More palatable to Rs than carbon tax.
6. For advocates, trick becomes getting enough policy juice in exchange for the liability waiver. Huge role there for greens, honest Ds. Principled conservatives argue for adding market mechanisms including trading among states. Good argument.
7. Sausage gets made. Fossils put screws on Trump to sign bill. Not about him so he doesn't really give a damn, signs it.
8. Am I saying this scenario is particularly likely? No. Do I think it's a more plausible scenario than getting any version of a carbon tax through the Hill? I do.
9. One implication of theory: lawsuits=hugely important. Starting to work, by undermining social license of fossils. Mark Carney predicted this few short years ago, and it's happening pretty fast.
10. One advocacy focus needs to be getting *many* more states, cities, counties to sue fossils. Fossil execs need to be tied up every day in discovery, motions, testimony. Their lives need to be made a living hell, until they go crawling to Congress for climate policy. /END
