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Paul Krugman
@paulkrugman
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Thanks to the rise of fracking, oil prices have become a big driver of US investment. This matters a lot in a couple of ways 1/ budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/issues/2018/12…
One is that oil price hikes, which used to be contractionary -- they played a big role in the 1974-5 and 1979-82 slumps -- are now expansionary for the US economy 2/
The other is that the 2017 tax cut looks even worse than we thought. Apologists point to a modest rise in business investment; this analysis says that was entirely due to oil prices 3/
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Paul Krugman
@paulkrugman
So, some commentators didn't get the memo -- or, actually, the poll. They filed their hot takes about how Howard Schultz does too reflect public demand for a centrist before they saw Change Research's poll 1/ medium.com/@ChngRsrch/pre…
FWIW, political scientists tell us that social liberals/economic conservatives -- the "Howard Schultz quadrant" -- are about 4 percent of the electorate. Sure enough, he has 4 percent approval ... 2/ washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/…
And while pundits keep telling us that Democrats are going too far left, the public is actually quite far left on economic issues. For example 3/ thehill.com/hilltv/what-am…
Read 5 tweets
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Paul Krugman
@paulkrugman
Many people have urged those of us in the chattering classes to ignore Howard Schultz. But they're wrong, for two seemingly opposed reasons: there are both sinister and comic aspects to his candidacy, and the latter can be used against the former 1/
The sinister side: in part, Schultz and other potential billionaire independents are trying to blackmail Democrats into avoiding a progressive economic agenda, even though such an agenda is popular. Brian Beutler made this point the other day 2/ crooked.com/articles/howar…
And Ed Luce said much the same thing yesterday 3/ ft.com/content/9e9f00…
Read 7 tweets
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Paul Krugman
@paulkrugman
This is a very good piece on the puzzle of billionaire greed. Billionaires can already afford anything they want. Why are they so eager for tax cuts that let them keep even more of the money that does nothing for them? 1/ lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2019/01/what-i…
Much of the reward to extreme wealth is a kind of status/power competition: "seeing em jump," as Tom Wolfe brilliantly put it 2/ books.google.co.vi/books?id=fccDA…
But a tax that everyone pays won't even affect relative status! So the demand for low taxes by the super-wealthy is actually a psychological mystery, and sicker than even progressives realize 3/
Read 3 tweets

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Altered Squid
@AlteredSquid
It’s been just over six months since I found out I’m an evil terf. Until then I didn’t know what a terf was, or why anyone would want to punch one.
Even now I find it impossible to accept that I am little better than a nazi, or that my beliefs promote the genocide of trans folks. I can’t accept it, and neither can I shift my thinking so as to escape my self-imposed terfdom.
I guess I’m just a bad person, full of hatred; a foolish pawn of right-wing Christians and an unwitting supporter of the moronic psychopath Donald Trump.
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Jennifer Doleac
@jenniferdoleac
Since this was so well-received, I'm going to do it again. There are lots of female econ Ph.D. candidates on the market this year -- great news for those trying to diversify their interview pools!

Women on the 2018-19 econ job market, in no particular order:
Lorena Keller

JMP: "Capital Controls and Risk Misallocation: Evidence from a Natural Experiment"

Website: kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/keller…
Aiday Sikhova

JMP: "Better Parents or Richer Parents: Understanding Intergenerational Transmission of Human Capital”

Website: aidaysikhova.com
Read 245 tweets
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Seth Hanlon
@SethHanlon
Trump said today that he's considering using executive authority to cut capital gains taxes through so-called "indexing." Here are some resources on why that is both terrible policy and illegal. 1/

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Here, tax economist Len Burman explains why indexing capital gains would worsen inequality (since millionaires pay 77% of cap gains taxes), would add to budget deficits, and open up new tax shelters for the wealthy. 2/

taxpolicycenter.org/taxvox/indexin…
My colleagues @schwartzandrewp and @GgrHendricks here provide an overview of why indexing cap gains will rig the economy against workers, showing how cap gains indexing is even more skewed to the wealthy than the Trump-GOP tax law (TCJA). 3/

americanprogress.org/issues/economy…
Read 9 tweets
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Jeffrey Brown
@IlliniBizDean
1 Making use of time on airplane, this thread is meant as a (non-partisan) discussion of capital gains taxation, in light of President Trump’s interest in indexing capital gains to inflation.
marketwatch.com/story/heres-wh…
2 First, what does it mean to index capital gains? If you buy an, sell it 10 years later at $150, today you pay cap gains tax on the $50 increase. Under indexation, you would pay tax only on the $25 of gain over and above inflation. A tax cut.
3 As with any tax policy, we should consider behavioral responses (efficiency) & distributional aspects. I focus on efficiency b/c distributional effects clear (benefits go to those who own lots of assets, aka, the wealthy as reported by @kentsmetters)
budgetmodel.wharton.upenn.edu/economic-matte…
Read 19 tweets
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Chad Bolt
@chadderr
Alright, alright. I'll bring it full circle in this final hour before the Senate votes. From the beginning we've been calling the #GOPTaxScam just that -- a scam. What makes it a scam? Here goes. (And all of my tax friends should jump in.) 1/
"This bill is a gift to the middle class."

On the contrary. By 2027, 83% of the benefits of the #GOPTaxScam go to the top 1%. taxpolicycenter.org/sites/default/… 2/
It was NEVER designed to be a gift to the middle class. Its key features are a massive corporate tax cut, further erosion of the estate tax, and new tax breaks for hedge funds, private law firms, and the Trump Org. It lowers the tax rate on millionaires. 3/
Read 9 tweets

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