Thread by @oarhtanirs

2 friends one in mid 30's (F1) and another in mid 40s (F2) met up after almost a decade.. after sometime the conversation was about politics and slowly they were up n about discussing the situation over past 5 yrs..

The conversation went as thus -

1/n

F1: hey have u seen the way India has zoomed back into the top 5 economies of the world?
F2: yes, I heard that. Infact they r on the verge of moving into 4th spot pretty soon n into 3rd spot in next 5 yrs or so if the same level of pace continues

2/n

F1: isn't it shame that it took us so long to get there while many other countries smaller than us that got freedom at about same time as us have zoomed past us
F2: yes that's true but we had our own challenges and in any case let bygones be bygones
F1: yes I agree

3/n

F1: yaar u have seen India for almost a decade more than I have so in your opinion what according to u has been the differentiating factor in the last 5 yrs
F2: bhai i finished my graduation around the time that India was opening up its markets for the world.

4/n

Those wer tough times bt v sailed thru n created a market for the world. tht ensured jobs wer created & economy started 2 rattle on. thse 5 yrs wer seeds bng sown & aftr few yrs of uncertainty v again got a govt tht was willin 2 continue reforms tht wer strted in early 90s..
5/n

from 1998 to 2004 we saw massive spending on infrastructure as we built the golden quadrilateral connecting 4 metro cities worth 6500 kms long.. if u haven't driven on those roads I seriously recommend u do that as it's an awesome experience.

6/n

v wer growin at 8-9% annually & had all things gng for us 2 leap 2 nxt level but as luck would had it the govt fell..
The period frm 2004-14 was darkest for Indian economy with the entire tenure filled with scams n uncertainty.
7/n

Inflation was at its peak, economy was crawling and the only bright spot that I personally felt in that period was the rise of the Indian cricket as they started to win matches overseas n most importantly won the 2 major world cups T20 n ICC

8/n

Then came 2014 n Indians collectively elected Modi as PM. He had an uphill task to 1st undo the mess of the past 10 yrs n in some cases of past 60 yrs & then carry out reforms to set a platform for the economy..
9/n

in my entire life of 45 yrs I hv nt seen a politician work as hard as Modi has for his people & for me most striking diff in him ws tht in his speeches or interactions he nvr evr mentioned words caste creed religion etc which we r habituated to hear from our politicians..
10/n

also he hasnt shied away frm carrying out reforms tht could hurt him politically or seemed impossible 2 achieve. he always does what is right thing 2 b done for economy n welfare of ppl.
11/n

Yes sometimes they do bring short term pains but over course of time they do benefit ppl but then isn't the 1st few months of a new born also cumbersome to deal with but once that is dealt with the coming years r full of joy for the family n ppl around that child..
12/n

F1: I agree with that but do u think ppl at large understand about it?
F2: some ppl understand it n accept it while some ppl understand it but dont accept it.. they have to be told about it again n again
13/n

F1: see Modi woke up 1 fine evening n announced that 86% of cash wont b legal tender from the next 4 hrs.. was he insane to do it? Did he not think of the repurcussions it would have on ppl? How heartless a decision was it?? Is this what u call reforms?

14/n

F2: see demonetization was not done for the sake of it. If u want to understand why it was necessary n what wold had happened had we not done it then pls listen to this speech from Mr S Gurumurthy renowned CA, political & Economic analyst


15/n

In any case why should just 2 denominations (that too higher ones) be allowed to become 86% of the cash economy?? Doesnt it make it easy to hoard huge amounts of cash using those denominations??
F1: yes it does..

16/n

F2: demon wasnt meant 2 reduce/eliminate cash frm system but 2 reduce content of higher denominations in overall cash. within an yr we wer bak 2 same cash levels as of pre demon bt wth share of higher denominations reducing from 86% 2 70% whch wl b brought dwn even further.
17/n

Yes ppl wer inconvenienced due 2 it bt tht's wht happens whn v allow muck 2 accumulate. evry cash transactn (hwevr small amt is), seller gets a chance 2 remain outside tax net. this is the main reason y our IT base is so small but is now almost doubled thks 2 demon & GST
18/n

F1: what about GST? i heard from many ppl that it has forced many ppl to close their shops n be out of business.
19/n

F2: really?? GST combined 17 forms of taxes in2 1 single tax so ppl nw hv 2 deal wth just 1 agency -a big relief for them. ppl used 2 collect taxes but not deposit it thus saving huge amts of money which thy used 2 give discounts on ther products making them competitive..
20/n

now, if u r not on GST network the buyer of ur services wl not b able 2 claim the gst set off & hence he doesnt hv incentive 2 do biz with u.this has forced mny ppl 2 b on gst network bringing thm in tax authorities radar which means they cant skip the income taxes anymore.
21/n

this single process has made many of them lose their tax evasion opportunity due 2 whch thy no longer can give incentives / discounts on their products making them expensive than earlier.. now they are forced 2 compete based on their product capabilities & not tax evasion.

