Thread by @oarhtanirs

Dear fellow Indians, v hv stood firmly by BJP govt thru Demon, GST & many othr systemic changes tht ths govt has brot abt over past 5 yrs. v hear of doubling IT returns filers & huge surge in Tax collections & its pretty obvious v r all expecting some gains thru IT relief
1/n

In the next few tweets I try to analyze this demand of ours through data from past several yrs.. kindly have a look at the attached pic for the data..
Lets see is the govt finances really ready at this stage to pass on some significant tax savings to us?

2/n

As u can c frm data, over the past 5 yrs
1. IT has incrsd by ~ 17% CAGR
2. Indirect Tax + GST has incrsd by ~18%
3. Total Tax revenues incrsd by ~15% CAGR
however,
1. Outgo to states has also gone up by 20% CAGR, thus leaving overall Revenue increase by CAGR ~ 11%

3/n

33% of revenues of 17+L crs (~5.76L crs) goes 2 paying interest of the debt that we hv accumulated over yrs.
so of the bal 12+L crs v need 2 spend on other developmental activities which includes
a. partial debt repayment
b. defence
c. infra
d. agri
e. & others

4/n

A def sys tht was paralyzed for almost a decade, needs massive overhaul & spending 2 come up 2 speed on the requirements so defence spending cant b curtailed..
A nation hungry for infra development mandates govt spending in this domain which also creates jobs across sectors
5/n

Rajiv Gandhi in 1985 openly said tht of every INR sent frm Delhi, only 15ps reached the needy. the 85 ps was lost 2 middlemen, politicians, tax evaders & many othrs in the system.. in the last 5 yrs v hv seen tht ths has clearly bn reversed & max of INR reaches the needy
6/n

this reversal has allowed more money in the hands of the govt to carry out their development program but as we have seen we are still some time away from any drastic tax benefits (yes some more small tweaking n changes may b made to put some more money in hands of ppl)
7/n

this is the time that we need to stay patient and allow the seeds of growth to bear the results.. yes on the income receipts side we have seen the change but we have also have so much clean up to be done in banks NPA, subsidies bill etc etc..
8/n

as most of the major investments in infra projects also start yielding revenues, we will soon see a huge surge in income n a substantial reduction in expenditure which will leave money in hands of govt, part of which they can use to provide a drastic tax relief to us..
9/n

if in 2019 v dont bring back modi/BJP, a lot of this good work wl b undone / stalled & v wl get back 2 era of stagnant / paralyzed grwth.
I am willing 2 b patient & give modi/BJP a chance in 2019 2 continue good work 2 help us enjoy fruits of patience.
What abt u all?
10/10