Thread by @ClaireBerlinski

From @NTenzer, in French but perfectly readable in English via Google Translate, a huffingtonpost.fr/nicolas-tenzer… the case for a "geopolitical Europe." Meaning,

a Europe that takes geopolitical power--not just economics and social welfare--seriously. He argues that there is one, overwhelming reason for this: Putin, with whom Europe is in a territorial and ideological war. I agree about Putin.

I'm no persuaded of the primacy of Putin as the source of the West's ills, though I understand the rhetorical purpose it serves to argue that he is. He's a big problem, and we (for some value of "we") do tend to understate, not overstate, what a menace he is.

But I've been tending a growing list titled "Causes of Liberal Democratic Decline." I use no formal definition of "democratic decline," hereinafter LDD. I want a sense of what other people think it is and what they think is causing it.

I now throw every hypothesis I encounter about DD on the list. I do so whether the idea strikes me as persuasive or nonsensical. The list is becoming ever-longer and more elaborate, with more interconnected arrows. I've noticed a few things about it.

First, most of the ideas on it strike me as plausible. LDD seems, from this list, wildly over-determined. Second, many of these ideas are a mess. Causes are mixed with effects. Effects are badly measured. Causes and correlations are confused, etc.

And we tend to latch on to one item and convince ourselves, "Here. This is it. I found the culprit. This is why we're in such a mess."

Thus an efflorescence of articles, books, speeches on the theme, "If we don't solve Problem A, we have no hope of solving problems B, C, D, and E."

e.g.: "If we don't fix our educational system, we have no hope of ... "

"If we don't get money out of politics, we have no hope of ... "

"If we don't deal with Putin, we have no hope of ... "

It may well be that one of these problems is the primary mover, overwhelmingly more important than the others, the *cause* of the others, or more solvable,

and thus more worth thinking about.

But I suspect not. Putin isn't an independent problem. As @NTenzer has argued elsewhere, he "takes advantage of the irresolution and pusillanimity of the West."

It's both a cause and a consequence of LDD. The LDD list looks more like the diagram on the left than the one on the right.

I'll keep working on it and I'll let you know if I figure out an easy way to fix it.