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Musso @Musso___
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Articolone del mitico HWS sulla FAZ. Titolo incoraggiante : <la Tragedia italiana>. Svolgimento : <i trasferimenti ed il credito a basso costo, hanno distrutto la competitività dell’Italia. Trattenere il Paese dall’#UscITA sarà costoso>

HWS : <The EU Commission is now suddenly upset for a deficit ratio of 2.4pc, for the mere reason that new eurosceptic parties have emerged as competitors to the old establishment in Italy. One wants to make an example of them and now>

👉 MoscoWC🤡
HWS : <The Eu Commission could impose heavy fines. Italy does not want to pay these penalties, but seeks out the open conflict😎. An amicable solution is no longer desired. Italy's government was elected to take more radical😎 steps>
HWS : <From 1995 until the Lehman crisis, Italy, including an initial lira appreciation against Germany, has become around 40pc👈 more expensive ... No country can survive such a gigantic "real appreciation" without damage>
HWS : <after the Lehman bankruptcy, the supposedly good time was over, and Italy came under the wheels. The loss of competitiveness came out relentlessly
🔹Unemployment rose to 12pc
🔹youth unemployment temporarily above 40pc
🔹quarter of the manufacturing industry was gone>
HWS : <Understandable that the nerves of the Italians today are blank and they want to know nothing more about the EU: only 43pc of them want to stay in the EU, less than anywhere else in the EU>
HWS : <no southern European country has managed to bring its industrial production back up to the level reached at the beginning of the financial crisis>
🔹<Berlusconi, @LBiniSmaghi reports, conducted secret negotiations on the withdrawal of Italy from the ez in 2011
🔹Greek Prime Minister Papandreou did the same ...
👉they were forced by the banks and relevant EU forces to give up their posts before implementing it>
HWS : <In Italy, the subsequent Prime Ministers @SenatoreMonti , @EnricoLetta , @matteorenzi and @PaoloGentiloni tried to reform, but they achieved little to nothing🚨 - at least nothing that could have turned the tables for the Italian industry>
HWS : <European policy did not rely on structural reforms of the Eurosystem during the crisis, but on financial bailouts, because such actions also helped banks and investors from France, Germany and other countries>
HWS : <All of these programs
🔹have prevented losses for investors in France and Northern Europe and made life in the South more bearable, but at the same time
🔹they hurt Italy's industry👈 because they supported the pre-Lehman excessive wages compared to productivity>
HWS : <Anyone who thinks that Italy's new current account surplus proves that the country is already out of the woods, overlooks that this surplus came about almost solely because of the crisis-related collapse of imports and the interest rate cuts on foreign debt>
HWS : <There are now only four options
1️⃣The first is to sneak into a transfer union ... That would make all Italy to what the Mezzogiorno is today: an overpriced transfer recipient who never again becomes competitive and must be permanently supplied from outside ...
... Europe can not afford it, because ... it must become economically stronger rather than weaker. Nevertheless ... the French gvt insists for a common deposit insurance for banks, a joint unemployment insurance, a euro budget>

2️⃣<The second way is ... wage cuts. This is chemotherapy🤦🏻‍♂️ for the economy, which could drive the patient to despair💁🏻‍♂️ ... Till now, Italy has not done anything at all. Since 2007, the price level of its own goods has grown at the same speed as that of its competitors in the ez>
3️⃣<The third way is more inflation in the north. Italy's real appreciation on Germany since 1995 is 39pc. To compensate, Germany would have to inflate by 2pc a year faster than Italy for 16 years
👉Italians could not stand it, and
👉German savers would go to the barricades>
4️⃣<The fourth consists in a temporary😆 exit😎 of Italy from the euro according to Schäuble's plan😍 for Greece, in summer 2015, which was then informally approved💣💥 by 15 finance ministers from the Ecofin>

👉Dedicato a tutti quelli che ancora credono ci vogliamo dentro😎
🔹<capital flight would have to be face with capital controls😎
🔹economy would pick up very quickly😎
🔹domestic credit relationships would remain in equilibrium😎 because they would be devalued
🔹even some foreign debt could be turned into lira and devalued>
HWS : <But that would hit France's banks, which are about three and a half times more exposed in Italy than the German ones> 😏👇
HWS : <Politically, this step would also equate to a declaration of bankruptcy😎 of the leading politicians of Europe. And the capital markets would be in considerable turbulence>
HWS : <The Eurozone has landed in a dead end😎
Italy's new gvt😎 knows it. It categorically excludes2️⃣ and realistically can not be expected to succeed in 3️⃣. It therefore concentrates first on 1️⃣ and holds 4️⃣ more or less clearly as threat potential in the back>
HWS : <The spokesman for the Lega, the economist @borghi_claudio , has stated that his party wants to introduce #minibot ...
Since they are already introduced before the exit, they are already there, if on a weekend quite suddenly the currency conversion is imposed ...
... All bank accounts, all employment and leasing contracts and all internal credit contracts are retained, except that the symbol of the euro is replaced by that if the Lira>
HWS : <Savona wants to convert into Lira also the public debt issued before 2012. That's still three quarters of all outstanding papers today>

👉Vabbè, qui si legge male la annosa questione delle CAC. In effetti convertiremo il 100pc dei Btp emessi sotto la legge italiana.
HWS : <The #Target2 debts of Banca d'Italia to the Eurosystem are to be canceled. This could even happen, as
🔹there is no legal basis for their settlement after a euro exit and as
🔹leading German politicians have long termed them as "irrelevant clearing balances" anyway>
HWS conclude, caustico :
🔹<Of course, everything should be kept secret until the last second in order to prevent a flight of capital

🔹Europe will have to give Italy a lot of money to avert all that

🔹Either way, the next act of Italian tragedy begins>
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