Thread by @paulkrugman

For what it's worth, all of the "nowcasting" estimates I'm seeing -- efforts to predict what the final number of growth will be -- are showing the economy hitting an air pocket in the 1st quarter:

NY Fed: 0.8
Atlanta Fed: 0.3
St. Louis Fed 0.3 1/

Probably this represents transitory factors incl the shutdown, not the beginning of a recession. But it reinforces the point that good growth in the 2nd and 3rd quarter last year was a blip, not the beginning of a magnificent supply-side era of growth. 2/

Rarely in the course of economic events has such a hyped – and hugely expensive – policy belly-flopped this badly. But GOP faith in the magic of tax cuts will, of course, not be affected at all 3/