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Michael Otsuka @MikeOtsuka
, 3 tweets, 5 min read Read on Twitter
A new blog post, in which I argue for the importance of acceptance IN FULL by union and employer of the proposals of the Joint Expert Panel on #USS.
medium.com/@mikeotsuka/uc…
👆Tagging @JoanneSegars @SallyBridgeland @ucu @UniversitiesUK @colette147 @AlistairJarvis @Sam_Marsh101 @Flibitygibity @carlomorelliUCU @Dennis_Leech @DaveGuppy @RedActuary @Derek_Benstead @kevinwesbroom @USSbriefs @OpenUPP2018 @JosephineCumbo @henryhtapper
If you think it might be useful for members to consider this case, I hope you’ll retweet the above link to my blog post.
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#USS

More from @MikeOtsuka see all

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In their new valuation #USS continues to make a "large and demonstrable mistake" in applying Test 1, which they now ineptly try to explain away by contradicting past statements (see embedded thread). 1/
JEP has made a strong case for funding existing DB & DC benefits at a lower contribution level than USS is calling for. 2/
But the regulator (tPR) is calling for an even more conservative valuation than the one #USS issued last week. 3/
Read 19 tweets
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#USS provides blinkered, inaccurate, exaggerated measures of risk in their consultation document, all three of which are tied to the gilt yield. More comments below. 1/
The first (see 5.4.1) is their measure of 'long term risk' in terms of their infamous Test 1 gap to 'self-sufficiency' in 20 year's time. Self-sufficiency is a gilts+0.75 portfolio. 2/
As I explain in this thread, it's only when they rewrite history by contradicting past statements that they are able to show a need to 'de-risk' into bonds in order to meet this test. 3/
Read 19 tweets
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🚨🚨🚨#USS contradicts itself in its latest attempt to answer the critique arising from @Sam_Marsh101's findings regarding expected asset level 20 years hence. See the following highlighted passage from p. 12 of the consultation document on the 2018 valuation: 1/
This parenthetical claim is an attempt to deny that they ever assumed that col 1 row 1 would equal col 2 row 1 in @Sam_Marsh101 graph below. 2/
But the record shows that #USS previously identified the target path as the expected path. See this highlighted statement from the transcript of @GuyCoughlan's video of May 2018: 3/
Read 12 tweets

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UPDATE on 2017 #USS valuation.

Universities UK has told me:
“Employers support the JEP’s recommendations, subject to acceptance from the USS Trustee and The Pensions Regulator, and to further information for employers on risk and its implications.”

1/
#UUK: ”We look forward to discussions with UCU, and with the USS Trustee, over the coming weeks as we seek a jointly agreed solution.”
2/2
#UUK has further clarified that employers support “all of the recommendations put forward by the panel” – subject to the conditions outlined in earlier tweeted statement.
Read 14 tweets
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#USS has sent a further statement responding to questions on their statement this morning. USS was asked whether the figures, released to @Sam_Marsh101 last week, were also shared with the Joint Expert Panel and where they found errors with his analysis.

Response to follow:

1/
USS: "We provided all of the information and analysis that was requested by the Joint Expert Panel. Given that it ignores downside risk, the approach Dr Marsh looks to support by using asset projections alone is not applicable in the context of USS.

2/
USS: As such, it was not requested by - or provided to - the JEP or employers. It is not as fundamental to the valuation approach as Dr Marsh seems to believe or as recent commentary would suggest.

3/
Read 12 tweets
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Reading fhrough the Joint Expert Panel report and it is quite bruising for the #USS, #UUK and Pensions Regulator.

Key comments from the Executive Summary of the JEP report to follow:
Firstly, on the Trustees’ use of 3 tests to help assess contribution affordability. The Panel thought the Trustees gave “too much weight” to “Test 1” which was not being used as a “stop and check” reference point but “constraint” on benefit design and investment strategy. 1/
The Panel said that “insufficient weight” was given to the fact that USS was a large, open scheme that was cash flow positive. The “strength and diversity” of the HE sector appeared not to have been taken into account “in some areas”. 2/
Read 17 tweets
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We at @USSbriefs HQ have spent lots of weekends & evenings getting our first briefs ready for OpenUPP. Our efforts to Open Up the #USS Joint Expert Panel start for real today, as we challenge the epistemic landscape of #USS #pensions dispute ussbriefs.com/openupp2018/ #USSstrike 1/ screen shot of press release linked to in tweetscreen shot of press release linked to in tweet
Our first #OpenUPP2018 brief is 'Opening up the USS Joint Expert Panel', by me. I explain why we at @USSbriefs are so committed to Opening Up the #JEP, & provide thumbnail reflections on the 7 people who make up that closed panel medium.com/ussbriefs/open… 2/
Our second #OpenUPP2018 brief is an 'Open Letter from Academics for Pensions Justice' (@ForPension) which demands that #USS provides full disclosure of data, assumptions & the modelling approach underpinning the 2017 valuation to JEP medium.com/ussbriefs/open… #USSbriefs26 3/
Read 4 tweets
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IMPORTANT #USS UPDATE! Friday saw two big decisions made with big implications for the future of USS. One took place at UCU's HEC, the other at the UCU/UUK Joint Negotiating Committee. You need to be aware of what happened at both! READ ON... 1/ @JosephineCumbo @jgro_the
SECOND MEETING FIRST: the JNC agreed (yes, agreed!) to formally revoke the January imposition of a defined contribution scheme. This is an important moment! DC is gone, and not coming back. This makes concrete previous loose pledges from @AlistairJarvis & UUK. 2/
It is expected that #USS will now prepare to implement 'cost-sharing' to start in April 2019. This will leave benefits unchanged (at least up to the DC threshold), but will mean big contribution rises. See thread by @MikeOtsuka: 3/
Read 14 tweets
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After a week of exploring the role of consultancies in shaping the shift to DC benefits in #USS pensions with @felicitycallard and @CLIVEYB , this week I am delighted to announce the launch of the new "Picket Pensions Consultancy" (#PicketPC ) #ucustrike #usstrike
Anyone who needs a quick recap on how consultancies shape landscapes and appetites for risk might want to check in with the archiving of this thread by pensions expert @henryhtapper henrytapper.com/2018/03/08/the… #uss #ucustrike see also #ucustrike #usstrike
If you want a longer academic read on how consultancies are contributing to reshaping the direction of financial innovation around universities, and why this matters, you can can explore the synthesis of @CLIVEYB #ucustrike #usstrike
Read 10 tweets

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