Profile picture
Michael Otsuka
@MikeOtsuka
, 9 tweets, 13 min read Read on Twitter
A new blog 👇entitled "On the significance of USS’s misrepresentation of tPR: It undermines the integrity of the consultation and USS’s case for an immediate shift to bonds".
medium.com/@mikeotsuka/on…
See this thread from yesterday👇for background.
👆@USSEmployers @ucu @AlistairJarvis @JoanneSegars @SallyBridgeland @BrinleyDavies @Sam_Marsh101 @Flibitygibity @carlomorelliUCU @HershMarion @Dennis_Leech @DaveGuppy @UofGVC @adamtickell @RedActuary @Derek_Benstead @kevinwesbroom @GuyCoughlan @USSbriefs @JosephineCumbo @Wonkhe
If it's meant as a response to my blog, the statement from #USS 👇shows a breathtaking inability to comprehend the point I raised in my blog, which was that #USS misrepresented tPR's position. 1/
Re 👇, I never said that "the approach USS has taken in constructing the discount rate in the valuation is based on a ‘Gilts-plus’ basis". 2/2
Simple questions to @GuyCoughlan of #USS: Did @TPRgovuk ever inform you that (as #USS claims) 'the final discount rate adopted for the 2017 valuation of gilts + 1.20% is still above the level the Regulator views as appropriate for a “tending-to-strong” covenant'? 1/
Or did @TPRgovuk instead communicate something flatly contradictory to the above, along lines (as per Annual Funding Statement) of 'We do not assess the appropriateness of schemes’ TPs or discount rates based on predetermined relationships to gilt yields or other indices'? 2/2
👆@USSEmployers @ucu @AlistairJarvis @JoanneSegars @SallyBridgeland @BrinleyDavies @Sam_Marsh101 @Flibitygibity @carlomorelliUCU @HershMarion @Dennis_Leech @DaveGuppy @UofGVC @adamtickell @RedActuary @Derek_Benstead @kevinwesbroom @GuyCoughlan @USSbriefs @JosephineCumbo @Wonkhe
See this new thread👇from @ucu JNC negotiator @Sam_Marsh101, in which he documents and spells out the implications of #USS's misrepresentation of @TPRgovuk on gilts benchmarks.
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Michael Otsuka
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Related hashtags

#USS

More from @MikeOtsuka see all

Profile picture
Michael Otsuka
@MikeOtsuka
A significant & I think new statement from tPR, of relevance to #USS: "We do not assess the appropriateness of schemes' TPs or discount rates based on predetermined relationships to gilt yields or other indices."
It appears, from this passage👇, that #USS's Test 1 & concern re short term reliance is grounded in pressure from tPR.
👆@USSEmployers @ucu @AlistairJarvis @JoanneSegars @SallyBridgeland @BrinleyDavies @Sam_Marsh101 @Flibitygibity @carlomorelliUCU @HershMarion @Dennis_Leech @DaveGuppy @UofGVC @adamtickell @RedActuary @Derek_Benstead @kevinwesbroom @GuyCoughlan @USSbriefs @JosephineCumbo @Wonkhe
Read 8 tweets
Profile picture
Michael Otsuka
@MikeOtsuka
Strong @USSEmployers & @UniversitiesUK support of @kevinwesbroom & John Coulthard's proposed reduction of deficit recovery contributions (DRC) from 5% to 3.5% is essential to the success of Aon's Proposal for contingent contributions. 1/
As I note in tweets 12/-14/ 👇, Aon's case for 1%, rather than 1.5%, stepped increases involves a lowering of the upper bookend rate from 33.7% to 32.2% via reduction of DRCs from 5% to 3.5%. 2/
In the recently submitted 2017 Rule 76.4 valuation, DRCs are 5%. Hence they would remain unchanged under #USS's proposed upper bookend. Aon notes 👇that keeping DRCs at 5% introduces an extra layer of prudence, given that the deficit is now much lower. 3/
Read 13 tweets
Profile picture
Michael Otsuka
@MikeOtsuka
A summary of Aon's contingent contribution proposal 👇, which @UniversitiesUK is circulating for consultation with @USSEmployers. 1/
ussemployers.org.uk/sites/default/…
"For the Proposal, we assume that 29.2% is adopted [for the lower bookend, rather than #USS's 29.2%], although it is not clear that this is achievable with the USS Trustee." 2/
Contingent contributions would be in three steps, as in #USS's proposal. But the steps would each involve a 1% increase, rather than #USS's 1.5% increase. 3/
Read 31 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Andy Parkhill
@AndyParkhill
@MikeOtsuka Apologies for the delay replying. Note, I've dropped Sam & the others from the replies - they can jump back in if they have in any further interest in this particular thread. I'm make a few points. 1/
@MikeOtsuka 1. You don't get to police my tone. IF I SHOUT, it is because I wish to make a point. This is a public discussion on Twitter - you're not dictating the terms of an essay to an undergraduate. If you don't like my tone, or where the discussion is going, feel free to end the 2/
@MikeOtsuka discussion or simply not engage further - I'll respect both. In this particular case, I also SHOUT because I'm also incredibly angry about yet another attack on those working in the HE sector. Possibly the fact I have only worked in the sector a few years, and also that I 3/
Read 13 tweets
Profile picture
Felicity Callard
@felicitycallard
This is MAJOR breaking #USS news #USSstrike
Shall we place bets on the likelihood of a certain pension consultancy being involved in this @etymologic? #USS
In comparison with solidarity that stretched across university sector during #USSstrike, Trinity College Cambridge, one of richest educational institutions found anywhere, makes entirely selfish decision to pull out of #USS through invoking spectre of the 'last man standing' risk
Read 16 tweets
Profile picture
Sam Marsh
@Sam_Marsh101
Remember how a few weeks back #USS sent me some data relevant to the valuation and, in particular, Test 1? Well, I've been playing around with it and found out some VERY interesting (if technical) things. Read on. 1/

