Thread by @ddiamond

SCOOP: Trump to use Tuesday’s #SOTU speech to call for an end to HIV outbreak in America by 2030. (And his health lieutenants think it’s possible.)

Story currently on @POLITICOPro. More TK.

Now out from the firewall. politico.com/story/2019/02/…

Trump’s new pledge to fight HIV would come after two years of moves — like trying to cut AIDS funding and pursuing anti-LGBT policies — that have often alarmed scientists and HIV advocates.

A key driver of Trump’s plan is ROBERT REDFIELD — the head of the CDC and a prominent AIDS researcher.

Redfield used to advocate abstinence and oppose strategies like condoms + needle exchange. But he says he’s swayed by the evidence and realizes they’re necessary to combat HIV.

Seeing many reactions to this story that are somewhere between snark and skepticism — which makes sense, given the Trump administration’s track record on HIV and LGBT-related issues.

Think there are a few details that might help non-health care folks w context. (thread)

https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/1092236185848680449

1) It’s not implausible to pledge to end HIV outbreaks — in fact, the World Health Organization has set the same goal of ending HIV transmission by 2030. who.int/hiv-aids/lates…

So Trump would be following in other countries’ footsteps with this promise.

2) In the U.S., Obama similarly pledged that HIV transmissions could be ended within a generation. Independent health experts also believe it’s possible.

Here’s a great @HelenBranswell story on the theory vs the strategy of stopping HIV/AIDS. statnews.com/2018/09/26/hiv…

3) For folks suggesting that Trump will just announce “No more HIV” — or something worse — that’s not the plan.

U.S. health agencies are standing by to unveil a bigger strategy post-speech that evokes traditional, nonpartisan efforts. At least some AIDS advocates are on board.

4) One clear issue — which our story details — is that Trump has spent two years making *many* moves that created setbacks and distrust with HIV advocates.

Am v. familiar with this, because we broke a lot of those stories like politico.com/story/2018/02/… and politico.com/story/2018/09/…

5) That’s why it’s especially necessary to scrutinize the people — and policies — that Trump is putting in place here.

But worth noting the administration (even Pence, who changed his mind) supports policies like needle exchange and other accepted public health tactics.

6) For folks who ask “why is Trump prioritizing HIV now?” it’s a combo of things, per reporting.

- His health team sees it as a problem, with 40,000 new HIV infections per year
- They also see it as achievable goal, given science and trends
- Potential for bipartisan appeal

7) Among the questions that we’ll be tracking:

- Will Trump keep pursuing efforts that hurt HIV patients even as he makes this big, new promise?

- Does Trump’s team, which has committed to other major healthcare goals, have the organizational competence to pull all of this off?

8) Anyway - here’s the story, out from the Pro firewall. politico.com/story/2019/02/…

If I missed something, or you have questions (or tips!), my DMs are open and I’m [e-mail] by email.

The NYT tonight got @SecAzar to confirm POLITICO’s scoop about Trump’s HIV plan. nytimes.com/2019/02/04/us/… The announcement has been in development for months.

Correction - HHS staffer tells me that these remarks weren’t given to the NYT. (They were from a speech that Azar gave a few weeks ago, though that isn’t noted in the article.)

Trump just formally announced the plan to end HIV transmission.

One striking line in the White House press release: Celebrating the success of the 15-year-old PEPFAR program.

** Trump has repeatedly tried to cut funding for that program! **