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Sam Lowe @SamuelMarcLowe
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
The UK's slides on post-Brexit financial services has led to some Qs about the EU-Japan free trade agreement. While it does include text on regulatory cooperation in financial regs (which is focus of slides), re: market access, it offers v little beyond standard WTO commitments.
Also, in case you're interested in the difference between providing legal services cross-border within the EU vs outside, under an FTA, using EU-Japan provisions as the base-case (rough; very much a draft):
Despite the EU single market in services apparently "not existing" (People who should know better, 2017-2018) it's actually pretty useful at times.
The people asked for mode 4, so they shall get mode 4.

Provisions within EU vs EU-Japan economic partnership agreement for legal services (again, work in progress):
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I often find myself thinking about the claim that UK food prices will fall post-Brexit so long as the UK removes the existing EU tariffs on food imports (which can be quite high) either unilaterally or via new free trade agreements.

I'm sceptical, for a few reasons.
The first being that vast majority of our imported food comes from EU. Even if we unilaterally dropped tariffs on all imported food, we would still import a lot of food from the EU. EU food will be more expensive than now, if only because of new bureaucracy (ignoring tariffs).
Second, currency.

The IFS estimate that unilateral tariff removal could reduce household prices about 0.7–1.2%. This benefit has already been negated by a ~2% depreciation in sterling post-referendum.

ifs.org.uk/uploads/public…
Read 8 tweets
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Day 4 without a working boiler. I am starting to get cold.
Fair point.
Fixed! And I now have the number of a great gas engineer for any North Londoners in need. (Diagnosed and fixed it in 30 minutes compared to a 3 hour failed attempt by cowboys on NY eve).
Read 4 tweets
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Tariffs not biggest issue for British food exporters to EU, bigger issue is delays at the border and additional bureaucracy.

For example, milk for human consumption must enter EU via inspection post where 100% shipments subject to identity & doc checks; 50% physical inspection.
Because twitter, I’ve had a few “well that’s not a problem because we don’t export much milk” responses despite me saying it was just an example.

Here’s a product by product breakdown of checks and frequency UK products of animal origin would face if no deal.
The physical inspection rate can be reduced if the UK and EU reach an equivalence arrangement but this doesn’t remove need for document and identity checks nor for products to enter EU via a veterinary border inspection post. Anyway, it’s all in here: apha.defra.gov.uk/documents/bip/…
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Related threads

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What has @wikileaks has taught and shown us about the negotiation of secret #trade​ ​agreements? A thread. Add information you've found to be in the public interest that whistleblowers have trusted to the #WikiLeaks archive. #WikiLeaksIsAPublisher #Assange #SubstanceOverSmea​r
ACTA, the "Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement", was ultimately rejected. ​T​he agreement was an attempt to create a new global standard for intellectual property rights enforcement. wikileaks.org/wiki/Proposed_…
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1. There are plenty of #Brexit threads kicking around now on why the WTO option is bad. Unless you live in a cave or have the IQ of a halibut, you should by now have grasped the concept of what it means to be a third country and why that is ruinous for UK exporters.
2. You'll note that in the seventeen billion threads I've written on the subject that I seldom make reference to tariffs - because tariffs for the most part are neither here nor there. This is fundamentally about regulatory barriers where again the cave/halibut question kicks in.
3. Without full regulatory harmonisation there will be inspections, standard third country controls will kick in and there are no WTO rules that compel the EU to relax them and certainly not for the sole benefit of the UK. This is why we need a comprehensive agreement with the EU
Read 20 tweets
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German foreign minister @HeikoMaas: "Germany and Japan can become the core of an alliance of multilateralists."
Among the challenges Maas mentions: "China wants to change the geopolitical balance of power to its favor and demands in its neighborhood something I call allegiance (Gefolgschaft)".
"Our countries are too small to set the tone in the concert of global powers. That's why in these times we have to think about new ways."

"We need a close German-Japanese cooperation (Schulterschluss)"
Read 9 tweets
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We’re (10 UK small scale fishermen) here @FishmongersHall at the #FishingInTransition @TheJerryPercy @CreelScff @Bluemarinef @AdrianGahan @SamuelMarcLowe @CER_Grant @CRHClover @Bluemarinef @law_rich @Erin_Priddle @NFFO_UK @SWFPA
We’re here to hear what are the real deal prospects & real world impacts for all UK #FisheriesInTransition rather than any political or media spin about it.
EU official told him early on in #Brexit negotiations, “You [UK] have no cards, except fish.”
Read 100 tweets
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#Brexit 1
Cadbury moved factory 2 Poland 2011 with EU grant.
Ford Transit moved 2Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover recently agreed 2 build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, same company who trashed our steel industry & emptied workers pension funds.
#Brexit 2
Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.
British Army's new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN using SWEDISH steel at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, rather than Wales.
#Brexit 3
Dyson gone 2 Malaysia, with EU loan. Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone 2Poland with EU grant,employed 1,200.
M&S manufacturing gone 2far east with EU loan.
Hornby models gone. In fact all toys & models gone from UK along with patents all with EU grants
Read 28 tweets
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1/ Thread: Here are my 12 thoughts on #Brexit. We are at half-time in Art50 process. Departure UK from EU now exactly 12m away. Right moment to take stock and list a few backward- and forward-looking thoughts. (You can also read the full blog-post here: delorsinstitut.de/en/all-publica…)
#1: When the UK voted leave, many said the EU would be weakened. Today it is clear that the contrary is true: it’s the UK not the EU that has been weakened by Brexit.
#2a Whatever people say, it would have been possible for Britain to change its mind about Brexit. Many political decisions, even after referenda, have been reversed in many countries.
Read 18 tweets

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