Profile picture
Charles Gaba
@charles_gaba
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Wisdom aside, anyone have any back of the envelope math on how much this would actually generate (assuming no other impact on job shifts, employment, pay rates etc)?
Several folks say it’d likely be something like $300 - $350 billion/yr. We’re currently projected to spend $2.4 trillion in PRIVATE healthcare spending in 2021, so that 4% payroll tax would only replace around 15% of it, requiring cutting total spending by over 40%.
The Mercatus study projected that Bernie’s MFA bill would cut total spending by around 3.5%. Even if you think they’re being too conservative (they ARE anti-MFA, after all), that’s quite a gap.
acasignups.net/18/12/02/dear-…
Here’s the Mercatus study projections of Bernie’s MFA compared to CMS’s current 10-year National Health Expenditure projections. Any new or increased taxes/revenue would fall on the top side of the dotted line.
In @SenGillibrand’s defense, she doesn’t say the 4% payroll tax would be the ONLY funding source. Presumably it’d be in addition to other corporate taxes, increased capital gains tax, a higher top marginal rate or whatever.
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Charles Gaba
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @charles_gaba see all

Profile picture
Charles Gaba
@charles_gaba
THREAD: If you’re talking about how to pay for a BernieCare-style 100% “pure” MFA plan, it’s helpful to start out understanding what total healthcare spending is CURRENTLY projected to look like over the next decade.
1/
Last summer, there was a big deal made out of an anti-MFA study which projected that Bernie’s S.1804 bill would EITHER “cost $32 trillion” OR “save $2 trillion”, depending on your POV. BOTH are true conclusions. 2/

acasignups.net/18/12/02/dear-…
Here’s the two key graphs. The first shows how much CMS projects the U.S. will spend out until 2031 under CURRENT law. That’s TOTAL spending by EVERYONE for EVERYTHING. Below the dotted line is public spending, above the line is private. 3/
Read 11 tweets
Profile picture
Charles Gaba
@charles_gaba
Sen. Sanders’ July 2017 version of S.1804 included no transition period. By September it would be phased in over 4 years. That’s less incremental than other plans but it’s still incremental. Honest question: Who gets to decide HOW incremental “counts” as being “acceptable”?
The ACA took 4-5 years to fully ramp up, and it only directly impacted perhaps 10% of the population, and there was still massive backlash. I’m not saying it should take 40 years, but why is 4 is the magic number? What if it ends up taking 6 or 7? Why would that be Evil?
Perhaps Bernie’s advisors crunched the data and honestly think it can be fully ramped up in 4 years. Or perhaps they went with 4 years to squeeze it into a single presidential term (though it wouldn’t kick off until at least one year into the term).
Read 10 tweets
Profile picture
Charles Gaba
@charles_gaba
AGAIN: This is among the most important differences between the various universal coverage plans on the table. The #MFA bill most of the Dem Senators running for POTUS cosponsored does NOT allow for it to be optional for anyone...but most of them cosponsored OTHER plans as well.
There’s NOTHING WRONG w/them cosponsoring multiple plans. ALL of them greatly expand publicly funded healthcare coverage, just to different degrees, different timeframes & via different frameworks. The final version will likely be somewhat different from ANY of the current plans.
The only bad thing here are purists of any plan insisting that ONLY their preference will suffice. I’m a huge fan of the #Med4America bill, but I’m not going to insist that ONLY that one is acceptable. That’s insanity.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Dr. Katherine Crocker isn’t quite on hiatus
@cricketcrocker
If you live in Ann Arbor MI, please vote in favor of establishing a quiet zone--late night train traffic has increased heavily in the last 5 years, and 5 horn blasts per train at each of 15 downtown/residential crossings is pretty rough.

opentownhall.com/portals/116/fo…
Ann Arbor city noise ordinances prohibit loud noises (cannot be audible outside your apartment/house/property) after 10pm. Which is pretty draconian, but I'm assuming people felt it was quality of life related.

