1. On September 13, 1993, newly arrived in Washington fresh out of graduate school, I encountered the signing of the Oslo Accords with two distinctly different reactions.
2. One side of my brain was thrilled. The public policy issue that most animated me was seeking an end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which I had understood for several years could only be achieved in a two-state solution. At last, the dream could be realized!
3. The other side of my brain nursed personal, selfish disappointment. I came to DC to work on making MiE peace, and before I could get started, the job was basically over. I'm too late, I thought. I'll have to busy myself with other areas of foreign policy, maybe learn Chinese.
4. A nobody, I had no seat at the ceremony. I flitted between these thoughts while stealing glimpses of the delegates at their hotels, viewing the signing on TV, &writing an article based on interviews with some of the negotiators. Still, the DC air seemed pregnant w/possibility.
5. It all looks very naive from this vantage point. The struggles and failures of successive efforts to negotiate the peace dangled in Oslo have contributed to my 25-year career engaged in the pursuit. But I'd have happily given it up for success up front.
6. Oslo didn't succeed for many reasons: Waves of Palestinian terror, incitement, &rejectionism; Israeli settlement expansion beyond what land swaps could accommodate; Hamas terrorists seizing Gaza; many leadership failures; Rabin's assassination. One can add many US mistakes.
7. And yet, it is with us still. The Palestinian Authority in Ramallah is a product of Oslo. For all its weakness, neither Israelis nor Palestinians have wanted to dismantle it, & PA security forces are effective, professional partners w/Israeli security organs to prevent terror.
8. If leaders emerge who genuinely seek a conflict ending agreement in all its parts (2 states on 67 lines+swaps; Pal recog of Isr as Jewish state; extensive security plans; Pal refugees to the Pal state, not Isr; 2 capitals in J'm) they'd likely start with a structure like Oslo.
9. Some say 2states is dead, & it may be. All alternatives are worse, leading to perpetual conflict, no or limited rights for Palestinians, Israel w/its Jewish &democratic character in conflict. The most likely is long-term status quo: deceptive, because it won't remain static.
10. But on a day when some of us must concede our optimism was misplaced, &those who predicted doom can say they called it right, I still tip my hat those who tried, &won't relinquish hope that against all odds, a new attempt, incorporating all the lessons learned, might succeed.
11. End
