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Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Hint: Denuclearization does not mean North Korea’s disarmament. (1/3)
We’ve been over this already. Denuclearization is North Korea’s phrase, not ours, and it is mostly about *our* nuclear weapons, threats, etc. (2/3)
nytimes.com/2018/04/04/opi…
What the US has sought, in the past, is the complete, verifiable and irreversible *dismantlement* of North Korea’s nuclear programs. North Korea demanded the US stop using that phrase — and @SecPompeo gave in. (3/3)
(Update) KCNA has released a commentary that makes the same point.
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#GBSD
D5
Not certain about rail-basing in an urban environment.
Read 4 tweets
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This is a big fucking deal.
And suddenly this tweet, and the Mattis resignation letter, look very different.
Per @YonhapNews, Seoul interpreted the tweet as a shot at Moon. Kim Jong Un must be delighted.
Read 3 tweets
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Why am I skeptical of this diplomacy with North Korea? Because nothing is in writing. For example, let's turn around this statement by Mattis. How would Trump feel if North Korea "reorganized" its missile launches to keep them "at a level that will not be harmful to diplomacy"?
What level is that exactly? You have to ask the North Koreans. And since they will likely disagree among themselves, one must write things down -- not only for clarity between the two sides, but also to ensure any agreement survives internal politics in Washington and Pyongyang.
Maybe we'll get away with a mini-Foal Eagle. But this entire diplomatic endeavor is premised on the misguided belief that Trump can fake his way to a stable, peaceful relationship without doing any of the actual work. Good luck with that.
Read 3 tweets

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What has @wikileaks has taught and shown us about ​#nuclear issues? A thread. Add info you've found to be in the public interest that whistleblowers have trusted to the​ global #WikiLeaks archive #WikiLeaksIsAPublisher​​ #Assange #SubstanceOverSmear
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Trump: Day 589
-152nd Day at Trump Golf Club
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Read 49 tweets
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So there is just an incredible amount of wrong in this article that it really takes a minute to figure out where to start unpacking it.
I think this section in particular explains why we get such an objectively bad take: there are some really flawed assumptions and understandings of history at play here.
1) This is an enormous “post hoc, ergo propter hoc” argument. Yes, the per capita death rates in warfare went down post-1945. Dramatically so. This is a common meme, and one that just won’t die. It even appeared in the most recent Nuclear Posture Review.
Read 24 tweets
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1. This is the story of how the U.S. & other nuclear-armed nations try and fail to keep nuclear weapons out of the hands of weak nations that need them — including ones vulnerable to attack by the U.S.
2. In Quentin Tarantino’s film, “Inglourious Basterds,” a German SS officer arrives without warning at a French family’s modest dairy farm. The year is 1940, the first year of the Nazi occupation.
2. The officer is accompanied by several heavily-armed men and is exceedingly polite. He asks the French farmer if he can come inside. The farmer, with his young daughters hovering nearby, allows him to enter.
Read 79 tweets
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OK, so I guess I have to say something about my earlier tweet about the president and #nuclear weapons. I do not mean that I think the president will use nuclear weapons while he’s in the middle of rage tweeting. (As always, this is my personal view.) /1
Rather, I think it is important to remind the Trump supporters, constantly, that they elected someone whose job includes more than just triggering the libs. If Hillary or Obama were talking this way, Trump fans would have argued for committing them involuntarily. /2
I especially want Trump voters and GOP congressman to keep in their minds — again, constantly — that this president, like any POTUS, could be placed under immense emotional stress in a crisis at some point that *might not be about him* and on which our survival might depend. /3
Read 6 tweets
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DIEGO GARCIA, 1966-PRESENT:

“Establishing a marine reserve might...be the most effective way to prevent any of the Chagos from resettling.”
In the 18th century, Africans were enslaved & shipped to work on Mauritian coconut plantations—the first settlers in the Chagos Archipelago.
Post-emancipation, the British colony led the way in universal employment and other social benefits, mostly unknown to the colonial world.
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