So let's do some quick math on the noise production here.
Looking just at downtown Ann Arbor, there are ten train crossings within a half mile.

The volume requirement is at least 96 decibels, but no more than 110 decibels.

For reference, 85 dB is the beginning of hearing damage. 110 is above max volume for most speakers.
Read 48 tweets
Profile picture
Emily G
@EmilyGorcenski
I took a gander at some back-of-the-envelope math to try to put a comparative size estimate to the murder rates of Black trans women and nonbinary people. It's bad.

emilygorcenski.com/post/transgend…
If we took the murder rates of Black AMAB trans people in 2017 and scaled it to the white cisgender male population, we'd be witnessing over 27000 murders of white cis men. There were 4616 murders of white men in that time period.
The murder rate is almost six times higher. By comparison, this is like having a 9/11-scale attack hit your community every 5.77 weeks.
Read 5 tweets
Profile picture
Kyle Samani
@KyleSamani
0/ Thought experiment around consensus, block production, and censorship resistance

TLDR: consensus doesn't matter as much as most people think it matters
1/ The Bitcoin CVE bug that allowed miners to violate the supply schedule, but that was never actually exploited, is an incredible case study

There are two fundamental explanations for why the bug wasn't exploited:

1) no miners knew about the bug
2) miners chose not to exploit
2/ If #2 was in the fact the case - and there's no way to prove this - then this stands as the single largest game-theoretic test in the history of crypto

For the purposes of this test, let's assume that they did know

What does this mean? What can we extrapolate?
Read 21 tweets
Profile picture
Michael King, $TSLAQ Exec Chairman
@WallStCritic
The financial system is absolutely drowning in debt which suppresses interest rates, meanwhile we have real inflationary pressure both through the real economy and federal deficits. (Thread)
Back of the envelope math shows deep problems in capital heavy industries if nominal rates keep rising even if real rates are negative.
$AVB recently sold non CBD apartment buildings for 4.7% cap rate. Rising rates will obliterate the new buyers.
Rates affect asset PRICES while inflation affects asset revenues and expenses.
Say an apartment building earns $1m in NOI and is valued at $21.25m (4.7% cap), and rates and inflation both rise by 1%. The building would be worth $17.7 (yikes).
Read 11 tweets
Profile picture
Seth Cotlar
@SethCotlar
1. Thanks to @voxdotcom, I've suddenly found myself with a ton of new followers. Hello followers! I have a tendency to produce annoyingly long threads on historical topics, often related to conservatism. So here's a thread of some of those threads (in case you're interested).
2. On QAnon and the history of conspiracy theories in the US.
3. My back-of-the-envelope math trying to discern how many @gop voters have pulled the lever since 2018 for an actual Nazi or someone who could be considered Nazi-adjacent. Spoiler alert, the number has six digits.
Read 20 tweets
Profile picture
Brendan Bernstein
@BMBernstein
Some fun ETH math, illustrating the challenges ETH will be faced with pre L2:

As shown in the thread below, block size is effectively full — and there are only 4 apps with greater than 500 DAUs
What do I mean? Avg gas / transaction is ~57k right now. This is a weighted avg between the 21k gas for a regular txn and higher gas for more complex smart contracts

But as more dApps launch, the higher gas usage contracts will be weighted more, raising overall gas used per txn
As gas used rises pre L2, ETH has a *very* hard problem:

(1) Continue to keep block size capped, raising fees, or (2) increase block size raising the burden further on a full node.

@StopAndDecrypt's recent articles details this well
Read 17 tweets

Trending hashtags

#resistance #MBep8 #cdnpli #opendats #site #smatcities #cnpoli #goarmy #MarmaladeBoy #smartcites #smarcities #MBep18 #aii #MBep14 #armystrong #foodsecurity #WARNING #MBep12 #MBep11 #BCUC #longread #Sitecinjunciton #bigdats #bcpoil #au
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!