@OpenUPP2018 @USSbriefs @ForPension

Firstly, the new data has pulled the valuation spreadsheet I've cobbled together nicely into line with numbers #USS have published in various documents. In other words, I have got a rough and ready model of the valuation which works pretty well. 2/
September valuation?
USS say 5.1bn deficit, my spreadsheet says 5.0bn

November valuation?
USS say 7.5bn deficit, my spreadsheet agrees

Cancel the de-risking (allowing for prudence)?
My spreadsheet says 0.5bn deficit, same figure I was told last year by @alanhigham100 of USS. 3/
Read 17 tweets
Profile picture
Felicity Callard
@felicitycallard
This is fascinating by @MikeOtsuka on logic & motivations of #USS Test 1 (& how Test 1 might be met without de-risking), based on talk at @bsaweel Pensions Symposium. We've invited Mike to contribute longer piece for @OpenUPP2018 at @USSbriefs medium.com/@mikeotsuka/ho… #OpenUPP2018 screen shot of part of blog post linked to in website
.@MikeOtsuka's piece links to #USS discussion document sent as response to a Qu & challenge from Mike (sent by USS & linked to a meeting Mike had w USS executives on 23 March 2018). This adds to archive of #USS materials (cc. @ForPension) drive.google.com/file/d/1Q4r6tE… #OpenUPP2018
The #USS discussion document ("Response to Prof Michael Otsuka for discussion purposes") is dated 22 March 2018 with authors Guy Coughlan, Jeff Rowney, Steve Towers. Author in document properties is Jeff Rowney drive.google.com/file/d/1Q4r6tE… #OpenUPP2018
Read 16 tweets
Profile picture
GFDavies
@gailfdavies
After a week of exploring the role of consultancies in shaping the shift to DC benefits in #USS pensions with @felicitycallard and @CLIVEYB , this week I am delighted to announce the launch of the new "Picket Pensions Consultancy" (#PicketPC ) #ucustrike #usstrike
Anyone who needs a quick recap on how consultancies shape landscapes and appetites for risk might want to check in with the archiving of this thread by pensions expert @henryhtapper henrytapper.com/2018/03/08/the… #uss #ucustrike see also #ucustrike #usstrike
If you want a longer academic read on how consultancies are contributing to reshaping the direction of financial innovation around universities, and why this matters, you can can explore the synthesis of @CLIVEYB #ucustrike #usstrike
Read 10 tweets
Profile picture
Felicity Callard
@felicitycallard
I am still following UUK, Employers Pension Forum (ucea.ac.uk/en/empres/pens…), Aon around. Still fascinated by how futures are made. #ucustrike #USSstrike
This time I'll excerpt from 2 documents stored on the UUK website: universitiesuk.ac.uk/policy-and-ana… & universitiesuk.ac.uk/policy-and-ana… NB Both still carry a 'confidential' watermark, but there isn't any firewall #ucustrike #ussstrike
We know from recent events that UUK isn't always the most technologically proficient. Maybe they forgot to take the watermark off. Maybe they forgot to put them behind the firewall. Who knows. #ussstrike #ucustrike
Read 29 tweets

Trending hashtags

#USS #uss #Dragonchain #USSstrike #JEP #MFF #GenderPayGap #USSbriefs61 #DeFi #NEW #OXCAM #UUK #NoDeficit #Twitter #ICO #WeAreTheUniversity #USSbriefs44 #USSbriefs1 #USSHasStillNotGivenAdequateBriefingsAboutRiskAnyway #New #TPR #Blockchain #USSbriefs26 #USSbriefs59 #ucustrike
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!