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Ten years of Bitcoin: Evaluatong Bitcoin as a monetary system. #MITBitcoinExpo by @nic__carter
Currently Bitcoin processes over a billion dollars per day. Press is obsessed with txns/second but overall value moved is a better market
Lots of concern over drop in mining rewards and whether fee market will be enough to secure BTC. But what do BTC's security model?
There are three ways to approaching BTC's security model.
The threshold model looks at total security spend (I.e. electricity) where no actor could overpower majority
Stock model is an iteration on this that looks at security spend as a function percentage of market cap - it should go up over time.
Stock model seems to make more sense. If you think about a short seller attack, they need total value to be high enough to justify the attack
In the long run, Bitcoin's fees will account for security budget
There is a trade-off between keeping fees low and inflation low on the long run
So how do you design a fee model to be secure in the long run? Two models are either having lots of block space with lots of txns and so fees can stay low since there will be a lot. This is BCH and probably ETH
Bitcoin is trying to keep blocks small. Can it charge a premium for block space?
In 2017, there was a negative feedback loop between high fees and transaction volume so whenever few went up, txns dropped.
Some evidence that users haves used LTC as a spillway historically
Right now, fees only constitute 2% of Miner revenue as fees which is unlikely to be secure.
In order to get the same security budget out of BTC now through just fees would be to charge 0.5% of total txns value which it seems like users would not pay.
What are some other options?
One is to increase economic density of transactions using something like lightning so high fees are amortized ober all the txns in a channel between when it is open and closed
Another approach is to increase the semantic density. This means inserting more data using merkle trees so there is more Vue per transaction
There are a few services already doing this. E.g. Veriblock is using Bitcoin txns to borrow Bitcoins security for alternative chains
Takeaways: what constitutes security depends on attack modes, it is still not clear which mode is the best way to think about
Biggest takeaway is that if we can make Bitcoin a premium place through increasing economic or semantic density to transact then fee only model will work
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