22/n

ths itself hs forced mny ppl 2 think if biz is viable option or not. those who r in this frm long term perspective hv grudgingly accepted this & got onto GSTN while others hv silently shut their shops n moved out. they r the ones who r grumbling n spreading fear about GST.
23/n

as an honest tax payer, am very happy tht tax evaders since so many years r now brot 2 ther feet & shown their place..
F1: but dont u think this will push many ppl away from bjp/modi
F2: didnt i tell u that modi doesnt take decisions based on political win or loss.
24/n

if india had to increase its tax base, demonetization & gst were 2 major steps that were needed and they r now well n truly in place & I salute modi & jaitley for belling the cat despite political challenges..

25/n

F2: look at the number of bank accounts, toilets LPG cylinders, electricity, roads & many other initiatives that modi govt has taken..
F1: but hey ppl in cities had all these amenities how did it benefit us? infact i had to give my gas subsidy also

26/n

F2: see subsidy on gas cylinders was brot yrs ago as an incentive 2 make ppl move to LPG but after that subsidy shud hd bn taken away.. tell me y did ppl have to be given subsidy for gas that they use for their cooking purposes?
27/n

and worse still this subsidy was given to one & all so even amitabh bachan & ambanis had this subsidies as u & I. is this fair? and all this while close to 3 crs families still without even an LPG connection.. isnt this gross mismatch of resources.

28/n

thts y modi requested well off guys 2 give up subsidies not for his personal needs but to provide LPG connection to those 3 crs families where the women used to use wood, kerosene & such resources for cooking which used to cause severe respiratory ailments to them.
29/n

now they have enough time on hand to take up some additional work to increase their family income or spend time with their kids for their education.. this helps the poor families..now u see how your given up subsidy has brought a smile to faces of so many ppl?

30/n

F1: thanks yaar but i didnt think of it that way.. what about banks & toilets then? how did it help me?
F2: See close to 15 crs bank accounts were opened in last 4 yrs.. these were zero balance accounts. today they have 90000 crs parked in them.

31/n

it means money kept in almirahs or under pillows is coming 2 banks n ppl r earning interest on thm.. @ 4% int rate, ppl hv earned 3600 crs interest pa & govt has had to borrow 90k crs less saving them ~ 6% int which is almost 5400 crs rs..
32/n

F1: u still hvnt answered whts in it for ppl like u & me?
F2: due 2 these bank accounts the benfits that govt has for poor people is now sent directly to their bank accounts without any middlemen so its 100% leak proof n every money reaches its target without any leakages.
33/n

this benefits us because the entire leakage in the system is often compensated using tax payers money. so now that tax payers money is used for some other constructive purposes.

34/n

F2: as regards toilets, isnt it a shame that girls in many villages used to drop out of schools after 7th standard as they didnt have seperate toilets in schools?

35/n

also can u imagine the agony that the women folks have to go through if they have to wait until sunset to attend natures call for which they have to go to a far off place. how unsafe is that.. imagine your wife, sister or mother having to go through it..

36/n

if my money is used 2 remove that insecurity frm womens lives isnt it a great step? if ur money is utilised 2 keep girls in school isnt tht improving society as a whole?
infact v shud nw b happy tht our money is nw bn utilised for all constructive things w/o any leakages.

37/n

F1: bhai hv u seen the condition of roads in our city? it takes 3-4 hrs 2 travel to & frm office.
F2: I knw it hurts but thats under the purview our corporator / mla / cm. v need 2 hold thm accountable fr it whch v hardly do bt i wish v had smbdy like modi in ther position 2
38/n

F1: yaar this time i want modi ji to extend some tax benefits to us middle class
F2: yes thats a realistic expectation but i wouldnt be surprised if it doesnt happen this time but may be in next term
F1: y do u say so?

39/n

F2: while tax collections hv incrsd govts share 2 states hv also risen.
tax collection for FY18-19 r likely 2 b 22+L crores of whch 35% (7.5L crs) gvn 2 states
of bal 14L crs hv 2 pay int of ~6L crs whch leaves them with 8L crs for use for various development purposes..
40/n

from this 8L crs thy hv 2 spend on defence, agri, education, infra, energy, social causes & share funds on some of the projects with the states. we are still having to borrow money to meet these expenses so i feel a cut in Income Taxes is still some time away.

41/n

it wl come whn our income increases (by bringing more ppl in tax net) & expenses go down especially interests & debts & also the funds transferred to states is utilised better by them.
this link will help you to get some idea on the numbers -

https://twitter.com/oarhtanirs/status/1075040087203827712

42/n

F1: bt i am absolutely nt convinced y modi govt didnt reduce fuel prices when intl crude oil prices were going down big time..
F2: i urge you to read this & understand why it was not done & actually by not doing so how did we benefit eventually.

https://twitter.com/oarhtanirs/status/1074877918256525312

43/n

F1; oh I see.. it means we still have a long way to become a developed nation huh?
F2: Yes my friend. the time taken 2 get there cn b reduced drastically if v maintain same level of growth n focus as it is now..

44/n

hence v need 2 keep modi n bjp in power with a clear majority in 2019
i hope u wl share this with ur relatives, friends & colleagues too

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