1. Quick thoughts on what's happening in France, after I've been out this morning watching gilets jaunes in Paris. Purchasing power has long been a bigger problem in France than in other western countries/
2. Lots of people are on the national minimum wage (about 14,900 euros a year) and many more cluster around the median wage of about 22,000 gross, with charges to pay. So the French have their health, education and pensions mostly taken care of but have little disposable income
3. Coupled with this is huge personal dislike of Macron - more of the man than of his policies. (He was able to do the labour-market reforms that no president had dared for 20 years with fairly little opposition)
4. And this relatively poor country has a capital city that has been dripping with wealth for centuries - so the shops in Paris are a provocative sight to most French people. So is the de facto royal court of elite Parisians that assembles around every French president
5. BUT let's not exaggerate the level of turmoil in France. Two weeks ago, there were more people at the (barely reported) women's march in Paris than the 8,000 gilets jaunes who demonstrated the same day
6. The international attention took off after the violence on the Champs-Elysees last week. Spectacular images of fires, fights, tear gas. But that was done by a minority of 'casseurs' (literally: 'breakers'), violent anarchists who are part of the French tradition
7. There's some overlap between the casseurs and gilets jaunes but latter group is much larger. Yet the violence suggested a country in revolution - which France is not (e.g. my son just went off with his mates through the peaceful city to his football match in the suburbs)
8. Most French people say in surveys that they support the 'gilets jaunes'. But what does it mean to 'support' an amorphous movement with no clear goals beyond wanting more purchasing power and disliking Macron? This sounds like a general expression of discontent
9. Conclusion: big, long-lasting problem of purchasing power, personal dislike of Macron, persistent French discontent for over a decade now. But last weekend's images of violence (which play beautifully on TV) exaggerate the level of disorder in France. No revolution
10. No revolution: 8,000 gilets jaunes demonstrators in Paris today, according to government. Also 8,000 police officers (via @stefandevries)
